黑海粮食运输受袭持续推高小麦价格，但本次彭博稿更像已扩散题材综述

Almost two months of nonstop attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other’s commercial ships and ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have cut into grain exports from both countries. That’s sent wheat futures to the highest level in three years and threatened global food supplies.

Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of the world’s wheat exports and also produce large amounts of barley, corn and sunflower oil. The recent disruption is reminiscent of 2022, when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine effectively suspended loadings at Ukrainian ports, pushing grain prices to records.

Though the current turmoil has yet to have the same impact on prices, it comes at a difficult moment for the food industry. The throttling of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has imperiled flows of fertilizer and other key inputs used by farmers. Heat waves are shriveling crops in Europe. And an El Niño weather pattern threatens further damage to farm yields.

What’s been going on in the Black Sea?

Russia has targeted Ukraine’s grain export infrastructure with airstrikes, hitting facilities operated by some of the world’s biggestcrop trading firms, including Bunge Global SA and Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., for many months. In July, it stepped upthe campaign, hitting cargo ships and Ukraine’s main grain shipping terminals of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi.

Since the escalation, Russia has been targeting Ukrainian Black Sea ports almost every day. It’s also struck Ukraine’s ports on the Danube River, which became an important alternative grain export hub following the disruption to Black Sea routes. Danube shipments had already encountered problems due to low water levels from the summer heat.

As a result, Ukraine’s grain exports have slumped, falling in August to what Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said was a fifth of their potential volume. His ministry warned that the country’s agricultural shipments this season could be less than half the amount previously estimated.

The situation is no better in Russia. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian ports and vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov have nearly idled a route that normally handles more than 70% of Russian grain exports.

Ukraine struck two key Russian ports along the Sea of Azov in July, leading to limited transits through the Don Azov Channel, which links the sea to the Don River, a major Russian waterway. In August, several grain terminals at the country’s key Novorossiysk export hub halted operations after being damaged in a massive drone attack. Repairs are expected to take months.

Russia can use its Baltic ports for exports, but the limited capacity there can’t accommodate the roughly 60 million metric tons of grain the country is capable of exporting in a season.

Russia exported less than half the wheat in August than it exported in the same month last year. Research firm SovEcon predicted that September exports would fall to the lowest level for that month since 2010.

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How important is the Black Sea region to global food supplies?

There’s a reason Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered the sharpest surge in global food prices on record. The Black Sea is one of the world’s most important agricultural export corridors, handling a significant share of the wheat, corn and sunflower-oil trade. Ukraine’s ports are critical gateways for exports to countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia that can’t easily afford more expensive grains from other regions.

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and supplies about one in every six tons traded globally, making uninterrupted access to the Black Sea corridor critical for global food markets.

“Black Sea wheat is usually the cheapest global source,” said Matt Darragh, grains and oilseeds analyst at Kpler. “Price-sensitive buyers will either reduce import demand or face a higher price. Either way, this would drive global food inflation higher.”

How was Ukraine managing to export its grain until now?

After Russia pulled out of an agreement to allow for Black Sea grain exports in 2023, Ukraine established a new maritime corridor for shipping grain and other commodities from its Black Sea ports. To avoid Russian attacks, vessels hug the coastline of Ukraine, then sail through the territorial waters of European Union members Romania and Bulgaria before heading through the Bosporus Strait and into the Mediterranean.

“The market had, up to now, been relying on uninterrupted grain shipments, despite the Ukraine war. What we are now seeing is, in essence, a reopening of the original wound caused by Russia’s invasion,” said Mike Verdin, senior markets consultant at CRM AgriCommodities.

Are talks possible?

Ukraine offered Russia a truce on attacks against ships carrying agricultural commodities through the Black Sea, but Moscow rejected the deal because it wanted guarantees against strikes on its energy infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in late August.

Ukrainian drone attacks have struck, among other things, oil refineries deep within Russian territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged economic damage from Ukrainian strikes and said he’d rejected ceasefire proposals from Kyiv as “unacceptable” and, in some cases, “exotic,” without elaborating.

Turkey is in contact with Russia and Ukraine in an effort to revive a United Nations-brokered wartime grain deal, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Aug. 31. It’s not yet clear whether the effort will succeed.

In the meantime, Russia ispreparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end, according to three people close to the Kremlin.

What do the Black Sea attacks mean for global food prices?

Internationally traded food commodity prices are hovering near their highest levels since 2023 but remain well below their peaks reached in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. Grain stockpiles are still ample after bumper crops in previous years. Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia are useful alternative suppliers of wheat from the Black Sea region.

Still, the disruption adds to the pressures building in the global market. Farmers in some countries face shortages and higher prices for fertilizer and fuel due to the repeated shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz trade choke point.

Erratic weather is adding another layer of uncertainty. Successive heat waves have battered crops across parts of Europe, leaving farmers facing smaller harvests. Damage to corn is likely to leave the region more reliant on imports of the crop, which is used as animal feed. In the US, lingering spells of drought across the Great Plains and Corn Belt, the nation’s major growing regions, have pushed up prices of key staples. The return of El Niño is expected to unleash further disruption to agriculture.

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What do the disruptions mean for Ukraine and Russia?

Grains are a major source of foreign currency for Ukraine, and the disruption in the Black Sea means weaker farm incomes, adding pressure to the wartime economy.

Given the challenges of exporting their crop, Russian farmers may cut winter sowing, which would affect future global supply.