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📰 BloombergBloombergCodex · 实盘不做把握 5/10不做原因:证据不足
北京时间·🕒 发布 17:08:43决策时所见发布时间偏差 −8h(已更正)·⟳ 抓取 17:23:32 +14m49s·⚡ 决策 09-04 18:05:59 +42m27s·53.0 天前

DeepSeek据称计划采购至少16万颗华为Ascend 950DT用于内蒙古AI数据中心

事件方向利好国产AI算力链,但直接主体不可交易,A股映射标的缺少本次订单的一手供货证据和可量化金额;英伟达空头也不是明确强空催化,因此不下新单。

📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
DeepSeek plans to deploy at least 160,000 of Huawei Technologies Co.’s top accelerators at a massive data center it’s b…
不做 DeepSeek-华为昇腾产业链映射(N/A)
直接受益方未上市,A股和美股映射缺少本次订单的一手供应关系、金额和收入弹性;不追主题高开。
不做 英伟达(NVDA.US)
国产替代方向偏负面但非强空催化,交付周期长且中国限制已被市场长期交易,不满足做空红线。
不做 神州数码(000034.SZ)
有昇腾服务器敞口但未被点名参与DeepSeek 160000颗950DT项目,且利润弹性不清。
不做 拓维信息(002261.SZ)
昇腾生态逻辑成立但缺少本次订单确认,主题拥挤下隔夜追涨风险大。
不做 华丰科技(688629.SH)
连接器受益链条为二阶推演,未坐实DeepSeek项目供货份额和业绩量级。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

Bloomberg独家把DeepSeek内蒙古1GW数据中心从“可能使用何种芯片不明”推进到“计划至少16万颗华为950DT”,对华为昇腾生态是增量利好;但华为和DeepSeek均未上市,A股候选多为产业链推演,缺少本次订单客户关系、供货份额、金额和交付节奏的确认。考虑950DT官方上市节奏在2026年四季度、产能受限且交付可能超过一年,短线交易更容易落到已拥挤的昇腾主题而非可核验业绩增量。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-09-04 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗ ↗ ↗

消息传播链

  1. 2026-07-31财经媒体扩散Bloomberg转述/IT之家非一手原文 ↗
    7月31日市场已知DeepSeek计划在内蒙古乌兰察布建设1GW级数据中心,但当时芯片类型不明。
  2. 2026-09-04 01:08 UTC首发Bloomberg一手源原文 ↗
    Bloomberg新增报道称DeepSeek计划采购至少160000颗华为Ascend 950DT,属于本次具体催化的首个可见来源。
  3. 2025-09官方确认/否认华为官网原文 ↗
    华为官方路线图确认Ascend 950DT和Atlas 950超节点规划,950DT计划2026年四季度上市。

关键理由

  • 若16万颗950DT最终落地,将显著强化华为昇腾在大模型推理集群中的需求验证。
  • 现有可核验销售基数无法直接映射:报道未披露订单金额、整机厂、上游份额和收入确认节奏,因此无法估算A股候选新增收入占比。
  • 对英伟达的负面影响主要是中国替代路径确认,但出口限制和中国客户转向国产芯片已是长期叙事,单条消息不足以构成强空。

主要风险

  • Bloomberg为知情人士报道,华为和DeepSeek未确认;若后续官方否认或采购规模缩水,主题映射会快速失效。
  • A股昇腾、DeepSeek一体机和国产算力链已有多轮炒作,缺少点名订单时高开追涨风险大。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-05-05 · 影响 weakens
    先进数通称DeepSeek相关一体机销售额较小、对整体业务不构成重大影响,削弱主题映射的业绩确定性。
    检索:DeepSeek 华为 昇腾 一体机 上市公司 销售额 较小 澄清 原文 ↗
  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2025-03-02 · 影响 weakens
    恒为科技曾澄清昇腾DeepSeek一体机尚处市场推广阶段、未形成销售订单,说明类似主题容易缺少收入兑现。
    检索:昇腾 DeepSeek 一体机 尚未形成销售订单 异动公告 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-04 · 影响 weakens
    报道本身说明中国客户仍偏好Nvidia且可租用海外算力;国产替代推进不足以单独构成英伟达强空。
    检索:Nvidia China Huawei Ascend replacement H200 export controls DeepSeek 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:先例降低了对A股映射票追涨的仓位和执行意愿,最终选择不做。

方向:先例只支持国产算力主题短期有情绪弹性,不足以证明未点名A股供应商有稳定超额收益。

涨幅量级:没有8分以上同市场、同机制、同规模且首发锚点干净的先例,不能用来设定有效涨幅目标。

形态:可见案例提示DeepSeek+昇腾主题在缺少订单收入时容易被公司澄清或业绩口径压制。

历史先例(按相似度)

  • 相似度 5/10 300541.SZ 2026-05-05 先进数通称DeepSeek相关一体机已有落地和洽谈投标,但销售额较小、对整体业务不构成重大影响。 原文 ↗
    事件后 +1日 +2.7% · +2日 +9.0% · +3日 +7.3% · +4日 +6.8% · +5日 +4.7%
    ⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明issuer/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同为DeepSeek与昇腾适配带来的服务器销售预期,但公司明确称相关销售额较小。
    经验:DeepSeek适配并不等于上市公司马上获得重大订单,需看到销售额和客户落地。
  • 相似度 5/10 603496.SH 2025-03-02 恒为科技澄清昇腾DeepSeek一体机处于市场推广阶段、未形成销售订单。 原文 ↗
    观察恒为科技在澄清公告后的主题退潮风险。
    ⚠非首发(转载/聚合)·来源层级不符(声明media/实为aggregator) — 该行涨幅别用来定止盈止损
    相似度依据:同属DeepSeek+昇腾主题映射,但只是公司异动澄清,不是本次大额芯片采购。
    经验:没有订单和收入确认的昇腾映射容易高位波动,不能仅凭主题热度追涨。
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原文全文

展开原文 · 6,706 字
DeepSeek plans to deploy at least 160,000 of Huawei Technologies Co.’s top accelerators at a massive data center it’s building in Inner Mongolia, which could create one of the largest known clusters of Huawei AI chips and advance China’s efforts to replace Nvidia Corp.

The AI pioneer intends to use Huawei’s next-generation Ascend 950DT chips for operating its models, though the timeline for installation will depend on Huawei’s production capabilities, according to people familiar with the matter. The startup doesn’t currently plan to use the 950DT chips for training, one of the people said, even though Huawei designed and marketed these processors to serve that more demanding function. While DeepSeek tried to train its previous models on Huawei chips, it has so far relied on Nvidia accelerators for this crucial step.

DeepSeek wants to purchase more of Huawei’s best chips, according to the people, but China’s semiconductor champion doesn’t currently have the production capacity. Shortages of components such as top-end memory will cap Huawei’s output of the 950DT at the low hundreds-of-thousands this year, one of the people said. Huawei is balancing demand from other clients and trying to export small volumes overseas, so fulfilling DeepSeek’s order could take more than a year, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a confidential deal.

If completed as envisioned, the Inner Mongolia hub will be key to driving AI development at DeepSeek, which is in talks to raise billions of dollars to build out its infrastructure. The installation would dwarf other publicly known clusters of Huawei’s Ascend processors, a meaningful step as China tries to wean itself off Nvidia components. By the time it comes online, according to one person with knowledge of Huawei’s production capabilities, China could have several clusters of that size.

DeepSeek did not respond to requests for comment and a Huawei spokesperson had no immediate comment.

More than one hundred thousand chips in a single facility would put DeepSeek’s ambitions in the ballpark of the data centers Western companies now routinely build — albeit China’s would be filled with less capable processors. Nvidia’s accelerators are the global standard for training and running AI models, but are largely prohibited from sale to China without US permission.

Huawei is one of a handful of firms central to Beijing’s goal of dominating AI despite US restrictions. The Shenzhen-based telecom titan has emerged as the Asian country’s de facto national chipmaking champion, while Hangzhou-headquartered DeepSeek has set the template for disruptive AI model releases that’s since been followed by the likes of Moonshot.

China’s Secretive New Chip Giant Is Built to Dodge US CurbsDeepSeek Is Developing Massive AI Data Center in Inner MongoliaHuawei AI Data Center Bid in Egypt Spurs US to Mull CounterUS Lead in the AI Race With China Is Rapidly Narrowing

China’s ability to produce — and eventually, export — its own AI chips is one of the defining factors of its technological competition with the US. It’s a metric closely watched by American policymakers, who have levied years of restrictions on companies including Huawei in order to stall that progress.

Those curbs have constrained Huawei’s production and performance. Bloomberg News reported last year that Huawei plans to make around 1.6 million Ascend dies in 2026: enough base components for around 600,000 of the company’s marquee 910C chips plus a smattering of other models. Unveiled around a year ago, the 950DT is an upgraded and more capable version that’s widely regarded as comparable in power to Nvidia’s previous Hopper generation of chips.

Still, even the possibility of a 160,000-chip cluster shows progress. Just six months ago, an official newspaper of tech hub Shenzhen said that it began operations of the country’s first ever 10,000-chip intelligent computing cluster using Huawei’s Ascend series — a tiny facility compared to data centers in the US. Elon Musk’s SpaceXAI brought a cluster 10 times that size online in 2024.

In June, Chinese food delivery giant Meituan said it trained an AI model using 50,000 domestic chips, without providing further details. Z.AI Co. in July completed construction of a 1-gigawatt data center it plans to fill with only Chinese-made chips, though its current installed base is low, in the ballpark of 10,000 cards.

San Jose, California-based Nvidia has complained that this transition to homemade silicon in China is the natural consequence of years of US export controls, which Washington first imposed in 2022 over concerns that American AI chips could boost China’s military.

Beijing is indeed urging China’s AI labs to switch to domestic hardware, an effort that some are embracing more fervently than others.

Why Huawei’s Chipmaking Plan Has Investors Buzzing: Explainer

China’s private sector still prefers Nvidia chips, though, as evidenced by large orders from the likes of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. after US President Donald Trump eased Washington’s restrictions. And Chinese companies can still access massive quantities of even Nvidia’s best chips by renting computing power located overseas, which doesn’t generally violate the US rules. Washington has also accused the likes of Moonshot and DeepSeek of using smuggled Nvidia hardware to fuel their AI development.

But China’s central government is holding fairly firm: while Trump’s team was prepared to allow the sale of as many as a million Nvidia H200 chips, which are the top model from a previous Nvidia generation, Beijing has so far green-lit a fraction of that total for import.

Read More: US Reviews China’s Offshore Nvidia Chip Access After AI Gains

DeepSeek is one of several Chinese companies that have optimized their models to run on domestic accelerators. The firm has asked for Beijing’s help in convincing Huawei to allocate more chips to the startup — and faster, one of the people said.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which oversees national tech policy, did not respond to a faxed request for comment.

DeepSeek’s AI infrastructure goals in Inner Mongolia are at a gigawatt scale, which at full utilization would consume enough energy to power roughly 750,000 homes. The 160,000 Ascend 950DT chips DeepSeek plans to install there would comprise only one chunk of that capacity.

It’s unclear what types of chips the AI lab plans to use for the remainder. Trump administration officials have alleged that the startup has procured Nvidia’s top Blackwell chips and installed them in Inner Mongolia, a claim Bloomberg hasn’t independently verified.

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