彭博前瞻：香港首份五年规划料重点推进离岸人民币应用与大宗商品期货，周三施政报告才揭晓

Measures to promote wider offshore use of the yuan are likely to feature prominently in Hong Kong’s inaugural five-year plan, along with new financial products including commodities futures, according to analysts.

Such expectations have gained traction after Chief Executive John Lee said earlier this month that the city intends to expand offshore yuan investment and risk management products, as well as broaden market access to the stock, bond and wealth management links to mainland China. Lee will unveilthe economic development blueprint on Wednesday.

Hong Kong’s 2026-2030 masterplan, which is intended to align with China’s own five-year plan, comes as the Asian financial hub recovers from a post-pandemic economic slump and seeks new initiatives to transform its growth model. Cementing its status as the offshore yuan financing hub is essential to Beijing’s long-term vision of a powerful currency that is more compatible with its economic clout.

“Liquidity is not an issue anymore,” said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “We’ve got a lot of deposits in the banking sector and there’s got to be some development in terms of different types of products so that they can use the currency and allocate to some yield-generating assets denominated in yuan.”

Offshore yuan deposits in Hong Kong rose to a record 1.13 trillion yuan ($168 billion) at the end of May, before retreating slightly in the following two months, according to latest Hong Kong Monetary Authority data. The surge in cash supply has also been driving an unprecedented initial public offering boom in the city.

One area of breakthrough may be offshore yuan-denominated debt known as dim sum bonds, where “the next step that they really need to try to do” is to encourage issuance by more foreign governments and companies, Yeung said. “Yuan can also be an alternative to the US dollar and Hong Kong can play a role or explore whether this is feasible.”

Dim sum bond sales have reached 863 billion yuan so far this year, the most ever for the period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The issuance bonanza has partly benefited from offshore yuan interest rates that are hovering around record lows.

Further expanding that bond market will be part of Hong Kong’s focus as it is important for the development of an offshore yuan yield curve, said Kelvin Lam, senior China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Without a benchmark, you won’t be able to see how yuan will be priced and normally it will be of much higher costs,” he said.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong is poised to develop a local commodity trading ecosystem, with the launch of more offshore yuan-denominated products to support the yuan’s global use, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michelle Leung wrote in a note.

“Beyond the planned gold futures, offshore yuan-settled futures are expected to expand to silver and base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange,” Leung wrote.

Hong Kong began in July the trial operation of a new gold clearing system, backed by several major banks, in a key step toward its ambition to become a significant bullion-trading hub with price-setting power.

“Through building links between the LME and Qianhai Mercantile Exchange — both owned by HKEX — Hong Kong could help build a strategic bridge between global benchmark pricing and onshore commodity markets,” Leung added.