MSCI非运营公司规则咨询再度压制Strategy比特币财库模式

A rebound in Bitcoin has brought some relief for Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. But just as market pressure begins to ease, an old threat from index provider MSCI is resurfacing.

MSCI is considering rules that could remove the company from its global equity indexes, potentially adding new strain to the financing model behind Strategy’s vast Bitcoin holdings. The consultation comes as Saylor seeks more capital to continue buying Bitcoin, adding to concerns over shareholder dilution and the performance of securities issued to finance more than $60 billion in purchases.

The proposal would exclude companies that MSCI determines are primarily engaged in accumulating assets rather than operating businesses. Applying the methodology as of May would have resulted in the removal of Strategy and Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet Inc. and Yellow Cake Plc, which invests in uranium, according to MSCI.

The proposal revives a threat that appeared to have receded earlier this year, when MSCI abandoned a plan that would have targeted companies with large digital-asset holdings. Instead, the index provider said it would undertake a broader review of companies whose activities were more investment-oriented than operational.

That distinction is now at the center of the latest consultation. Rather than creating a rule specifically aimed at Bitcoin or other digital assets, the proposal released earlier this month seeks to determine whether a company has sufficient operating activity to qualify for inclusion in an equity benchmark.

“MSCI has broadened the discussion to a more fundamental question: what should qualify as an operating company for inclusion in an equity benchmark,” said Edward Yoon, index strategist at Macquarie Capital.

Strategy’s shares have jumped more than 35% in the past week as Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000, offering some relief after a prolonged slide in both the cryptocurrency and the company’s stock. The shares are still down roughly 60% over the past year.

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The prospect of exclusion from a major index could add another layer of pressure to Strategy’s capital structure. Removal can weigh on a stock as the pool of investors required to own it shrinks, potentially reducing demand.

Expulsion from major benchmarks can create a short-term technical overhang on shares, potentially causing market technicals to trump fundamentals, according to Melissa Roberts, managing director of index rebalancing and strategic opportunities research at Stephens Inc. Furthermore, “one of the biggest consequences of index removal is that a stock loses investor visibility,” she added. “In general, removal from an index typically results in increased share turnover and price underperformance as the shareholder base changes.”

Read more: Bitcoin’s Rally Leans on Fears That Fiscal Strains Are Mounting

In the August consultation, MSCI proposes a quantitative screening process based on five financial metrics: operating asset intensity, expense intensity, cash flow screen, fair value intensity and capital dependence. A company would be considered ineligible if it fails MSCI’s core operating-assets screen and four of five additional financial tests.

The methodology is designed to capture companies whose economic activity more closely resembles that of an investment vehicle than an operating business, Yoon said. Investment vehicles such as exchange-traded funds, investment funds and business development companies are already excluded from MSCI’s investable indexes.

“The consultation therefore does not introduce an entirely new concept,” Yoon added. “Instead, it extends an existing principle to companies that may have similar economic characteristics despite being structured as traditional corporations.”

At issue is how index providers distinguish an operating company from an investment vehicle as businesses such as Strategy increasingly build themselves around accumulating assets.

“Our conclusion: this debate may ultimately be more important as a precedent for Bitcoin treasury companies and other asset-centric public-company structures than as a near-term flow event for MSTR itself,” said Lance Vitanza of TD Securities. “We believe investors may be underestimating the broader significance of the consultation.”

Strategy, led by co-founder Saylor, did not respond to a request for comment. But in a social media post, it said: “Index providers should measure markets, not decide which assets companies are allowed to own. MSCI’s proposal puts it out of step with regulators, markets, and its own customers.”

The current proposal also appears designed to limit disruption for existing constituents. Yoon noted that MSCI is considering watchlists, buffer thresholds and a requirement for companies to fail the screens based on two consecutive review periods before removal.

“This measured approach gives both issuers and investors time to assess the potential impact of the changes while helping to avoid unnecessary disruption to benchmark tracking portfolios,” he said.

MSCI is seeking feedback from market participants through the end of September and plans to announce the consultation results in October.

Read more: Bitcoin Tops $80,000 as Bullish Mood Returns to Crypto Market