首都圈预售分化加剧，京畿大型楼盘去化疲弱拖累韩国建商利润预期

More than 10,000 apartment units went on presale in the greater Seoul area in July and August, but demand concentrated in Seoul despite complaints about high prices, while even large branded complexes in Gyeonggi Province repeatedly fell short of full subscription. Even as rising Seoul home prices spread across the capital region, the gap between Seoul and Gyeonggi in the new presale market has grown wider.
Of the 13 complexes that went on presale in Gyeonggi Province in July and August, only four filled their units during the general first-priority round, according to the Korea Real Estate Board's subscription portal on the 30th.
Hobat Summit Pungmu III in Gimpo, a 660-unit complex, drew 2,737 applications for 266 units offered in the general first-priority round, the highest average ratio at 10.3 to 1. Uiwang Station SK View, with 1,857 units, and Uiwang Station Hanshin The Hue, with 297 units, filled their units at average ratios of 7.5 to 1 and 8.6 to 1, respectively, helped by applicants from outside the immediate area.
By contrast, Hangang Prugio Riverfront in Gimpo, with 2,343 units, Osan Heritage Xi Complexes 1 and 2, with 1,783 units, and Doosan We've the Zenith Bucheon, with 1,728 units, all large complexes from top-tier brands, fell well short in the first and second priority rounds, sending much of their inventory to open sales. Sangdong Station Lotte Castle Signature in Bucheon, a 1,859-unit complex that drew attention for offering a penthouse priced at up to 6 billion won ($4.3 million), also came up short in some unit types, receiving only 3,028 applications for 1,536 units through the second priority round.
Seoul told a different story over the same period. Five complexes went on presale in the city in July and August, including Dongjak Central Dongmoon The East with 301 units in Dongjak District, Wolgye Jung-heung S-Class Riviere with 355 units in Nowon District, and Chungjeongno Station Xi Rene with 299 units in Jung District. Together they offered 291 units in the general first-priority round and drew 17,322 applications, an average ratio of 59.5 to 1, selling out every unit type. In Gyeonggi Province, the 13 complexes offered 8,079 units in general sales, including units left over from special supply, and drew a combined 13,512 applications through the second priority round, an average of just 1.7 to 1.
Industry officials attribute the shift to weaker expectations for price gains, with unsold homes in Gyeonggi Province piling up to 13,553 units as of June, coupled with presale prices that have risen along with construction costs. The pullback in Gyeonggi housing demand has already lasted a year. According to Real House, a presale analysis firm, the first-priority subscription ratio in Gyeonggi Province held at around 10 to 12 to 1 on a 12-month moving average through the first half of 2025, but fell to 2.57 to 1 in July.
"When you compare individual complexes, new Gyeonggi projects are no worse than Seoul ones in presale price, brand, product quality or scale, yet the subscription results lag badly," one industry official said. "The burden of high presale prices from rising construction costs is common to both, but in Seoul, where supply is severely short, new presales are drawing attention as a way to buy a home, while in Gyeonggi they are treated as just one option among many."
The weaker demand also shows up in subscription savings accounts. First-priority accounts in Incheon and Gyeonggi totaled 5,848,728 at the end of July, down 445,774, or 7.1%, from a year earlier, according to the Korea Real Estate Board. That accounts for half, or 49.4%, of the 901,555 first-priority accounts closed nationwide over the past year, and more than three times Seoul's decline of 142,042. As the view that subscription accounts are useless spreads beyond provincial areas into Gyeonggi Province, the number of subscription account holders nationwide has shrunk by about 1.1 million in two years.
The slowdown in the Gyeonggi presale market is also weighing on builders, who are finding it hard to set presale prices as construction and financing costs keep climbing without demand to match. Presale prices for private apartments in Seoul averaged 62.09 million won per 3.3 square meters in July, up 36.6% from a year earlier, according to the Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation. In Gyeonggi Province, the figure was 23.78 million won, up 1.51 million won, or 6.8%, from 22.27 million won a year earlier.
"Construction costs have pushed up our expenses, but outside Seoul we cannot pass those increases through to presale prices, so project profitability is deteriorating," one construction industry official said. "Financing costs are also substantial, so we are going ahead with projects already planned, but we have to think hard about new supply in Gyeonggi Province going forward."
With tight lending rules in place and interest rates rising, the concentration in Seoul and the gap between regions are expected to widen further in both transactions and new subscriptions. "Owner-occupier buyers in Gyeonggi, Incheon and provincial areas rely on loans more heavily than Seoul buyers," one presale industry official said. "Prices of existing apartments have been rising recently, particularly in southern Gyeonggi, as buyers priced out of Seoul move in, but that warmth is unlikely to reach new presales, where the loan burden and uncertainty about the future are much greater."