联合航空Q3盈利不及预期、Q4 EPS指引中值较共识低约47%，燃油成本飙升挤压利润

United Airlines Holdings Inc. forecast weaker-than-expected earnings for the final three months of the year, underscoring how soaring jet fuel prices are eating into airline profits despite resilient demand for air travel.

The Chicago-based carrier expects adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share, below the $1.88 analysts had anticipated on average, after fuel expenses surged 61.6% to $4.84 billion during the previous quarter.

The outlook assumes fuel prices will climb to $4.80 a gallon, up from an average of $3.90 in the third quarter, and represents another blow to an industry struggling to recover billions of dollars in additional expenses stemming from the war in the Middle East.

High fuel costs threaten to overwhelm the benefits for US airlines of higher fares and robust spending by wealthier travelers. Carriers have increasingly turned to raising ticket prices and trimming flying schedules to offset the added expenses, with little indication that the pressure will ease soon.

United reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of $2.54 a share, falling short of the average of $2.61 expected by analysts and landing near the bottom of its own forecast range. Revenue rose 17.4% to $17.88 billion, slightly below Wall Street’s estimates.

The results follow a similar warning from rival Delta Air Lines Inc., which earlier this month slashed its full-year profit forecast. Delta now expects adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share, well below the $6.50 to $7.50 range it reaffirmed in July.

The mounting pressure has prompted airlines to reconsider their flying schedules. United Chief Financial Officer Mike Leskinen said at an investor conference in September that the company would make further capacity adjustments into 2027 if fuel remained elevated.

“We are not flying to maximize market share, we’re flying to maximize profitability and free cash generation, so we’ll make those adjustments,” Leskinen said.

Even so, United continues to benefit from strong spending among affluent and corporate travelers, whose willingness to pay for more expensive seats has helped insulate the industry’s largest carriers from rising costs. Premium revenue climbed 17% in the third quarter, while contracted business travel revenue jumped 26%.

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That strength mirrors trends at Delta, where Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian has said wealthier consumers continue to prioritize travel even as airlines pass along higher costs through ticket prices.

United has continued to invest in premium offerings and onboard amenities to capture those travelers. The airline said its rollout of SpaceX’s Starlink service for in-flight Wi-Fi remains on track, with 640 aircraft equipped so far and the carrier planning to have 87% of its fleet outfitted by June 1, 2027.