Bloomberg周度综述：黄金在6月来最大周跌后小幅反弹回4000美元上方，本周美联储会议加息概率已不足10%

Gold edged higher – after its biggest weekly drop since June – as traders weighed reduced prospects for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting.

Bullion rose as much as 0.6% to nudge back above $4,000 an ounce, after dropping more than 4% last week. Oil pulled back from a six-month high as the US and Iran traded familiar rhetoric in their conflict, while stocks staged a modest recovery after a selloff fueled by concerns around the artificial intelligence trade.

Still, bullion remains under pressure after dropping on Friday to the lowest since July. As well as inflationary pressure from stubbornly high energy prices, the latest dip below $4,000 an ounce was spurred by a rotation out of AI-related stocks into bonds, with gold sold off as investors tried to cover losses in equities.

“Gold is supported by a general improvement in risk appetite,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank AS. “Everything is so connected with last week’s AI correction and oil surge,” he added. “The part-reversal is giving markets – including gold – a bit of breathing space.”

Bullion has fallen by about a quarter since the US-Iran war began in late February, driven down by tighter monetary policy as major economies attempt to rein in inflation. Expectations around the Fed’s interest-rate path have shifted over the past month, adding to uncertainty around the near-term prospects for the precious metal.

Traders initially raised bets on an October hike after hotter-than-expected inflation prints, before comments by central bank officials reined in such forecasts. The market is now pricing in a less than 10% chance that the Fed will increase rates when it meets later this week, although elevated energy prices are still prompting bets on a hike before year-end. Higher borrowing costs are a headwind for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.

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In another bearish sign, holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds fell more than 10 tons on Friday, according to a preliminary tally from Bloomberg. That followed a more modest draw the day before. Recent trends in the ETF space had drawn particular scrutiny, as they’d expanded every week since mid-July to hit a multi-year high despite the steady retreat in underlying prices.

“The lack of response to a more supportive rates backdrop suggests selling pressure may not fully have run its course,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Near-term risks remain tilted to further consolidation, but the demand backdrop should provide some cushion once liquidation pressure fades.”

Spot gold edged up 0.2% to $4,005.47 an ounce at 2:28 p.m. in Singapore. Silver rose 0.1% to $53.92 an ounce, having given up 5.4% last week. Platinum and palladium declined. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, was marginally lower.