美伊冲突升级推高油气价格并加剧欧洲冬季能源与通胀压力

A new wave of fighting in Iran has sent oil and gas prices spiraling this week, spurring concerns about inflation as politicians across Europe start to sound the alarm.

European natural gas futures hit a three-year high and oil futures are moving closer to $100 a barrel as renewed fighting threatens to once again throttle energy supplies from the Persian Gulf. At the pump in Europe, diesel and gasoline now cost far in excess of $350 a barrel — and more than $150 in the US.

After a period of relative calm, US forces stepped up attacks on Iran’s infrastructure over the past few days, prompting Tehran to lash out at shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s key maritime corridor for energy. Europe is already dealing with low natural gas stockpiles heading into winter while worldwide restrictions oil refining capacity are curbing the supply of fuels.

The renewed hostilities and their impact on energy prices have raised the alarm among politicians across Europe. In his back-to-school speech on foreign policy on Tuesday, French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot took the time to highlight high prices as a key risk weighing on the nation’s finances, as the government heads into tough negotiations over its 2027 budget.

“Last year, oil prices stood at $70, this year it is $90,” he said. “This means: Less growth, less tax revenue, and less room for maneuver.”

Brent futures rose to about $95 a barrel on Wednesday morning in London, an increase of 6.6% this week. European diesel futures, down slightly on Wednesday, rallied by about 5% in each of the three prior trading sessions, according to ICE Futures Europe data. Natural gas, the fuel that powers European industry and heats homes, is up 11% this week.

The US military carried out its second round of attacks in three days on Iran, targeting radar systems and mine-laying capabilities along Iran’s southern coast — and reportedly widening its campaign to encompass Iranian oil tankers. President Donald Trump has warned that further operations could follow.

The Islamic Republic retaliated with drone and missile volleys on US bases across the Middle East, claiming attacks in Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates.

The six-month face-off between Washington and Tehran has severely constricted energy exports through Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied gas flowed during peace time. While workaround pipelines and covert flows from Middle East producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates averted a full-blown oil crisis, a renewed flareup threatens a deeper economic hit.

Energy supplies are simultaneously being strained by another conflict, as an unprecedented wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s refineries constricts the flow of fuels such as diesel.

The disruptions threaten Europe’s efforts to rebuild gas inventories ahead of winter, which are currently just 65% full, the lowest seasonal level in data going back to 2009.

While many observers focus on headline crude prices, a global crunch in the supply of finished fuels like gasoline and diesel are a critical problem.

As well as Ukraine’s attacks on Russian fuelmakers, the war itself means fewer refined fuel cargoes are leaving the Persian Gulf. At the same time, some plants haven’t been able to make fuel because of the conflict.

“Oil prices I think are increasingly not the thing to focus on; it’s petrol and diesel prices that are the thing to look at, and diesel is pricing as if oil’s $140,” said Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK. “We all just use oil prices as basically a proxy for all of that oil-related inflation, because normally that’s fine. But at the minute, I think that probably underestimates some of the impact.”

Bond Yields

The surge is stoking a run-up in global bond yields, which have ballooned to the highest since the 2008 financial crisis amid heavy government spending in major markets like Japan, the UK and the US.

It’s also forcing many of the world’s most important central banks to continue to contemplate hiking interest rates.

“High energy prices have started to become more relevant for the inflation outlook,” said Florence Schmit, a senior energy strategist at Rabobank.

Persistent inflation worries are already supporting traders’ bets on at least three more quarter-point hikes from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by mid-2027. For this year, money markets price about 50 basis points of hikes by the ECB and 23 basis points in the UK.

The bond selloff has been a particularly acute lesson for UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham on the harsh reality of Britain’s weak public finances as he returns to parliament, knocking £12 billion ($16.2 billion) off the government’s fiscal buffer. Gilt yields surged to the highest levels in decades this week.

Heavy government spending in major markets like Japan, the UK and the US is keeping debt issuance elevated, prompting investors to seek more compensation to own longer-maturity debt. At the same time, the vast amount of funds needed to finance the AI boom is intensifying the competition for capital and helping push borrowing costs higher.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries — a global benchmark for borrowing costs — advanced to 4.81% on Wednesday, the highest level since late 2023, heaping more pressure on debt in other developed markets. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield on Tuesday touched 3% for the first time this century.

“The energy price shock acts like an additional tax on the economy and consumer,” said Claudia Kemfert, head of the Department of Energy, Transport and Environment at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin. “It fuels inflation, weakens purchasing power and growth, and increases economic uncertainty.”