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白宫临时免除摩洛哥磷肥进口关税,增加美国磷肥供应并压低农户成本
白宫公告是确定性政策变化:未来最长8个月允许摩洛哥磷肥免缴相关反补贴税和估算保证金,方向上利空美国本土磷肥价格与保护性关税受益者。
📄 原文White House Presidential Actions↗ 原文
摩洛哥紧急状态声明及磷肥临时免税进口授权 美国授权从摩洛哥临时免税进口磷肥,增加美国市场供给,压制磷肥价格,对全球磷肥生产商偏空而利好下游农业。
Presidential Actions DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY AND AUTHORIZATION FOR TEMPORARY DUTY FREE IMPORTATION OF PHOSPHATE FERTIL…
不做 Mosaic(MOS.US)
方向上是MOS利空,但同一政策催化已在6月29-30日公开传播并触发首轮下跌,当前剩余预期差不足;按做空红线不以已反应的旧利空和动量追空。
不做 Nutrien(NTR.US)
NTR业务更分散且此前支持取消关税,政策对其不是清晰单向催化,无法形成正期望交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 白宫发布总统公告,宣布最长8个月临时允许摩洛哥磷肥免税进口,属于一手政策源。
- DTN在6月29日晚报道该公告,并指出暂停最高约16.8%的摩洛哥磷肥反补贴税,农业圈已开始传播。
- S&P Global报道该政策旨在提高美国磷肥可得性、改善竞争并降低农资成本,说明商品与产业媒体已扩散。
- 2026-06-30市场反应stock_quote非一手MOS.US在6月30日下跌5.57%,NTR.US上涨4.78%,说明主要肥料股已对同一政策催化出现首轮定价。市场反应:MOS 2026-06-30 -5.57%;NTR 2026-06-30 +4.78%。
关键理由
- 白宫公告是确定性政策变化:未来最长8个月允许摩洛哥磷肥免缴相关反补贴税和估算保证金,方向上利空美国本土磷肥价格与保护性关税受益者。
- Mosaic(MOS.US)是美国磷肥保护格局中最直接受影响的上市标的,但该公告已在6月29日晚发布并被农业媒体和财经信息扩散,MOS在6月30日已下跌约5.6%,当前再追空缺少剩余edge。
- Nutrien(NTR.US)虽有美国磷肥产能,但业务更分散且此前公开支持取消关税,事件对其方向不如MOS纯粹,不能形成高质量同向交易。
主要风险
- MOS的13周走势已明显走弱,政策利空可能继续压制,但同一催化已交易数日,继续做空更多依赖动量而不是新信息。
- 事件对农户和进口商更直接利好,但缺少纯粹、流动性好的上市受益标的,无法把低肥价传导可靠映射为短周期股票交易。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 kb_search · 影响 none
内部库未命中足以抵消关税暂停利空的新近强利好,但政策已发布数日且价格已有反应。
检索:Mosaic recent positive catalysts phosphate tight supply sulfur costs production guidance July 2026 - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-03-01 · 影响 weakens
Nutrien此前公开支持取消磷肥关税,说明该政策对NTR并非单纯利空,削弱做空映射。
检索:Nutrien in favor of removing phosphate tariffs 原文 ↗
工具调用 · 历史记录,结果未知(2 种)
- kb_search · 结果未知
- stock_quote · 结果未知
原文全文
展开原文 · 7,704 字
Presidential Actions
DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY AND AUTHORIZATION FOR TEMPORARY DUTY FREE IMPORTATION OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER FROM MOROCCO
Proclamations
June 29, 2026
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
1. Fertilizers are an essential component of agriculture and food production. Producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, and a variety of other crops need phosphate fertilizers to ensure strong crop yields to feed the population. Food production is critical to human health, farm security, and to the function of major sectors of the economy, and even isolated interruptions in food production can have serious health and economic consequences. Robust and reliable food production is therefore critical to the economic and national security of the United States.
2. During the planting and growing season, soil and crops require critical nutrients, including the phosphorus supplied by phosphate fertilizers, and in the coming months, farmers will apply more than half of annually consumed phosphate fertilizers between the fall and very early spring prior to next spring’s planting. To ensure a stable food supply, predictable and timely sources of phosphate fertilizer must be procured to meet United States demand, which requires adequate supply of phosphate fertilizer, a critical type of plant food.
3. Global supply chains for phosphate fertilizer and fertilizer inputs, including imports of such products into the United States, have been disrupted in recent months by, among other things, conflicts in fertilizer-producing regions as well as trade actions taken by major fertilizer-producing countries. For example, the United States’ largest foreign source of phosphate fertilizer has experienced supply chain disruption, placing additional pressure on the farm economy and the production of certain categories of domestic food. Persistent threats to the global fertilizer supply chain, which create rapid price increases and procurement challenges, require the United States to procure phosphate fertilizer from diversified foreign sources to mitigate the significant risk of harm to the agricultural food production of the United States.
4. Currently, United States production of phosphate fertilizer is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports. The Federal Government is working with the private sector to expand domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity, but those efforts will take time to increase the supply materially. Immediate action is necessary and appropriate to ensure in the interim that United States farmers have access to a sufficient and timely supply of phosphate fertilizers during the planting and growing season, to ensure a stable domestic crop supply, and to meet our food production needs.
5. Producers in countries such as the Kingdom of Morocco can supply phosphate fertilizers to the United States without disruption at this time. It is imperative to immediately facilitate importation of phosphate fertilizers from the Kingdom of Morocco to mitigate the significant risk to the agricultural food production of the United States, to safeguard the economic and national security of the United States, and to ensure a stable domestic food supply.
6. Section 318(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (19 U.S.C. 1318(a)) (section 318), authorizes the President to declare an emergency for a reason described in section 318(a) and to authorize the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, to permit, during the continuance of such emergency, the importation free of duty of food, clothing, and medical, surgical, and other supplies for use in emergency relief work.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including section 318 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, do hereby declare an emergency to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient supplies of fertilizers to meet expected agricultural demand. Pursuant to this declaration, I hereby direct as follows:
(1) To provide additional authority to the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce to respond to the emergency declared in this proclamation, the authority under section 318 is invoked and made available, according to its terms, to the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall, when appropriate, consult with each other before exercising the authority under section 318.
(2) To provide relief from the emergency declared in this proclamation, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce, after consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, shall take appropriate action within their respective authorities under section 318 to permit until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency declared in this proclamation, under such regulations and under such conditions as the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce may use or prescribe, the importation, free of the collection of duties and deposits of estimated duties, if applicable, under sections 1671, 1675, and 1677j of title 19, United States Code, of phosphate fertilizers of the Kingdom of Morocco, and to temporarily extend during such 8-month period or the course of the emergency, as applicable, the time therein prescribed for the performance of any act related to such imports.
(3) Pursuant to section 318, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with any senior official they deem appropriate, shall monitor and review the status of circumstances related to the emergency declared in this proclamation. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall also inform the President of any circumstance that, in their opinion, might indicate the need for further action by the President, including under section 318.
(4) The Secretary of the Treasury or the Secretary of Commerce, when appropriate, shall report to the Congress any action taken under the provisions of section 318.
(5) Any provision of previous proclamations and Executive Orders that is inconsistent with this proclamation is superseded to the extent of such inconsistency. If any provision of this proclamation or the application of any provision to any individual or circumstance is held to be invalid, the remainder of this proclamation and the application of its provisions to any other individuals or circumstances shall not be affected.
(6)(a) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This proclamation shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of June, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-six, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and fiftieth.
DONALD J. TRUMP
DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY AND AUTHORIZATION FOR TEMPORARY DUTY FREE IMPORTATION OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER FROM MOROCCO
Proclamations
June 29, 2026
BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
1. Fertilizers are an essential component of agriculture and food production. Producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, and a variety of other crops need phosphate fertilizers to ensure strong crop yields to feed the population. Food production is critical to human health, farm security, and to the function of major sectors of the economy, and even isolated interruptions in food production can have serious health and economic consequences. Robust and reliable food production is therefore critical to the economic and national security of the United States.
2. During the planting and growing season, soil and crops require critical nutrients, including the phosphorus supplied by phosphate fertilizers, and in the coming months, farmers will apply more than half of annually consumed phosphate fertilizers between the fall and very early spring prior to next spring’s planting. To ensure a stable food supply, predictable and timely sources of phosphate fertilizer must be procured to meet United States demand, which requires adequate supply of phosphate fertilizer, a critical type of plant food.
3. Global supply chains for phosphate fertilizer and fertilizer inputs, including imports of such products into the United States, have been disrupted in recent months by, among other things, conflicts in fertilizer-producing regions as well as trade actions taken by major fertilizer-producing countries. For example, the United States’ largest foreign source of phosphate fertilizer has experienced supply chain disruption, placing additional pressure on the farm economy and the production of certain categories of domestic food. Persistent threats to the global fertilizer supply chain, which create rapid price increases and procurement challenges, require the United States to procure phosphate fertilizer from diversified foreign sources to mitigate the significant risk of harm to the agricultural food production of the United States.
4. Currently, United States production of phosphate fertilizer is insufficient to support domestic agricultural food production after accounting for exports. The Federal Government is working with the private sector to expand domestic fertilizer manufacturing capacity, but those efforts will take time to increase the supply materially. Immediate action is necessary and appropriate to ensure in the interim that United States farmers have access to a sufficient and timely supply of phosphate fertilizers during the planting and growing season, to ensure a stable domestic crop supply, and to meet our food production needs.
5. Producers in countries such as the Kingdom of Morocco can supply phosphate fertilizers to the United States without disruption at this time. It is imperative to immediately facilitate importation of phosphate fertilizers from the Kingdom of Morocco to mitigate the significant risk to the agricultural food production of the United States, to safeguard the economic and national security of the United States, and to ensure a stable domestic food supply.
6. Section 318(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended (19 U.S.C. 1318(a)) (section 318), authorizes the President to declare an emergency for a reason described in section 318(a) and to authorize the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce, as appropriate and consistent with applicable law, to permit, during the continuance of such emergency, the importation free of duty of food, clothing, and medical, surgical, and other supplies for use in emergency relief work.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including section 318 of the Tariff Act of 1930, as amended, and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, do hereby declare an emergency to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient supplies of fertilizers to meet expected agricultural demand. Pursuant to this declaration, I hereby direct as follows:
(1) To provide additional authority to the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce to respond to the emergency declared in this proclamation, the authority under section 318 is invoked and made available, according to its terms, to the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall, when appropriate, consult with each other before exercising the authority under section 318.
(2) To provide relief from the emergency declared in this proclamation, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce, after consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, shall take appropriate action within their respective authorities under section 318 to permit until the earlier of 8 months after the date of this proclamation or the termination of the emergency declared in this proclamation, under such regulations and under such conditions as the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce may use or prescribe, the importation, free of the collection of duties and deposits of estimated duties, if applicable, under sections 1671, 1675, and 1677j of title 19, United States Code, of phosphate fertilizers of the Kingdom of Morocco, and to temporarily extend during such 8-month period or the course of the emergency, as applicable, the time therein prescribed for the performance of any act related to such imports.
(3) Pursuant to section 318, the Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with any senior official they deem appropriate, shall monitor and review the status of circumstances related to the emergency declared in this proclamation. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Commerce shall also inform the President of any circumstance that, in their opinion, might indicate the need for further action by the President, including under section 318.
(4) The Secretary of the Treasury or the Secretary of Commerce, when appropriate, shall report to the Congress any action taken under the provisions of section 318.
(5) Any provision of previous proclamations and Executive Orders that is inconsistent with this proclamation is superseded to the extent of such inconsistency. If any provision of this proclamation or the application of any provision to any individual or circumstance is held to be invalid, the remainder of this proclamation and the application of its provisions to any other individuals or circumstances shall not be affected.
(6)(a) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This proclamation shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of June, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-six, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and fiftieth.
DONALD J. TRUMP
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