FT称美联储主席Warsh将在Jackson Hole讲话安抚市场，长债收益率与政策可信度压力升温

Kevin Warsh seeks to soothe investors’ nerves as signs of economic strain mount
US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh will seek to soothe investors’ nerves in the coming week as signs of economic strain mount and policymakers prepare to gather at their annual Jackson Hole symposium in what could be a crunch moment for one of President Donald Trump’s key economic appointees.
US public debt hit a record $40tn this week and yields on the country’s long-dated bonds hit a 19-year high. Reciprocal tariffs Trump announced on Canada this weekend are due to come into force within weeks and Washington is threatening Tehran with an ‘economic D-Day’, both of which could result in fresh economic blows.
Warsh and Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who was also appointed by Trump, are facing mounting pressure over their approach to communicating economic policy.
Some investors said that Bessent’s abrupt announcement of bond buybacks this week reduced the credibility of the Treasury’s guidance. And Warsh has stripped back the US central bank’s communications with investors, drastically reducing rate-setters’ guidance on what to expect from US interest rates.
Warsh will address central bankers and economists at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole gathering on Friday for the first time as Fed chair, where he is expected to use his speech to set out the framework behind his pared-back style.
In a poll of academic economists conducted for the FT by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, a majority said they were increasingly concerned that the Fed would take longer to bring inflation back under control and some criticised Warsh and Bessent’s approach to communications.
Nearly 60 per cent of those polled said it would take the central bank longer to get back to its 2 per cent target than when Warsh was confirmed as Fed chair by the Senate in mid-May.
Inflation has been running above the Fed’s 2 per cent goal for more than five years and the conflict between Tehran and Washington has pushed up petrol and diesel costs, putting fresh upward pressure on prices. Trump’s latest bout of tariffs on Canada and his administration’s threats towards countries it deems to be aiding Iran could add to that.
“What is unsettling is Warsh’s unwillingness to provide a clear and open assessment of the current situation and the outlook for the US economy,” said Christiane Baumeister of the University of Notre-Dame. “This gives rise to unnecessary speculation which has the potential to jeopardise stability and raise concerns about the Fed’s credibility.”
More than 60 per cent of respondents said that concerns over the US central bank’s credibility had either a very substantial or a somewhat substantial impact on the rise in long-term yields since Trump nominated Warsh in late January.
Robert Barbera of Johns Hopkins University said Bessent’s bond market intervention had made the “dollar look iffy”. A depreciation of the US currency would raise inflationary risks by increasing the price of imports.
Eric Rosengren, a former head of the Boston Fed, said that while Warsh could remain silent on future decisions, he needed to explain current ones. “The communication strategy is driving a loss of Fed credibility,” Rosengren said.
Almost three-quarters of those polled said the shift from the more open communications strategy of his predecessors — Jay Powell, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke — was the most important change Warsh had made since becoming chair in late May. A large majority of respondents — 75 per cent — said Warsh’s overall performance since becoming chair was in line with their expectations.
Warsh has previously said that he hoped breaking the feedback loop between the Fed and investors would mean that markets would focus less on scrutinising officials’ remarks and more on economic data.
“The Fed had become more and more entwined in micromanaging markets, to the detriment of the functioning of the capital market,” said Deborah Lucas, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Warsh is willing to stand up against the vested interests in the status quo to try to reverse this. I commend him for it.”
Jon Faust, a fellow at Johns Hopkins who worked as an adviser to former Fed chair Powell, said Warsh had allayed concerns that he would pander to pressure from Trump, who has consistently called for the US central bank to slash borrowing costs despite high inflation.
“He has pretty much overcome the sock-puppet fears and he hasn’t gone in and caused turmoil inside the Fed,” said Faust. “There have been some horror scenarios that have been pretty firmly ruled out.”