Amundi 开始买入两年期美债以对冲高油价引发的增长放缓风险，逐步转回发达市场长久期

Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, is looking for opportunities in global bond markets after the recent selloff, and is buying two-year US Treasuries to protect against the risk of economic growth slowing due to elevated oil prices.

The US two-year yield climbed above 4.50% last week for the first time since 2024 as traders ramped up bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. But rising bond yields and energy prices pose a risk to the so-far-resilient US economy, said Nicolas Dahan, a senior portfolio manager for global bonds and currencies at the $2.8 trillionParis-based asset manager.

Should the Fed be forced to rethink its tightening path in the face of a slowing economy, two-year yields - the most sensitive to interest-rate changes - would likely fall.

“A growth slowdown due to higher oil prices is becoming a non-electable risk,” Dahan said in an interview Friday. “Above 4.50%, we think that the US two-year can become a hedge to that risk, and that’s why we are starting to buy it to reduce our short-front end on the US curve.”

Global bond markets have been hit as hostilities in the Middle East pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel and high debt levels remained a concern. Germany’s 10-year yield touched its highest since 2009 after the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the second time since the war broke out in late February.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs in the US and throughout the world, remains within a shouting distance below the psychologically important 5% level, which it has reached only once — and briefly — since 2007.

Read more: A 5% Treasury Yield Is Raising New Risks for Markets, Economy

Amundi has been short US, European and UK fixed income, looking instead to emerging markets with strong real interest rates and economic growth, Dahan said. But with developed-market yields at current levels, there may be opportunities buy, he said.

“We are slowly coming back to being long duration,” Dahan said. “We are coming back to developed markets slowly and steadily.”

The spike in yields affects borrowing costs for corporates and sovereigns, including US mortgage rates, a politically salient metric for US voters ahead of the midterm elections, which are already at their highest level in over a year.

That’s raised the stakes for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh going into Wednesday’s policy meeting, with some investors believing the central bank is already behind the curve as inflation persists well above its target. But with the oil-supply shock, repricing of central bank policies and “capitulation on bond markets,” things could change quickly, Dahan said.

“As much as we stayed away from the core markets we now have an opportunity — the same type of opportunity we had a few years back where, within the hiking cycle, we saw many central banks pivot,” he said.