Bloomberg复盘：SpaceX购频谱入局卫星直连手机，Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile上周五已双位数下跌

Telecom stocks have long been considered a relatively safe bet for investors, offering predictable growth, limited downside and healthy dividends. But a combination of competition from SpaceX and rising Treasury yields is threatening to upend that equation.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. announced last week that it’s buying a swath of spectrum that will enable it to beam cellular service from its Starlink satellites, potentially setting up Elon Musk’s aerospace technology company to become a major mobile carrier as well. Verizon Communications Inc., AT&T Inc., and T-Mobile US Inc. all suffered double-digit percentage declines on Friday after the news hit.

“Competitive risk is presenting itself in a way it hasn’t in the past,” said John Conca, a telecom analyst at Third Bridge Group. “The market perception is that this is just the first shoe dropping.”

The telecommunications players were already under pressure from soaring interest rates. The yield on 10-year Treasuries crossed 5% on Sept. 15, and since then shares of Verizon and AT&T are down 14% while T-Mobile’s have lost 13%. The companies are sensitive to bond yields because part of their appeal is based on their reliable dividend payouts.

“Some people buy them for their (dividend) yields on the idea that it comes with a growth kicker,” said Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds. “But they’re not growing very much, and there are risks to that growth down the road with this SpaceX question. At the same time, the yields don’t look nearly as attractive as they might otherwise, because you can get a similar yield from risk-free Treasuries.”

T-Mobile shares are down 22% this year, while AT&T has lost 7.2%. Verizon is up 9.1% but still trails the S&P 500 Index’s 13% gain. SpaceX went public in June and the stock has jumped 13% from its IPO price, though it’s 25% below the peak it hit within days of the IPO.

Of course, the threat from SpaceX is pretty far down the road considering it will need a lot of costly terrestrial infrastructure to effectively compete, especially in densely-populated markets, according to Conca. However, this is compounding pre-existing concerns about the pace of growth in the industry.

“This is more about sentiment than fundamentals in the near term,” he said. “But if there’s even a small chance they could lose significant market share in the future, that’s really going to scare people.”

Those fears aren’t confined to the US. In Europe, Deutsche Telekom, which has a majority stake in T-Mobile, is down 8.6% this year through Wednesday’s close. And a gauge of European telecom stocks has fallen 18% from a peak in May.

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To stay ahead of the competition, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon unveiled a joint venture focused on expanding satellite-enabled connectivity to eliminate US mobile dead zones just days before SpaceX’s announcement. The move “should help neutralize Starlink Mobile’s ability to offer contiguous coverage in the US,” Bloomberg Intelligence wrote at the time.

Investors will get a look at the companies’ fundamentals over the next few weeks, with AT&T reporting earnings on Oct. 21, and Verizon and T-Mobile scheduled for the following week.

In response to the competitive environment, T-Mobile pointed to a LinkedIn post from its chief technology officer that downplayed the risk and noted that terrestrial networks were better suited for indoor coverage and density. Representatives from AT&T and Verizon didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Dividends At Risk

Should SpaceX enter the field, the companies’ dividends will become a question, Permanent Portfolio’s Cuggino said. Verizon’s shares have one of the 10 highest yields in the S&P 500 Index at 6.4%, while AT&T’s is 4.8% and T-Mobile’s is 3%.

“SpaceX would be a formidable competitor, and could potentially impact telecom business models and force them to spend more to maintain their market share,” Cuggino said. “That would mean less money that’s available for buybacks or dividends, or just earnings overall. That would impact multiples and how Wall Street values them.”

What makes these issues particularly thorny is growth appears to be slowing. T-Mobile’s revenues rose 8.5% in 2025, but Wall Street analysts project that figure will be 6.8% this year and continue slowing, eventually hitting 2.2% in 2029. Verizon’s 2.5% revenue increase in 2025 looks like a near-term top, as the pace isn’t expected to exceed 2% for the next three years. And AT&T’s annual revenue is seen rising less than 3% through 2029.

“It is very hard to imagine beating the market by investing in a saturated industry that has already reached its growth potential, especially when there’s the risk they could lose market share to a newcomer like SpaceX,” said Paul Gray, chief executive officer of the value-based hedge fund Ironhold Capital.

One area where the stocks could appeal to investors is price since they’re relatively cheap at the moment. Verizon trades at 8.5 times earnings estimated over the next 12 months, less than its 10-year average of 10.2. T-Mobile’s multiple is roughly 12 and near its lowest since 2012. AT&T’s valuation, at 9.1 times forward earnings, is a modest premium to its 10-year average but below its 2025 peak of 13.6, which was its highest since 2005.

Meanwhile, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times future earnings and is one of the priciest stocks in the market, along with Musk’s other company, Tesla Inc.

“Investing in something with a 100 multiple is far too speculative,” Gray said. “There’s just not enough growth potential in telecom for us to get involved.”

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Earnings Due

No major earnings expected

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