Aviva Investors 增持英国10年期国债，认为收益率升至多年高位已充分定价财政风险并将约束政府10月预算扩张空间

Aviva Investors is increasing its exposure to UK gilts, betting that the recent surge in bond yields will constrain the government’s ability to expand spending.

The £253 billion ($342 billion) investment firm bought 10-year gilts over the past week, adding to its overweight position in UK bonds, senior portfolio manager Steve Ryder told Bloomberg News. With yields near multi-decade highs, Britain’s fiscal risks appear “well priced,” he said.

Ten-year yields traded Friday at 5.15%, just below Tuesday’s 19-year high, while 30-year rates climbed midweek to the highest since 1998 after a renewed oil price spike sparked a global bond selloff. The moves raise the stakes for Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s Oct. 28 budget, leaving less room to increase spending without breaching the government’s fiscal rules.

“Each additional move higher in yield puts additional pressure on UK finances ahead of the budget,” Ryder said in an interview. “It constrains what the government can do.”

“There’s going to need to be some adjustments, but beyond that our base case is that it’s a reasonably balanced budget,” he said, adding UK bonds comprise the core long position across most of Aviva Investors’ bond portfolios.

The recent jump in yields will knock about £12 billion off the government’s buffer against its fiscal rules, according to Bloomberg Economics. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pledged to respect the rules, which require all day-today spending to be covered by tax in 2029. But that could leave Healey scrabbling to find money to boost defense spending in his budget.

Still, asset-swap spreads — a key gauge of angst over bond supply — have remained broadly steady, suggesting the selloff has been driven more by inflation and monetary-policy expectations than by worries over Britain’s fiscal outlook.

Read more: A Popular UK Bond Trade Suggests Markets Trust Burnham for Now

Alongside the risk premium now embedded in bond prices, Ryder sees signs that gilts’ sensitivity to energy prices is starting to plateau, while potential regulatory change that could give banks more capacity to buy gilts should provide additional support.

“Probably all of those factors outweigh any concerns that the market might have going into the budget,” he said.

The other question for gilt investors is whether above-target annual inflation will force the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Swaps imply almost three quarter-point rate increases over the coming year.

Ryder said Aviva Investors’ base case remains that the BOE will eventually ease policy. To guard against a possible hike, however, he has shifted front-end positioning to the two-year forward one-year rate. The forward — essentially the implied one-year rate starting two years from now — leaves the position less exposed to near-term policy moves.