Bloomberg：咖啡交易所库存创1999年来新低，2026-27丰产过剩未必能平息波动，逼空与大跌风险并存

After years of shortages, the world is finally getting more coffee. The question is how much of it will reach the exchange warehouses that underpin prices across the industry.

The market for arabica coffee has been unusually volatile this year, due in large part to a deeply depleted repository of beans available to settle expiring futures. Exchange-certified stockpiles have fallen to their lowest point since 1999, helping push prices close to their highest levels this year, near $3.50 a pound.

Those stockpiles need to rebuild for prices to become more stable. Otherwise, coffee roasters — and ultimately consumers — could remain exposed to sharp price swings even as global supplies improve.

There should be plenty of beans to go around: The 2026-27 season is widely expected to produce the biggest surplus in years, helped by a potential record crop in top grower Brazil. But traders and analysts are unsure whether current futures prices offer enough incentive to send those beans into exchange-managed warehouses rather than private stocks.

Exchange deliveries were a “slam dunk” when the premium for delivering coffee sooner rather than later was higher, said Judy Ganes, president of J. Ganes Consulting and a veteran commodity analyst. “The math changed, and all of a sudden it didn’t make sense to deliver as much of that.”

That distinction matters because exchange warehouses act as a backstop for the coffee industry. They absorb beans when other buyers show little interest and provide a readily available reservoir when supplies become scarce. Roasters have drawn heavily on that reservoir and are now actively buying beans in the physical market at higher prices, intercepting supplies that might otherwise reach the exchange.

Growing private inventories would still be good news for roasters and consumers after years of shortages and record prices. But without a significant recovery in exchange stocks, futures could remain volatile. Prices may have to rise to encourage more deliveries, potentially forcing traders with short positions to buy back futures and amplifying the rally.

“There’s the possibility that someone gets squeezed,” Ganes said.

That can ultimately feed through to the price of a latte. Futures serve as a basis for the prices that many roasters pay for beans, with their final cost typically based on the futures price plus a premium or discount for quality. Consumers are still feeling the pinch of a historic run-up in coffee costs two years ago, and Folgers maker JM Smucker Co. has cited elevated futures as a reason for delaying plans to cut prices.

Oliver Broster, senior manager of coffee analysis at Expana, said the looming surplus creates the risk of a steep decline in prices, meaning the exchange should already be an attractive destination for some beans.

Some beans are starting to arrive. More coffee from Brazil entered certified stocks in September than in each of the prior 18 months. But the sudden influx of tens of thousands of bags sent futures plunging, and arrivals have since slowed.

The fact that around 72% of Brazilian coffee bag arrivals passed an exchange quality test that month — an unexpectedly high rate in line with past years — also pressured prices, since heavy rains had raised fears about potentially widespread damage to the crop.

“It’s a huge crop. So in comparison with last year, there’s still a large quantity of excellent-quality Brazil,” Broster said.

Still, Brazilian growers have little reason to rush. Flush with cash from record coffee prices in previous harvests, producers have been able to hold beans for longer than usual while waiting for higher offers.

Brazilian coffee likely to meet the Intercontinental Exchange’s quality standards is also good enough to be “really getting a premium in some markets” beyond what the exchange can pay, said Marcelo Moreira, a Brazil-based analyst with Archer Consulting. A surge in Brazil’s currency this month on election results may further discourage farmers from selling unless the dollars they receive for exports also rise.

Beans from sought-after origins like Colombia are likewise commanding higher premiums, making near-term deliveries to the exchange a less profitable option, according to StoneX senior trader Tomas Araujo.

Araujo expects between 50,000 to 70,000 Brazilian bags could reach the exchange in October, enough time to pass certification and settle December futures. Already, there are about 14,000 more bags of Brazilian coffee pending a quality check in ICE-licensed warehouses than there were at the end of September.

But that’s less than predictions just weeks ago when futures were higher.

“The rise of exchange stockpiles reflects a certain abundance of coffee and usually softens prices and calendar spreads,” Brazil-based coffee broker Thiago Cazarini said. “But it has to be a significant rise. Otherwise importance is very little.”