彭博周末分析：美伊战争致卡塔尔LNG经霍尔木兹断供，印度等五大亚洲新兴市场现货采购累计花74亿美元（去年同期长协仅31亿），或加速弃用LNG转向光伏/煤电

The loss of a fifth of liquefied natural gas supply due to the US-Iran war is blowing out costs for Asia’s developing markets, and forcing a rethink of the fuel’s long-term future in the region.

Qatari shipments of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz have all but dried up since the conflict started at the end of February. That’s deprived Asian buyers of contracted supply of the power-station and industrial fuel, pushing them into the spot market where prices are surging.

The major non-China emerging-market Asian buyers — India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam — have spent a collective $7.4 billion since the start of the war on spot LNG, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of purchase tenders. A similar amount of the fuel cost about $3.1 billion under long-term contracts over the same period last year.

The more than doubling of costs threatens to tarnish the reputation of LNG as a reliable energy source, especially as it’s just a few years after another war — between Russia and Ukraine — also led to shortages and a spike in prices. The crux of the problem is that countries need gas today, as they can’t quickly change their energy mix without risking blackouts.

Longer term, though, many of them are now looking for ways to wean themselves off LNG. Renewables like solar and wind, coal, nuclear, or locally produced gas or piped supply are some of the options.

“If prices remain at such levels, we think that LNG will have a problem competing with the alternative fuels,” Fabian Kor, the executive vice president for Asia at SEFE Marketing & Trading Ltd., a German LNG buyer, said at a conference in Singapore last week.

At stake are billions of dollars of investments in what, until this year, was the fastest-growing fossil fuel with a vital bridging role in the shift away from dirtier coal to renewables. Shell Plc, one of the top producers, said in a report in August that it expected LNG demand to rise by 65% by 2050, driven mainly by South and Southeast Asia.

Whether that’s still a realistic target will be discussed at Gastech — the world’s largest LNG industry conference — in Bangkok this week. Thailand, this year’s host, has just released a long-term energy plan that set a goal of getting a minimum of 65% of its electricity from renewables by 2050, which will come partially at the expense of natural gas.

Solar is becoming an attractive option for some developing Asian countries, especially as battery costs have come down more than 30% over the last four years.

Pakistan, once viewed as a high-growth LNG market, is likely to increase solar and hydropower generation given the direct impact of the Hormuz disruptions, said Akshay Modi, an analyst at BloombergNEF. Bangladesh, which has spent over $2 billion replacing lost Qatari LNG volumes, is rolling out incentives for consumers to install solar panels.

Back to Coal

For Vietnam and the Philippines, it could be a case of shifting back to coal, according to BNEF’s Modi. Consumption of the dirtiest fossil fuel is set to hit a record high this year as demand is bolstered by higher gas prices and a strong El Niño that’s boosting air-conditioning use, according to the International Energy Agency.

The war in the Middle East is also forcing countries to look for alternative producers to Qatar, which supplied about 20% of the super-chilled fuel before the conflict. About 80% of LNG buyers expect to shift their procurement strategy, and prioritize geographical diversification over the next few years, according to a McKinsey & Co. survey.

That could increase the appeal of projects with direct access to Asia. TotalEnergies SE and Exxon Mobil Corp. are trying to advance Papua LNG in Papua New Guinea, with a final investment decision due later this year. The US and Canada may also benefit.

Already, years of high prices have curbed LNG adoption. Some 47 proposed gas-fired power plants — totaling $52 billion — have been canceled, withdrawn or shown no progress of moving forward over the last five years in countries including the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

“If you look back a decade ago at industry forecasts, they were saying that LNG to power was going to be the main source of demand growth,” said Sam Reynolds, research lead for LNG and gas in Asia at IEEFA. “One geopolitical conflict is a really negative thing. A second geopolitical conflict is a pattern. And that is, fundamentally, being recognized by Asian countries.”