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📰 BloombergBloombergDoubao · 实盘不做把握 7/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·🕒 发布 09:00:00·⟳ 抓取 09:09:34 +9m34s·⚡ 决策 09-15 09:12:42 +3m08s·42.7 天前

Bloomberg报道巴基斯坦驴屠宰产能扩张,东阿阿胶原料供应故事缺乏可交易增量

报道提供的是未上市公司扩产与行业供应故事,对东阿阿胶仅能证明潜在原料渠道和战略关系,未能量化为采购金额、成本下降或业绩增量;相关合作在2025年3月及2026年8月已有传播,短线预期差不足。

📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
China’s taste for an exotic meat and a prized collagen is helping seed an unusual business hundreds of kilometers away…
不做 东阿阿胶(000423.SZ)
未披露上市公司约束性采购金额、采购量、价格优势或排他条款;合作备忘录早已公开,且项目直接受益主体瀚耕不可交易,缺乏可执行的短线正期望。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

巴基斯坦驴皮出口可能缓解阿胶行业上游约束,但瀚耕规划年化约29.2万头的规模只占行业年屠宰量的一小部分,且没有证据证明东阿阿胶获得约束性低价供应。对67亿元年收入体量的东阿阿胶而言,该报道更像长期供应链素材而非新的短线盈利催化。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2025-03-20 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2025-03-20官方/地方媒体披露合作闪电新闻非一手原文 ↗
    东阿阿胶在中巴驴产业合作交流会上发布巴基斯坦毛驴产业化项目计划书,并与巴方代表签署备忘录,合作方向早已公开。
  2. 2026-08-20行业媒体扩散The Daily CPEC非一手原文 ↗
    中巴驴产业十年合作及东阿阿胶认可瀚耕为战略伙伴的说法在Bloomberg报道前已经传播。
  3. 2026-09-14 21:00 ET财经媒体扩散Bloomberg一手源原文 ↗
    Bloomberg以特写形式补充瀚耕日屠宰800头、月外汇收入500万至700亿美元目标、累计出口五柜等运营细节,但未披露东阿阿胶的约束性采购条款。

关键理由

  • 非洲驴皮贸易限制强化后,巴基斯坦新增合规供应源对东阿阿胶的原料安全有长期正面意义。
  • 但瀚耕月收入目标仅500万至700万美元,且报道未给出东阿阿胶采购份额、定价或排他性,无法估算上市公司利润增量。

主要风险

  • 若后续公告证实东阿阿胶签订大额、独家或低价长期采购协议,当前低估原料改善的判断需要修正。
  • 巴基斯坦项目曾因官僚审批短暂停运,检疫、清关、当地存栏和动物福利监管均可能限制扩产兑现。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-14 · 影响 weakens
    Bloomberg亦报道瀚耕曾在2026年5月因官僚障碍短暂停运,取得政府批准后才恢复,说明扩产和出口连续性存在执行风险。
    检索:Hangeng Pakistan donkey plant shutdown May 2026 bureaucratic hurdles export restart 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 日期 2026-04-01 · 影响 weakens
    券商研报提示驴皮价格波动会影响毛利率,但也指出公司已建立国内+国际双重供给;本次单一巴基斯坦项目难以证明显著成本改善。
    检索:东阿阿胶 2025 驴皮 国内外采购 稳定 供应体系 毛利率风险
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2025-03-20 · 影响 weakens
    合作方向和战略关系在Bloomberg特写前已经公开,当前消息不属于首次披露的上市公司级订单。
    检索:东阿阿胶 巴基斯坦 毛驴 产业化 备忘录 2025 战略伙伴 瀚耕 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例不足与基本面materiality不足共同支持不做,而非用小仓试探。

方向:未找到可用于校准东阿阿胶股价的、同市场同机制且披露上市公司采购金额的原料供应先例。

涨幅量级:缺少高相似对齐样本,不能据此设定上行幅度或止盈目标。

形态:现有检索显示该合作早已分阶段公开,更像渐进式供应链信息而非突发订单;但没有足够价格样本统计见光死概率。

工具执行结果 · 成功 7 · 降级 1 · 失败 0 · 取消 0
  1. search_processed_events 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 33 ms
    {"result": "search_processed_events:agent query=`hangeng group pakistan donkey slaughterhouse gwadar dong-e-e-jiao ejiao hides exports china | 巴基斯坦 驴皮 阿胶 东阿阿胶 汉根集团 瓜达尔 出口`;结构化索引覆盖完整 72 小时;旧记录兼容扫描近 0.0/72 小时、0 条本臂决策(完整),返回 0 条候选。未命中只表示这些 agent query 表达式没有召回候选,不能据此证明消息首发或不是重复;按当前事件继续正常研判。"}
  2. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,692 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:Hangeng Group Andy Liao Dong-E-E-Jiao Pakistan donkey Gwadar strategic partner;API SearchType:web)
  3. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 2,322 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:东阿阿胶 巴基斯坦 驴皮 汉根集团 战略合作 瓜达尔;API SearchType:web)
  4. kb_search 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 2,703 ms
    {
  5. stock_quote 降级 stock_tools HTTP · 79 ms
    取价失败: not found in internal A-share market-data snapshots
  6. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,642 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:东阿阿胶 2025 年报 营业收入 净利润 000423 2025 revenue;API SearchType:web)
  7. web_search 成功 doubao_search · 1,998 ms
    豆包搜索结果(原始查询:东阿阿胶 巴基斯坦 毛驴 产业化 项目 备忘录 公告 2025 2026;API SearchType:web)
  8. search_case_library 成功 stock_tools HTTP · 4,269 ms
    {"result": "search_case_library「000423.SZ」—— 与这些标的相关的自家决策案例(本页 3 条,该标的全历史相关记录共 3 条;ENTER 只按该标的自己的腿统计):\n◆ 000423.SZ:相关历史决策 3 条 · 其中该标的 ENTER 0 条(0.0%) · 我们从没在这只票上 ENTER 过\n【对所查标的真 ENTER 过的:0 条 —— 相关案例里没有该标的自己的 ENTER 腿】\n【最近 3 条其它决策(多为「不做」,用来看这票最近在被什么消息刷屏)】\n• 2026-07-31 UTC(CST 2026-08-01) 不做 — 九年“失

原文全文

展开原文 · 3,694 字
China’s taste for an exotic meat and a prized collagen is helping seed an unusual business hundreds of kilometers away in Pakistan’s arid southwest.

A slaughterhouse in Pakistan’s Balochistan province is processing hundreds of donkeys for customers in the world’s second-biggest economy. While the meat isn’t consumed locally because of religious beliefs, it’s considered a delicacy in parts of China. But more importantly, the hides are used to make ejiao, a highly valued ingredient in traditional Chinese medicine.

Hangeng Group, which runs the abattoir and processing plants near Gwadar, is betting on growing overseas demand to quadruple daily slaughter to 800 donkeys within months.

The business could generate about $5 million a month in foreign-exchange earnings within six months, rising to $7 million within two years, Chief Executive Officer Andy Liao said in an interview in Islamabad.

That’s still a fraction of the estimated 2.3 million to 4.8 million donkeys slaughtered annually for their hides to make ejiao, according to a 2023 US Congressional Research Service report, which pegged the Chinese market for the traditional medicine at about $7.8 billion in 2021.

Ejiao is made from collagen extracted by boiling donkey skin. It is commonly used as a blood tonic to treat anemia, as well as to boost immunity and improve sleep. It is also used in cosmetics and is believed to have anti-ageing benefits.

Demand for the gelatin compound is booming in China, but the supply of donkey hides needed to make it is dwindling. China’s donkey population has plunged as millions of the animals are slaughtered each year, driving buyers to seek supplies from Africa and elsewhere.

In 2024, the African Union endorsed a continent-wide moratorium on the slaughter of donkeys for their skins and related exports after an alarming decline in their population. In a June 2025 report, animal welfare organization Brooke estimated that Africa’s donkey population could halve to about 14 million by 2040, if the continent-wide ban on the donkey skin trade isn’t enforced.

Chinese buyers are now seeking newer sources, including Pakistan, Brazil and Australia. The Islamic Republic had also previously restricted donkey hides exports after authorities found the animal’s meat was being passed off as beef and mutton in some cities.

However, the moratorium was lifted a decade later, according to a commerce ministry notification, opening the way for the country to tap into China’s growing demand.

The donkey population in the South Asian nation is growing and exceeded 6 million in 2025, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey, giving entrepreneurs such as Liao an opportunity to build the industry around an animal that has traditionally been used for transport and farm work.

Liao’s company started building the Pakistan facility six years ago and has invested about $50 million so far. It employs nine Chinese managers and roughly 500 local workers, who handle everything from slaughter and packaging to transport. The company briefly halted operations in May, citing bureaucratic hurdles, before resuming business after government approvals.

Hangeng is a strategic partner of China’s biggest ejiao producer Dong-E-E-Jiao Co., according to its posts on social media platform X.

The company sources donkeys from 11 suppliers, with each animal tagged for traceability, and aims to expand to 50 farms eventually. It has so far exported five containers of meat and hides, with its first shipment reachingChina’s Tianjin port in June after the government greenlit exports.

Liao plans to expand into breeding and set up a laboratory, before eventually branching into seafood exports.

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