📰 BloombergBloombergCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10不做原因:无法执行
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:41:21决策时所见发布时间偏差 −8h(已更正)·⟳ 抓取 19:56:07 +14m46s·⚡ 决策 09-02 19:59:34 +3m27s·55.0 天前
燧原科技科创板IPO网上申购火爆,但二级市场当前无可成交增量标的
事件方向对燧原科技本身偏正面,但直接标的尚未上市交易且申购窗口在当前时点已结束;可交易映射到腾讯或同业的量级和因果不够强,因此不做。
📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
The initial public offering of Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., a company backed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., drew strong…
不做 燧原科技(688801.SH)
当前为申购超额认购新闻,688801.SH尚未上市交易且申购窗口已过;等正式上市日再按开盘价、换手和承接重新评估。
不做 腾讯控股(00700.HK)
燧原科技股权账面重估相对腾讯集团收入和市值不重大,且锁定与未实现收益约束强,缺少短线可交易edge。
不做 摩尔线程(688795.SH)
同赛道情绪联动不等于公司基本面增量,且国产GPU新股赚钱效应已被充分报道,追同业无清晰风险收益。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
结论摘要
燧原科技申购热度极高,说明国产AI芯片新股风险偏好仍强;但当前事件发生在IPO申购/配售阶段,不是上市首日二级交易信号。直接标的688801.SH尚未可连续交易,腾讯控股受益主要是非上市股权账面重估且相对集团市值不重大,同业只是题材情绪联动,缺少可复核的新增业绩敞口,最终回避。
消息传播链
- 燧原科技发行价142.18元/股、9月2日申购等核心发行安排已在8月31日晚公开传播。
- Bloomberg报道燧原科技零售申购约4073倍、约5.98万亿元申购需求,是本次新增申购热度催化。
- 转述公告显示网上发行最终中签率0.02455315%,有效申购户数约703.20万户,确认申购火爆但也说明申购已完成。
关键理由
- 燧原科技网上申购倍数和资金量显示国产AI芯片新股需求强,方向上利好发行人上市定价与首日关注度。
- 发行价142.18元/股对应募资约61.19亿元、发行后市值约611.87亿元,腾讯约20%持股可获得公开市场定价参照。
- 但腾讯2025年收入和市值基数远大于燧原股权账面价值,短线业绩增量难以量化为可交易主线。
主要风险
- 燧原科技尚未盈利,2025年净亏损约12亿元且2026年上半年仍预计亏损,上市后高估值可能导致高开回落。
- 同类国产GPU新股首日大涨先例已被中文财经媒体反复报道,真正上市前的打新热度可能已充分进入市场预期。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-01 · 影响 weakens
发行相关报道提示公司尚未盈利、2026年前三季度仍预计亏损,且按2025年收入对应较高市销率。
检索:燧原科技 亏损 市销率 风险 发行公告 2026 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-02 · 影响 weakens
Bloomberg正文显示腾讯贡献2025年收入84%,客户集中既证明需求也带来依赖风险。
检索:燧原科技 腾讯 收入占比 84% 客户集中 风险 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-09-02 · 影响 invalidates
当前信息显示9月2日为申购日、9月4日公布中签并缴款,尚非上市交易日,直接标的不可连续成交。
检索:燧原科技 9月2日 申购 上市日 交易 原文 ↗
先例如何影响了这次决策
对本次决策的影响:先例提高了对燧原科技上市首日关注度的判断,但因当前时点没有可交易688801.SH二级价格,最终仍回避。
方向:对燧原科技上市首日方向偏正面,但只支持未来上市日重新评估,不支持当前申购后直接下单。
涨幅量级:两个高相似样本显示首日涨幅可极端放大,但样本少且均为上市首日可成交事件,不能用于给当前未上市标的设置tp/sl。
形态:样本显示上市首日高换手和大振幅并存,存在高开后剧烈波动风险;当前申购热度已被媒体充分传播。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 8/10 688795.SH 2025-12-05 摩尔线程2025年12月5日科创板上市首日收涨425.46%,成交额153.07亿元。 原文 ↗
测摩尔线程688795.SH上市首日表现。
相似度依据:同为科创板国产GPU新股上市首日,机制与投资者结构高度相似,但当前事件仍处申购阶段而非上市交易阶段。
经验:国产GPU稀缺新股上市首日可出现极端涨幅,但买点必须锚在可交易上市日而非申购新闻。 - 相似度 8/10 688802.SH 2025-12-17 沐曦股份2025年12月17日科创板上市首日收涨692.95%,盘中最高涨幅超过750%。 原文 ↗
测沐曦股份688802.SH上市首日表现。
相似度依据:同为科创板国产GPU新股上市首日,且市场将其与摩尔线程、燧原科技放在同一国产GPU四小龙框架下比较。
经验:强题材新股可以延续赚钱效应,但高涨幅集中在上市首日可交易窗口,申购后不能替代上市日交易判断。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 3,252 字
The initial public offering of Shanghai Enflame Technology Co., a company backed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., drew strong demand from retail investors, as the last of the so-called “four little dragons” of leading Chinese artificial intelligence chipmakers taps the public market.
The retail portion of the IPO was 4,073 times subscribed, with individual investors submitting 7 million orders for about 5.98 trillion yuan ($890 billion) of shares, according to a Bloomberg calculation based on an exchange filing released Wednesday. That compares to the 7.1-trillion-yuan retail order book in memory chipmaker CXMT Corp.’s blockbuster offering in July, the second-biggest China debut ever.
Enflame, in which Tencent holds a 20% stake and remains a dominant customer, priced its offering on Shanghai’s technology-heavy STAR Market at 142.18 yuan per share, raising about 6.12 billion yuan ($911 million). The sale will consist of about 43 million shares, or 10% of its enlarged share capital following the IPO.
China’s AI spending boom is fueling a wave of listings across the supply chain. Though smaller than industry leaders such as Huawei Technologies Co. and Cambricon Technologies Corp., Enflame is among a handful of startups seeking to build China’s domestic AI-chip industry. Known for its AI accelerators used in cloud and data-center workloads, the company has benefited from growing demand for computing power.
Established in 2018, Enflame is the last of the country’s four little dragons to reach the public market, following Moore Threads Technology Co., Biren Technology Co., and MetaX Integrated Circuits. The group has generated strong investor interest, with Moore Threads soaring 425% on its debut in December and helping fuel enthusiasm for China’s emerging AI chip champions.
“China’s AI computing demand continues to outstrip domestic supply,” SWS Research analysts including Peng Wenyu wrote in a note. “Nvidia still commanded 55% of China’s AI accelerator shipments in 2025, underscoring the country’s reliance on foreign chips. Enflame, by comparison, held an estimated 1.7% market share, placing it among the leading domestic AI chipmakers.”
Enflame’s strong relationship with Tencent sets it apart from its peers. Sales to the tech giant accounted for 84% of total revenue in 2025, up from around 38% the previous year. Tencent’s internet and cloud platforms serve as the key commercial base for Enflame’s chips, which are used in large data centers, powering applications like chat bots, recommendation systems and generative AI.
On the flip side, it may take time before the company becomes profitable. Its net loss narrowed to 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, from 1.5 billion yuan the previous year, and Enflame forecast a loss of about 600 million yuan in the first half. Revenue, meanwhile, is expected to more than triple year-on-year to a range of 10.6 billion to 11.5 billion yuan in the first half, after growing at a compound annual rate of more than 80% between 2023 and 2025.
“Tencent’s demand for AI accelerator cards has far exceeded the company’s supply capacity,” Enflame said in its prospectus, adding it has prioritized key accounts and leveraged large-scale, high-demand deployments to refine its technology.
The retail portion of the IPO was 4,073 times subscribed, with individual investors submitting 7 million orders for about 5.98 trillion yuan ($890 billion) of shares, according to a Bloomberg calculation based on an exchange filing released Wednesday. That compares to the 7.1-trillion-yuan retail order book in memory chipmaker CXMT Corp.’s blockbuster offering in July, the second-biggest China debut ever.
Enflame, in which Tencent holds a 20% stake and remains a dominant customer, priced its offering on Shanghai’s technology-heavy STAR Market at 142.18 yuan per share, raising about 6.12 billion yuan ($911 million). The sale will consist of about 43 million shares, or 10% of its enlarged share capital following the IPO.
China’s AI spending boom is fueling a wave of listings across the supply chain. Though smaller than industry leaders such as Huawei Technologies Co. and Cambricon Technologies Corp., Enflame is among a handful of startups seeking to build China’s domestic AI-chip industry. Known for its AI accelerators used in cloud and data-center workloads, the company has benefited from growing demand for computing power.
Established in 2018, Enflame is the last of the country’s four little dragons to reach the public market, following Moore Threads Technology Co., Biren Technology Co., and MetaX Integrated Circuits. The group has generated strong investor interest, with Moore Threads soaring 425% on its debut in December and helping fuel enthusiasm for China’s emerging AI chip champions.
“China’s AI computing demand continues to outstrip domestic supply,” SWS Research analysts including Peng Wenyu wrote in a note. “Nvidia still commanded 55% of China’s AI accelerator shipments in 2025, underscoring the country’s reliance on foreign chips. Enflame, by comparison, held an estimated 1.7% market share, placing it among the leading domestic AI chipmakers.”
Enflame’s strong relationship with Tencent sets it apart from its peers. Sales to the tech giant accounted for 84% of total revenue in 2025, up from around 38% the previous year. Tencent’s internet and cloud platforms serve as the key commercial base for Enflame’s chips, which are used in large data centers, powering applications like chat bots, recommendation systems and generative AI.
On the flip side, it may take time before the company becomes profitable. Its net loss narrowed to 1.2 billion yuan in 2025, from 1.5 billion yuan the previous year, and Enflame forecast a loss of about 600 million yuan in the first half. Revenue, meanwhile, is expected to more than triple year-on-year to a range of 10.6 billion to 11.5 billion yuan in the first half, after growing at a compound annual rate of more than 80% between 2023 and 2025.
“Tencent’s demand for AI accelerator cards has far exceeded the company’s supply capacity,” Enflame said in its prospectus, adding it has prioritized key accounts and leveraged large-scale, high-demand deployments to refine its technology.
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