📰 Financial TimesFinancial TimesCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 15:43:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 15:43:19·⚡ 决策 07-29 15:45:15 +1m56s·90.2 天前
嘉能可上半年大宗商品交易利润因中东动荡翻倍并超预期
嘉能可预计上半年 marketing 部门 EBIT 约33亿美元，较去年同期约14亿美元翻倍，并比分析师预期高约10亿美元。
📄 原文Financial Times↗ 原文
Glencore trading profits double on Middle East turmoil
Glencore’s earnings from trading commodities doubled in the first half of the year as war in the Middle East supercharg…
不做 嘉能可（GLEN.GB）
利好方向明确，但伦敦早盘已上涨约4%，且本次利润超预期主要来自中东冲突带来的交易波动、下半年可持续性未给指引；当前追入剩余edge不足，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- FT报道嘉能可生产报告显示上半年 marketing 部门预计盈利33亿美元，能源交易受中东动荡提振。市场反应:FT称嘉能可伦敦早盘上涨约4%。
- WSJ同日确认嘉能可上半年 marketing EBIT 预计约33亿美元，并提到铜产量同比增长15%。
关键理由
- 嘉能可预计上半年 marketing 部门 EBIT 约33亿美元，较去年同期约14亿美元翻倍，并比分析师预期高约10亿美元。
- 本次超预期主要来自中东冲突带来的能源市场波动，属于交易业务高波动环境下的盈利弹性，而非长期产能或订单增量。
- 公司同时披露铜产量同比增长15%，但小幅下调炼焦煤指引，且半年度正式业绩下周发布，后续 marketing 指引仍不明确。
主要风险
- 股价在伦敦早盘已按利好上涨约4%，短线追入的剩余预期差被压缩。
- RBC指出公司未给出下半年 marketing 指引，中东冲突驱动的交易利润可持续性较弱。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-29 · 影响 weakens
RBC指出公司没有给出下半年 marketing 指引，削弱把一次性波动利润外推为全年盈利上修的确定性。
检索:Glencore marketing EBIT 2026 second half guidance uncertainty RBC 原文 ↗
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,426 字
Glencore trading profits double on Middle East turmoil
Glencore’s earnings from trading commodities doubled in the first half of the year as war in the Middle East supercharged profit levels across the world’s biggest oil trading firms.
The Swiss company said in a production report on Wednesday that it expected earnings of $3.3bn in its “marketing” division, which includes energy trading, in the six months to the end of June.
The figure would be the second-highest since the bumper profits reported in 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sparked an energy crisis, and $1bn more than analysts’ expectations.
Other oil trading firms including Trafigura and Mercuria also reported exceptionally strong profits during the early days of the US-Israeli war against Iran, which began in late February.
The conflict in the Middle East has caused huge volatility in energy markets and surges in the price of fuels such as diesel and petrol — market conditions under which oil traders generally thrive.
Trafigura reported bumper profits of $4.1bn in the six months to the end of March, boosted by the war in the Middle East at the end of the period. The company paid a record dividend during the first half.
Mercuria’s net profit doubled during the six-month period to the end of March and the company reported its second-highest first-half profit in its history.
Glencore, which is also a big producer of coal and copper, reports first-half earnings next week.
The Swiss group is among the world’s largest energy traders, handling about 4.2mn barrels of oil equivalent per day last year.
In its production report, the company said copper production was up 15 per cent year-on-year, although it slightly lowered its guidance for steelmaking coal during the period.
Glencore has been working to expand its copper production portfolio and held deal talks with mining group Rio Tinto this year, although they were ultimately unsuccessful.
“We expect a positive reaction to the . . . production report, driven by better-than-expected marketing performance,” wrote Barclays analyst Ian Rossouw in a note to clients. Glencore shares rose 4 per cent in early trading in London.
Ben Davis of RBC noted that it was “curious that Glencore is not giving further guidance on marketing for the remainder of the year”.
The quick-changing nature of the war in the Middle East has made the outlook highly uncertain for energy traders.
Glencore’s earnings from trading commodities doubled in the first half of the year as war in the Middle East supercharged profit levels across the world’s biggest oil trading firms.
The Swiss company said in a production report on Wednesday that it expected earnings of $3.3bn in its “marketing” division, which includes energy trading, in the six months to the end of June.
The figure would be the second-highest since the bumper profits reported in 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sparked an energy crisis, and $1bn more than analysts’ expectations.
Other oil trading firms including Trafigura and Mercuria also reported exceptionally strong profits during the early days of the US-Israeli war against Iran, which began in late February.
The conflict in the Middle East has caused huge volatility in energy markets and surges in the price of fuels such as diesel and petrol — market conditions under which oil traders generally thrive.
Trafigura reported bumper profits of $4.1bn in the six months to the end of March, boosted by the war in the Middle East at the end of the period. The company paid a record dividend during the first half.
Mercuria’s net profit doubled during the six-month period to the end of March and the company reported its second-highest first-half profit in its history.
Glencore, which is also a big producer of coal and copper, reports first-half earnings next week.
The Swiss group is among the world’s largest energy traders, handling about 4.2mn barrels of oil equivalent per day last year.
In its production report, the company said copper production was up 15 per cent year-on-year, although it slightly lowered its guidance for steelmaking coal during the period.
Glencore has been working to expand its copper production portfolio and held deal talks with mining group Rio Tinto this year, although they were ultimately unsuccessful.
“We expect a positive reaction to the . . . production report, driven by better-than-expected marketing performance,” wrote Barclays analyst Ian Rossouw in a note to clients. Glencore shares rose 4 per cent in early trading in London.
Ben Davis of RBC noted that it was “curious that Glencore is not giving further guidance on marketing for the remainder of the year”.
The quick-changing nature of the war in the Middle East has made the outlook highly uncertain for energy traders.
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