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北京时间·🕒 发布 07-30 16:33:57时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-30 16:46:05·⚡ 决策 07-31 00:19:31 +7h33m·88.7 天前
土耳其称伊拉克经基尔库克-杰伊汉管道的原油流量将在谈判期间继续
这是一条区域原油运输与供应连续性的宏观/行业消息，未形成对单一上市公司的直接、短周期、可量化收入或利润传导。
📄 原文Bloomberg↗ 原文
Turkey expects crude oil flows from Iraq to continue despite the countries’ failure to replace a decades-old pipeline d…
不做 BP Plc（BP.US）
宏观/行业管道流量消息，未披露BP新增金额或利润影响，超大市值主标的无可交易edge。
不做 ConocoPhillips（COP.US）
事件未形成对ConocoPhillips的直接重大收入或利润增量，不能把区域油流背景强行映射成交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-30 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这是一条区域原油运输与供应连续性的宏观/行业消息，未形成对单一上市公司的直接、短周期、可量化收入或利润传导。
- 文中提到BP和ConocoPhillips参与基尔库克油气田重开发，但TPAO入股条款未披露，且对BP Plc（BP.US）和ConocoPhillips（COP.US）市值级影响显然不足。
主要风险
- 若后续披露管道长期协议、增量输油量或BP/COP项目经济权益的具体重大金额，需作为新催化重新评估。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,468 字
Turkey expects crude oil flows from Iraq to continue despite the countries’ failure to replace a decades-old pipeline deal that expired on Monday, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter.
Negotiations on Tuesday between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih Kadhim Al-Zaidiabout the 986-kilometer (613-mile) Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline were inconclusive but both sides will allow crude to flow while talks continue, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
They added that any eventual agreement would be backdated to July 27, the expiry date of the previous deal, which had been in place for 53 years.
The move ensures near-term oil supply through one of the Middle East’s only crude export routes that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, which has been almost entirely closed to traffic during the Iran war, disrupting exports and rattling markets.
Turkey’s Energy Ministry, Iraq’s Oil Ministry and an Iraqi government spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.
“Our aim now is to sign a comprehensive energy cooperation agreement as soon as possible that will benefit both sides,” Erdogan said at a press conference with the Iraqi leader on Tuesday.
The pipeline’s technical capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day, but it’s long been underutilized. Exports were running at about 180,000 barrels per day in June, the director general of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization said at the time.
Turkey wants a new pipeline agreement that locks in increased flows and the extension of the pipeline further south to Iraq’s oil hub of Basra.
Ankara is also investing in upstream production in Kirkuk. State oil company TPAO agreed on Tuesday to take a 15% stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, a consortium with oil majors BP Plc and ConocoPhillipsthat’s redeveloping oil and gas fields in the region. Financial terms for the deal weren’t disclosed.
Flows on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline were previously disrupted by a long-running legal dispute between Iraq and Turkey.
In 2023, the International Court of Arbitration ordered Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5 billion for shipping Iraqi Kurdish oil without the approval of the central government in Baghdad. Turkey rejected the ruling and sought to negotiate a broader deal with Baghdad.
Oil resumed flowing last September after a two-and-a-half-year pause, before a brief interruption in March due to the war.
Negotiations on Tuesday between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih Kadhim Al-Zaidiabout the 986-kilometer (613-mile) Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline were inconclusive but both sides will allow crude to flow while talks continue, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
They added that any eventual agreement would be backdated to July 27, the expiry date of the previous deal, which had been in place for 53 years.
The move ensures near-term oil supply through one of the Middle East’s only crude export routes that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, which has been almost entirely closed to traffic during the Iran war, disrupting exports and rattling markets.
Turkey’s Energy Ministry, Iraq’s Oil Ministry and an Iraqi government spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.
“Our aim now is to sign a comprehensive energy cooperation agreement as soon as possible that will benefit both sides,” Erdogan said at a press conference with the Iraqi leader on Tuesday.
The pipeline’s technical capacity is 1.5 million barrels per day, but it’s long been underutilized. Exports were running at about 180,000 barrels per day in June, the director general of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization said at the time.
Turkey wants a new pipeline agreement that locks in increased flows and the extension of the pipeline further south to Iraq’s oil hub of Basra.
Ankara is also investing in upstream production in Kirkuk. State oil company TPAO agreed on Tuesday to take a 15% stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, a consortium with oil majors BP Plc and ConocoPhillipsthat’s redeveloping oil and gas fields in the region. Financial terms for the deal weren’t disclosed.
Flows on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline were previously disrupted by a long-running legal dispute between Iraq and Turkey.
In 2023, the International Court of Arbitration ordered Turkey to pay Iraq $1.5 billion for shipping Iraqi Kurdish oil without the approval of the central government in Baghdad. Turkey rejected the ruling and sought to negotiate a broader deal with Baghdad.
Oil resumed flowing last September after a two-and-a-half-year pause, before a brief interruption in March due to the war.
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