韩元升值削弱韩华海洋三季度汇兑红利，三星重工全额套保盈利动能反超预期

Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Heavy Swap Places as Currency Bets Diverge - Seoul Economic Daily
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A view of Hanwha Ocean's Geoje shipyard. /Hanwha Ocean
Hanwha Ocean (042660) and Samsung Heavy Industries (010140) are set to trade places in earnings momentum after just three months. A recent decline in the won-dollar exchange rate is expected to cut third-quarter operating profit at Hanwha Ocean, which benefited from a weak won in the second quarter, while Samsung Heavy Industries, which stuck to full currency hedging, is projected to extend its gains.
Hanwha Ocean's third-quarter operating profit is expected to reach 569.5 billion won, according to consensus estimates compiled by financial data provider FnGuide on the 9th. That is down 22.6% from 736.1 billion won in the second quarter. Samsung Heavy Industries, by contrast, is estimated at 347.5 billion won, up 6.9% from the previous quarter and 46% higher than a year earlier. The gap in operating profit between the two shipbuilders, which had widened to 411.1 billion won, is forecast to narrow to 222 billion won.
The exchange rate separated the two. Shipbuilders are heavily exposed to currency moves because they are paid for vessels in dollars and receive the money in installments over construction periods of two to three years. The won averaged 1,501.6 per dollar in the second quarter, the weakest level since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis that brought in an International Monetary Fund bailout. In the third quarter, the average was 1,418.6, a 5.5% appreciation from the previous quarter. In early September, the currency briefly traded in the mid-1,300s.
Hanwha Ocean had pursued an open strategy, keeping its hedge ratio low. Its first-quarter hedge ratio was around 9%, according to industry sources. That approach paid off in the second quarter, when the won was weak, delivering operating profit more than double Samsung Heavy Industries' 325 billion won. But it became a risk in the third quarter as the won firmed. Korea Investment & Securities had earlier estimated that every 10-won appreciation in the reference rate would reduce Hanwha Ocean's quarterly operating profit by 17.7 billion won.
Hanwha Ocean shifted course as the won began to strengthen. It increased forward sales to lift its hedge ratio to around 70%. The scale of the forward sales was about $5 billion, or roughly 6.69 trillion won. The company expects the effect of the expanded hedging to be partly reflected in third-quarter results. The wider hedge cushioned the blow from the stronger won, but it could not prevent the loss of the weak-won boost that had driven second-quarter earnings.
Samsung Heavy Industries, which hedges 100% of its order backlog, sidestepped the currency swing. When the company wins a shipbuilding order, it enters forward contracts with banks to lock the entire vessel payment at the exchange rate prevailing at the time of the deal. The structure forgoes foreign exchange gains when the won weakens sharply, but leaves earnings steady even when the currency strengthens. That is why the company narrowed the operating profit gap with Hanwha Ocean in the third quarter while sustaining growth. "If the exchange rate stays at the mid-1,300s level it has fallen to through the end of the year, the gap in profitability is expected to narrow," said Jang Sung-ho, an analyst at IBK Investment & Securities.
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Original reporting by
Jang Hyun-ki
for Seoul Economic Daily.
AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.
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