DBRS：法国本轮骚乱保险损失或低于12亿欧元，对大型险企仅为可控盈利扰动、非资本事件

The damage wrought cross France by the recent street riots will demonstrate the extent of current insurance coverage, just months before a new state-backed system kicks in, according to DBRS Morningstar analysts.

“The latest French unrest reinforces a broader trend we already identified in 2023: riots and civil commotion increasingly exhibit characteristics traditionally associated with catastrophe risks,” DBRS Morningstar analysts Marcos Alvarez and Elisabeth Rudman said in a note published Tuesday. The new regime “should reduce uncertainty surrounding the allocation of extreme riot losses” once implemented, though French insurers “remain reliant on the existing combination of private insurance, reinsurance and potentially contentious state recourse” until then.

Read More: France Toughens Protest Response as Officials Admit Failure

Protests across France drew more than half a million people on Saturday across the country, but some deteriorated into violence and looting. Some 2,397 people were arrested that day, according to Interior Ministry figures released late Sunday. The unrest has since calmed down.

It’s not the first time the country has been hit by violent demonstrations, with another peak happening a little over three years ago. The government subsequently reformed riot insurance.

“The most important structural development since the 2023 riots is France’s decision to establish a dedicated public-private framework for riot insurance,” the analysts said. “The reform reflects growing concerns that repeated episodes of severe civil unrest could eventually make riot coverage difficult or prohibitively expensive to provide through conventional insurance alone.”

The new framework envisages mandatory risk coverage within relevant property insurance contracts, combined with a mutualisation mechanism supported by the French State and managed through the CCR, according to the analysts. The regime is designed to let insurers transfer a substantial proportion of qualifying riot losses to the mechanism, providing the market with a public backstop for potentially systemic civil-unrest events, they said.

Read More: Rich World’s Growing Civil Unrest Has an Insurance Sting

“The principal concern for insurers is not necessarily the severity of an individual claim,” the analysts said. “Rather, it is the potential aggregation of thousands of correlated claims across commercial property, motor, government property and business interruption portfolios when unrest spreads rapidly across several cities.”

The analysts estimated insured losses from the latest turmoil to remain below €1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion). While that would represent a “meaningful earnings loss” for the French property and casualty insurance industry, it would be “unlikely to translate into a capital event or materially affect the credit profiles of the country’s major insurers.”

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure met this week with insurers, as well as business federations and banks. He announced on Tuesday support measures for businesses directly affected.

Insurance companies including Axa SA and BPCE Assurances have extended the deadlines for reporting claims to 30 days, from the usual 5 days.