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北京时间·🕒 发布 07-18 18:00:02时区推断·⟳ 抓取 07-18 21:42:37·⚡ 决策 07-21 11:10:55 +2d13h·98.3 天前
外卖平台削弱大型披萨连锁配送护城河但已是长期行业压力
文章披露披萨连锁配送销售自2021年以来下滑约15%、Domino’s过去一年跌约30%,但这是长期竞争格局复盘而非新发生的离散催化。
📄 原文Financial Times↗ 原文
Rise of delivery apps takes a bite out of sales for Big Pizza
Big pizza chains are struggling as delivery apps level the playing field with other restaurants, giving independent piz…
不做 Domino's Pizza(DPZ.US)
长期行业压力和财报前背景分析,不是新增强空催化;未核借券且默认不开空,等待财报新信息。
不做 Papa Johns(PZZA.US)
约200家关店计划和配送竞争压力已属行业复盘,缺少新鲜、可量化、未定价的交易边界,不做。
不做 DoorDash(DASH.US)
外卖平台受益逻辑是长期背景,不能从披萨连锁压力直接推出DoorDash短期收入或利润增量,不做。
不做 Uber(UBER.US)
Uber Eats受益属于长期行业迁移主题,本文无新增订单、指引或市值级增量,不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-07-18 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 文章披露披萨连锁配送销售自2021年以来下滑约15%、Domino’s过去一年跌约30%,但这是长期竞争格局复盘而非新发生的离散催化。
主要风险
- Domino’s即将公布财报,若财报或指引显著低于预期,需作为新财报事件重新判断。
原文全文
展开原文 · 5,310 字
Rise of delivery apps takes a bite out of sales for Big Pizza
Big pizza chains are struggling as delivery apps level the playing field with other restaurants, giving independent pizzerias and other cuisines access to a market once dominated by corporate pizza’s armies of drivers.
Papa Johns plans to close about 200 locations by December. Pizza Hut sold to private equity last month. And shares in Domino’s have slid about 30 per cent in the past year. Chain pizza revenue declined overall in 2025 after years of slowing growth, according to market research firm Technomic.
Domino’s, which reports earnings on Monday, lowered its guidance last quarter, blaming high inflation and petrol prices. Chief executive Russell Weiner said he thought Domino’s delivery business would improve when the economy does, and that the company could still grow comparable sales this year. Chains are also fighting to keep pace with delivery app features: Last quarter, Papa Johns launched live delivery tracking in its app nationwide.
Analysts say a significant reason for pizza’s tumble is a long-term challenge facing the delivery business.
Once, pizza chains’ delivery apparatus was the biggest game in town for hungry consumers who wanted hot food at their door. Now, the likes of Uber Eats and DoorDash mean other types of restaurants have easy access to the capability that once set Domino’s and its peers apart.
Delivery sales at quick-service pizza chains have slipped roughly 15 per cent since 2021, according to JPMorgan.
Domino’s declined to comment, citing an earnings quiet period. Papa Johns and Yum Brands, which owns Pizza Hut until the sale closes, did not respond to requests for comment.
While delivery apps debuted in the mid-2010s, they flourished during the Covid-19 pandemic. Uber Eats and DoorDash both saw revenue roughly triple in 2020.
The rise of delivery apps provided a short-term boost for some pizza companies. Papa Johns and Pizza Hut, which both joined the apps in the late 2010s, said that the availability of third-party delivery drivers helped them mitigate a pandemic-era labour shortage.
Domino’s, which stayed true to its proprietary delivery service, told investors in 2022 that the “stark impact” of staffing shortages had significantly affected delivery sales.
But even as the labour shortage receded in 2023, the delivery business at pizza chains continued to decline. According to JPMorgan, total delivery sales at US quick-service pizza chains fell from $19.8bn in 2021 to $17.3bn in 2022 — and then kept falling to $16.5bn in 2023.
Analysts said third-party apps have dramatically increased the competitive pressure facing pizza delivery from all sides.
Pizza chains “used to have a large gap relative to competitors when it came to technology,” said Jon Tower, an analyst at Citibank. Pizza Hut, Papa Johns and Domino’s all launched mobile ordering apps by the early 2010s, which allowed the chains to offer a smoother ordering process than independent pizzerias and to promote deals on the app.
Now local pizza stores can simply sell on Uber Eats. “The competitive moat around technology that [chains] once had has dwindled,” Tower said.
Domino’s and Papa Johns both started listing “competition from delivery aggregators and other food delivery services” as a risk factor on its SEC filings in 2018.
The apps have also eaten into chain pizza’s marketing advantage. Uber Eats “is like Google for food,” said Logan Reich, an analyst at RBC. “That’s where the customer goes to discover.” On the apps, Domino’s, Papa Johns and the like get equal billing with local restaurants.
Historically, “there are very few categories of food that travel well” and were available for delivery, said Rahul Krotthapalli, an analyst at JPMorgan. “Pizza, Asian or it’s getting soggy.”
Dimitri Pahis, a college student from New York City, orders food delivery several times a month, but rarely pizza: “Mostly, I just get Chick-fil-A,” he said. The chicken sandwich chain launched nationwide delivery on DoorDash in 2018.
Pizza companies have felt the pain. “The competition has grown exponentially,” Stephen Kennedy, chief of marketing at Marco’s Pizza, one of the largest chains in the US, told the FT.
In addition to new competition, Marco’s own delivery service must now keep pace with the delivery times offered by the apps, or risk losing customers. “Consumer expectations just continue to grow every day,” Kennedy said.
The pressure is heightened as a difficult economic environment hurts chain pizza’s customers. “As dollars are harder to come by, expectations go up with that,” he added. “People’s attention spans are lower, their patience is lower.”
Domino’s credited its presence on third-party apps for helping to keep deliveries steady last quarter, since the apps reach a higher-income consumer on average.
Without the apps, Domino’s delivery business would have taken “even a bigger hit,” chief executive Weiner told investors in April.
Staci Fortun orders delivery just a few times a year, so she likes to “spin the roulette wheel” on the apps and order something new every time. Fortun, a teacher who stopped for pizza on a recent night in Brooklyn, NY, recalls that “pizza and Chinese food” used to be the only options for delivery — but now, she said, “the world is your oyster.”
Big pizza chains are struggling as delivery apps level the playing field with other restaurants, giving independent pizzerias and other cuisines access to a market once dominated by corporate pizza’s armies of drivers.
Papa Johns plans to close about 200 locations by December. Pizza Hut sold to private equity last month. And shares in Domino’s have slid about 30 per cent in the past year. Chain pizza revenue declined overall in 2025 after years of slowing growth, according to market research firm Technomic.
Domino’s, which reports earnings on Monday, lowered its guidance last quarter, blaming high inflation and petrol prices. Chief executive Russell Weiner said he thought Domino’s delivery business would improve when the economy does, and that the company could still grow comparable sales this year. Chains are also fighting to keep pace with delivery app features: Last quarter, Papa Johns launched live delivery tracking in its app nationwide.
Analysts say a significant reason for pizza’s tumble is a long-term challenge facing the delivery business.
Once, pizza chains’ delivery apparatus was the biggest game in town for hungry consumers who wanted hot food at their door. Now, the likes of Uber Eats and DoorDash mean other types of restaurants have easy access to the capability that once set Domino’s and its peers apart.
Delivery sales at quick-service pizza chains have slipped roughly 15 per cent since 2021, according to JPMorgan.
Domino’s declined to comment, citing an earnings quiet period. Papa Johns and Yum Brands, which owns Pizza Hut until the sale closes, did not respond to requests for comment.
While delivery apps debuted in the mid-2010s, they flourished during the Covid-19 pandemic. Uber Eats and DoorDash both saw revenue roughly triple in 2020.
The rise of delivery apps provided a short-term boost for some pizza companies. Papa Johns and Pizza Hut, which both joined the apps in the late 2010s, said that the availability of third-party delivery drivers helped them mitigate a pandemic-era labour shortage.
Domino’s, which stayed true to its proprietary delivery service, told investors in 2022 that the “stark impact” of staffing shortages had significantly affected delivery sales.
But even as the labour shortage receded in 2023, the delivery business at pizza chains continued to decline. According to JPMorgan, total delivery sales at US quick-service pizza chains fell from $19.8bn in 2021 to $17.3bn in 2022 — and then kept falling to $16.5bn in 2023.
Analysts said third-party apps have dramatically increased the competitive pressure facing pizza delivery from all sides.
Pizza chains “used to have a large gap relative to competitors when it came to technology,” said Jon Tower, an analyst at Citibank. Pizza Hut, Papa Johns and Domino’s all launched mobile ordering apps by the early 2010s, which allowed the chains to offer a smoother ordering process than independent pizzerias and to promote deals on the app.
Now local pizza stores can simply sell on Uber Eats. “The competitive moat around technology that [chains] once had has dwindled,” Tower said.
Domino’s and Papa Johns both started listing “competition from delivery aggregators and other food delivery services” as a risk factor on its SEC filings in 2018.
The apps have also eaten into chain pizza’s marketing advantage. Uber Eats “is like Google for food,” said Logan Reich, an analyst at RBC. “That’s where the customer goes to discover.” On the apps, Domino’s, Papa Johns and the like get equal billing with local restaurants.
Historically, “there are very few categories of food that travel well” and were available for delivery, said Rahul Krotthapalli, an analyst at JPMorgan. “Pizza, Asian or it’s getting soggy.”
Dimitri Pahis, a college student from New York City, orders food delivery several times a month, but rarely pizza: “Mostly, I just get Chick-fil-A,” he said. The chicken sandwich chain launched nationwide delivery on DoorDash in 2018.
Pizza companies have felt the pain. “The competition has grown exponentially,” Stephen Kennedy, chief of marketing at Marco’s Pizza, one of the largest chains in the US, told the FT.
In addition to new competition, Marco’s own delivery service must now keep pace with the delivery times offered by the apps, or risk losing customers. “Consumer expectations just continue to grow every day,” Kennedy said.
The pressure is heightened as a difficult economic environment hurts chain pizza’s customers. “As dollars are harder to come by, expectations go up with that,” he added. “People’s attention spans are lower, their patience is lower.”
Domino’s credited its presence on third-party apps for helping to keep deliveries steady last quarter, since the apps reach a higher-income consumer on average.
Without the apps, Domino’s delivery business would have taken “even a bigger hit,” chief executive Weiner told investors in April.
Staci Fortun orders delivery just a few times a year, so she likes to “spin the roulette wheel” on the apps and order something new every time. Fortun, a teacher who stopped for pizza on a recent night in Brooklyn, NY, recalls that “pizza and Chinese food” used to be the only options for delivery — but now, she said, “the world is your oyster.”
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