Bloomberg：安盛预计明年可能失去与意大利西雅那银行的长期银保分销合作，但公司此前已披露该业务损失对欧洲盈利影响不足2%

Axa SA expects to lose its distribution partnership with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA next year, potentially putting the insurer on the losing side of the deals wave washing across Italian finance.

Axa’s management recently discussed the topic internally as well as with advisers following the latest developments in Italy, which have increased the chances that Monte Paschi will be taken over by rival Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, according to people familiar with the matter.

The overall view was that this has further raised the likelihood the French insurer’s contract with the Italian bank will get terminated when it’s up for renewal in about a year, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.

Representatives for Axa and Monte Paschi declined to comment.

The potential loss of the lucrative and long-lasting partnership highlights how the shifting ownership structures and allegiances across Italy’s finance sector are reverberating beyond the country’s borders. A local distribution partnership between Amundi, the asset management arm of French bank Credit Agricole SA, and UniCredit SpA is also at risk, partly due to diverging interests over how the Italian deals wave should play out, Bloomberg has reported.

Read More: Paschi Chief’s Intesa Defense in Doubt After Two Investors Balk

The effort by Monte Paschi CEO Luigi Lovaglio to prevent the takeover by Intesa was recently dealt a blow when several key investors said they’re opposed to his counter-move to buy two other banks, Banco BPM SpA and Banca Generali SpA. The statements mean Lovaglio’s chances are low to get the approval from shareholders at a meeting later this month to pursue the deals.

Axa Chief Executive Officer Thomas Buberl has described the Monte Paschi agreement as being of “great importance” to his firm.

The insurer will discuss the contract “in the coming months” and it’s prepared for “all options,” European Markets & Health head Patrick Cohen said during an analyst call in September. Two fairly recent acquisitions in the country — Gruppo Nobis and Prima Assicurazioni — have reduced Axa’s dependence on the partnership, Cohen added, saying the firm would lose less than 2% of earnings in Europe on the Life & Health business if it ended.

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If Intesa succeeds in buying Monte Paschi, it plans to sell a considerable chunk of the firm to another insurer, Unipol Gruppo SpA. That structure makes it likely that Unipol would vie for the lucrative distribution deals.

Axa’s Monte Paschi contract could be at risk even if the bank stays independent. Lovaglio has said he sees the Banca Generali deal as the first step toward a broader industrial partnership with the parent, Assicurazioni Generali SpA. The insurer’s CEO, Philippe Donnet, has made similar comments.

Monte Paschi holds a large stake in Generali, thanks to its acquisition of competitor Mediobanca last year.

Read More: Generali Open to Commercial Partnerships With UniCredit, Paschi

The partnership between Axa and Monte Paschi was first signed in 2007 and subsequently renewed in 2017. It involves a bancassurance deal and a joint venture covering life, non-life, and pension products that runs through 2027.

If the contract doesn’t get renewed next year, Axa would be set to receive a financial compensation that would come in part from its stakes in the joint ventures with Monte Paschi, the people said.