彭博调查：83%日本央行观察者预期12月加息，10月30日料按兵不动

More than 80% of Bank of Japan watchers anticipate the central bank’s next interest rate increase will come in December, according to a recent Bloomberg survey. None expect a hike when the bank concludes its next meeting on Oct. 30.

Some 83% of economists forecast the bank will raise borrowing costs from the current level of 1.25% at its meeting ending on Dec. 18. Just last month, only 35% forecast a hike in December. In that survey, January was the most popular pick for the next rate hike.

The latest survey results also show that 67% of respondents expect the BOJ to raise rates every three months, up from 46% in the last survey. That points to expectations that the BOJ will maintain the same tempo of rate hikes after it raised rates in September for the second time in three months, the fastest pace since 1990.

Click here to view the full results of the survey.

Many economists said that the biggest focus of the October gathering will be the BOJ’s assessment of whether underlying inflation has hit its target level of 2%. It has yet to declare the goal has been reached since it set its price stability goal in 2013.

“If it does, the challenge going forward will be to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation with a view to firmly anchoring inflation at 2%,” Keiji Kanda, chief economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, wrote in a survey response. He expects rate hikes in December and March.

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s board raised borrowing costs to 1.25% about a month ago, stepping into its estimated range of a neutral rate between 1.1% and 2.5% for the first time. That has spurred greater market interest in where rates will peak in this hiking cycle.

The median forecast of the terminal rate remained at 1.75% in the latest survey. Some economists noted potential obstacles from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government in the BOJ’s rate hike path.

While Takaichi is known as a supporter of monetary easing to help spur growth, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently urged Japan to drop reflationary policies. That was followed by a flurry of remarks by Takaichi and her cabinet ministers that they are not pursuing reflation.

Given those remarks, about two thirds of economists assessed that Takaichi government has softened its stance on BOJ rate hikes, according to the poll.

“The prime minister’s office probably doesn’t really welcome further BOJ rate hikes,” said Naomi Muguruma, chief bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities “Still, it appears likely it will stand by and tacitly accept them for the time being, mainly because of relations with the US.”

Ueda’s September rate hike was met by two dissenting votes from board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, both picked by Takaichi. That opposition helped the yen weaken and has kept board votes as a focus among BOJ watchers. At the same time, Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, sees a chance for Hajime Takata, a hawkish board member, to call for back-to-back rate hikes at this meeting.

In a quarterly economic outlook report to be released with the BOJ’s policy statement in October, BOJ watchers expect the bank’s inflation outlook to remain more or less the same as before, except for a slight upward tweak for next fiscal year, according to the survey.

“The BOJ is likely to indicate that it sees underlying inflation as having reached around 2%,” said Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. “We expect the bank to leave policy unchanged this month, but it is likely to be a hawkish hold.”