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北京时间·🕒 发布 17:41:43时区推断·⟳ 抓取 17:42:18·⚡ 决策 07-23 17:48:04 +5m46s·96.1 天前
雀巢半年报利润率受咖啡和可可成本挤压，股价盘中大跌
雀巢H1基础交易营业利润同比下降2.8%至71亿瑞郎，基础交易营业利润率降至16.4%，管理层将H2利润率指引调整为与H1大致相当，低于此前改善预期。
📄 原文Financial Times↗ 原文
Nestlé shares tumble as coffee and cocoa prices hit profits
Nestlé’s shares suffered their biggest drop since 2020 after the Swiss food group’s sales disappointed and profit margi…
不做 雀巢（NESN.CH）
财报利空明确但已在瑞士盘中快速反映为近7%下跌，继续追空缺少剩余edge；同时财报仍有有机增长和现金流改善，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- 雀巢按日程发布2026年半年报和电话会材料，是本次财报信息的一手来源。
- Reuters转发公司半年报要点，披露H1销售、利润率、EPS和各品类表现，信息已公开扩散。
- FT报道雀巢因销售和利润率失望盘中跌近7%，为2020年以来最大跌幅。市场反应:NESN.SW盘中跌近7%。
关键理由
- 雀巢H1基础交易营业利润同比下降2.8%至71亿瑞郎，基础交易营业利润率降至16.4%，管理层将H2利润率指引调整为与H1大致相当，低于此前改善预期。
- 成本压力来自咖啡、可可价格、婴儿配方奶粉召回、关税和营销投入，属于对利润率预期的直接下修。
- 负面已经在瑞士盘中被快速交易，FT称股价跌近7%，属于财报即时重定价后的跟随信号。
主要风险
- 若咖啡和可可价格后续回落或成本节约兑现，利润率压力可能被市场重新修正。
- 本事件是财报日明牌披露，盘中已大幅下跌，继续追空存在低位成交和反弹风险。
反向证据
- 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-23 · 影响 weakens
半年报仍有3.6%有机增长、Q2 RIG改善至1.8%、自由现金流同比增长46.3%，削弱追空强度。
检索:Nestle half-year 2026 results cost savings organic growth counter evidence 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,405 字
Nestlé shares tumble as coffee and cocoa prices hit profits
Nestlé’s shares suffered their biggest drop since 2020 after the Swiss food group’s sales disappointed and profit margins were squeezed by high coffee and cocoa prices.
Shares in the KitKat maker fell almost 7 per cent on Thursday after it said it expected its operating profit margin would be “broadly similar” in the second half of the year to the first after previously forecasting stronger margins.
The negative investor reaction comes as Nestlé’s new leaders attempt a sweeping turnaround to rectify years of underperformance. New chief executive Philipp Navratil and chair Pablo Isla, the former Inditex boss, have simplified the group’s sprawling organisational structure and sold off parts of its portfolio.
Shares had risen in the run-up to earnings over expectations that the group’s second-quarter results would show a 2 per cent rise in sales volumes.
However, sales volumes rose only 1.8 per cent in the second quarter of the year, in line with consensus analyst estimates but lower than some had forecast.
“Given the rally, we don’t think the [volume] print is quite good enough,” said Barclays analyst Warren Ackerman.
The company’s operating profit margin fell 0.1 percentage points year on year to 16.4 per cent in the first half, held back by higher coffee and cocoa prices. Operating profit fell 2.8 per cent to SFr7.1bn ($8.7bn).
Nestlé said its operating margin was also affected by increased marketing spend, tariffs and its global infant formula recall earlier this year. The group has been forced to issue recalls for products potentially contaminated with cereulide, a toxin that can cause nausea and vomiting.
Bernstein analyst Callum Elliott said the change to margin guidance for the rest of 2026 “takes the shine off” Nestlé’s earnings.
Despite the margin downgrade and weaker than expected volumes, Nestlé reported better than expected revenues in the second quarter of the year. Sales rose 3.7 per cent, driven by price rises of 1.9 per cent.
Nestlé also announced it had formed a multibillion-euro joint venture for its water business with private equity firm Platinum Equity in a deal that will raise €3bn for the Nespresso maker.
The new company, called Peranel, will be a 50-50 joint venture valued at €4.9bn. It will comprise 30 brands sold in 120 countries, including San Pellegrino, Perrier and Acqua Panna.
Nestlé’s shares suffered their biggest drop since 2020 after the Swiss food group’s sales disappointed and profit margins were squeezed by high coffee and cocoa prices.
Shares in the KitKat maker fell almost 7 per cent on Thursday after it said it expected its operating profit margin would be “broadly similar” in the second half of the year to the first after previously forecasting stronger margins.
The negative investor reaction comes as Nestlé’s new leaders attempt a sweeping turnaround to rectify years of underperformance. New chief executive Philipp Navratil and chair Pablo Isla, the former Inditex boss, have simplified the group’s sprawling organisational structure and sold off parts of its portfolio.
Shares had risen in the run-up to earnings over expectations that the group’s second-quarter results would show a 2 per cent rise in sales volumes.
However, sales volumes rose only 1.8 per cent in the second quarter of the year, in line with consensus analyst estimates but lower than some had forecast.
“Given the rally, we don’t think the [volume] print is quite good enough,” said Barclays analyst Warren Ackerman.
The company’s operating profit margin fell 0.1 percentage points year on year to 16.4 per cent in the first half, held back by higher coffee and cocoa prices. Operating profit fell 2.8 per cent to SFr7.1bn ($8.7bn).
Nestlé said its operating margin was also affected by increased marketing spend, tariffs and its global infant formula recall earlier this year. The group has been forced to issue recalls for products potentially contaminated with cereulide, a toxin that can cause nausea and vomiting.
Bernstein analyst Callum Elliott said the change to margin guidance for the rest of 2026 “takes the shine off” Nestlé’s earnings.
Despite the margin downgrade and weaker than expected volumes, Nestlé reported better than expected revenues in the second quarter of the year. Sales rose 3.7 per cent, driven by price rises of 1.9 per cent.
Nestlé also announced it had formed a multibillion-euro joint venture for its water business with private equity firm Platinum Equity in a deal that will raise €3bn for the Nespresso maker.
The new company, called Peranel, will be a 50-50 joint venture valued at €4.9bn. It will comprise 30 brands sold in 120 countries, including San Pellegrino, Perrier and Acqua Panna.
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