艾伯塔约75%选民支持留在加拿大，卡尼政治风险解除但市场已基本计入

Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed the results of the Alberta referendum as a “great day for Canada,” declaring that the province has now chosen unity over the prospect of separation.

The decisive result — which saw the “remain” side win roughly 75% of support — allows Carney to put a pressing domestic issue to rest and refocus on the international stage, where major events loom in the coming weeks.

On Oct. 29, the prime minister will host leaders from the European Union in Montreal. The two sides are expected to unveil the next steps toward a potential “associate membership” for Canada within the EU, including closer cooperation in strategic areas such as defense, artificial intelligence, advanced research and education.

The US midterm elections take place the following week. In Canada, that event is viewed by some observers as a possible turning point in the stalled trade talks. US officials such as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have saidthey viewed the Alberta vote as an obstacle to a deal, arguing that Carney has played hardball in negotiations to court Canadian nationalists.

President Donald Trump has threatened to hike tariffs on Canada’s auto sector to 50% on Jan. 1, which sets up another deadline if negotiations do resume after the midterms.

Then, in mid-November, Carney is expected to attend several events in Asia, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders summit in the city of Shenzhen. That would be Carney’s second trip to China this year, and a chance to expand on trade talks with President Xi Jinping following their meeting in January.

All of this is made easier with the Alberta referendum in Carney’s rearview mirror. Although the separatist side was never favored in public polling, the prime minister took the vote very seriously. He frequently raised his experience as Bank of England governor during Brexit, where the “leave” side won in a referendum that continues to affect the British economy today.

He warned Alberta voters not to assume they could cast a symbolic vote just to strengthen their region’s hand. “That is a very dangerous bluff,” he said in May. “I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was: Vote for this, it’ll be soft, and then we’ll negotiate, et cetera. They’re still, 10 years later, trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having.”

Some parts of Carney’s governing agenda were clearly timed around the referendum, particularly his plans to build a new pipeline connecting Alberta’s oil-producing region with a proposed export terminal on the Pacific coast. On Oct. 1, Carney invoked new powers to fast-track regulatory approval of the pipeline, a demonstration to Albertans that his government was serious about ensuring the project is built.

More broadly, Carney has steadily rolled back environment policies enacted by his predecessor Justin Trudeau, including a federal carbon tax on consumer fuels and other regulations that Alberta’s government has frequently derided as knee-capping its oil and gas sector.

After Monday’s vote, members of Carney’s cabinet made sure to note the sizeable margin of victory.

“What we saw last night was a very decisive decision from Albertans for the unity of Canada,” said Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for relations with Canadian provincial leaders. LeBlanc also leads on other key files for Carney, including US trade talks.

In his own comments, Carney acknowledged there are still other issues to work on with Alberta, particularly around immigration. The province-wide referendum included 10 questions, including whether Alberta should have more control over immigration levels and whether it should restrict some newcomers from accessing public services such as healthcare. The “yes” side was leading on most of those questions as of midday Tuesday.

But the prime minister was unmistakably relieved to have the most important question settled.

“It’s a great result for Canada,” he said, declaring himself “thrilled that Albertans have chosen unity, they’ve chosen to build together.” He said the two sides will now “move forward together with purpose, high ambition.”