达利欧再发长文警告美债熊市远未结束，但属长期立场重申且与华尔街抄底派对立，缺乏可交易新增信息

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning that the US bond selloff is far from over as surging government and corporate borrowing collides with weakening demand from some of the world’s biggest traditional buyers.

In a LinkedIn post Tuesday, the Bridgewater Associates founder said the US is entering a phase where an expanding supply of bonds drives up yields, raising borrowing costs and increasing the debt level even further. That spiral is unlikely to end until higher rates weaken the economy and financial markets enough to bring supply and demand back into balance, he said.

“The bond bear market probably has a long way to go,” Dalio wrote.

Dalio has long warned of a looming US debt crisis and advocated investors to sell bonds and buy gold. His bearish stance contrasts with some investors and strategists, including those at BlackRock Inc. and Morgan Stanley Investment Management, who have turned bullish after 10-year Treasury yields surged to the highest in nearly a quarter century this month, approaching 5.4%.

The debate comes during a punishing year for bonds. A Bloomberg index tracking US Treasuries has lost about 2.4% as rising energy prices and a resilient economy prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, while a deluge of government and corporate borrowing added to the pressure. Treasuries are on track for their first annual decline since 2022, when they tumbled 12.5% as the Fed hiked rates aggressively to tame inflation.

Wartime Benchmark

Dalio estimates the US debt burden, measured by total borrowings and bond-service costs relative to government revenue, has reached the highest since World War II and is set to worsen in coming years.

The government is expected to roll over about $10 trillion of maturing obligations this year while adding $2.1 trillion of new borrowing, according to Dalio. With so much coming due, even a modest decline in investors’ willingness to reinvest the proceeds could create a significant funding gap, he warned.

The concern is that the appetite of some of the country’s largest foreign creditors, including China and Japan, may diminish. Japanese policy makers, for example, have an incentive to encourage domestic investors to reduce their $1.1 trillion of US Treasuries holdings and repatriate capital to support the yen and the local bond market, Dalio said. Rising Japanese yields would encourage that shift, he added.

The Treasury is also facing increasing competition for capital from corporations, which are selling more debt and equity to finance the artificial-intelligence buildout. Dalio pointed to signs that investors are beginning to demand larger “concessions to absorb the supply,” calling the corporate credit market the “canary in the coal mine.”

“Adding all this up, the expected changes in supply of new debt and the demand for it have for a long time made it — and still make it — easier to be short than long US Treasuries,” Dalio wrote.