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CNBC Top NewsDoubao · 实盘不做把握 3/10不做原因:无增量信息
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:26:27(美东 06:26)·⟳ 抓取 18:26:34 +7s·⚡ 决策 10-13 18:27:40 +1m06s·14.4 天前

摩根大通、富国、花旗、高盛Q3财报盘前将公布,CNBC预览仅列一致预期无实际业绩

这是财报发布前的媒体预览和一致预期汇总,没有任何已公布的实际业绩、指引或正式管理层声明;盘前也不可成交,不能在不知道beat/miss的情况下预先做多或做空。

📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
Bank earnings live updates: JPMorgan and Wells Fargo results are up first
The quarter was dominated by headlines around artificial intelligence, IPO uncertainty, high fuel prices and rising bor…
不做 JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)
实际Q3财报尚未发布,当前只有一致预期;盘前不可成交,等待8:00业绩与8:30电话会确认预期差。
不做 Wells Fargo(WFC.US)
NII、存款成本和拨备方向需实际财报验证,预览数字不足以产生交易edge。
不做 Citigroup(C.US)
交易收入和信贷损失的最终结果未公布,无法判断beat/miss及开盘风险。
不做 Goldman Sachs(GS.US)
交易/投行费与继任传闻多空交织,需等正式财报、管理层回应和开盘承接后再交易。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)

研究档案

结论摘要

CNBC只是在四大行Q3财报出炉前列出LSEG/StreetAccount预期和待问议题,信息基本已被市场掌握。应等待8:00实际财报和电话会确认预期差后,再按个股盈利质量与开盘承接交易。

🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-10-13 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 medium ↗

关键理由

  • 无新增已实现财务事实:所有EPS、收入和分部数字均为预期,不构成方向性催化。
  • 四大行业绩驱动分化且高利率、存款成本、投行费和信贷损失影响方向相反,事件层面无法得出统一正edge。

主要风险

  • 若在财报实际发布前押方向,容易在8:00业绩beat/miss和8:30后电话会指引之间遭遇双向跳空。
  • 高盛继任、AI agent存款迁移等议题均为既有传闻或行业讨论,未经本次电话会证实。

反向证据

  • 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
    当前输入仅有预览与预期,未提供实际beat或上调指引;不能把预期数字当作利好。
    检索:JPMorgan Wells Fargo Citigroup Goldman Sachs Q3 2026 earnings beat miss guidance actual results 原文 ↗
  • 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-10-13 · 影响 weakens
    高利率、投行业务下滑、AI存款迁移和继任风险均为背景风险,文章未给出已实现重大利空或下修指引。
    检索:big banks Q3 2026 deposit costs investment banking decline AI agents bank run Goldman succession risk 原文 ↗

先例如何影响了这次决策

对本次决策的影响:不支持盘前提前开仓;决定AVOID,等待实际财报后再判。

方向:未使用先例:当前不是已实现财报surprise,而是财报前预期汇总,历史财报反应不能替代即将公布的实际数据。

涨幅量级:不足以校准止盈止损;需在实际beat/miss、指引和开盘跳空出现后,再研究同主体高相似财报先例。

形态:无可由本事件确认的见光死或高开低走模式。

原文全文

展开原文 · 9,933 字
The quarter was dominated by headlines around artificial intelligence, IPO uncertainty, high fuel prices and rising borrowing costs.
All four reports are due by 8 a.m. ET, and executives from each of the banks will be addressing those topics and more during earnings calls between 8:30 a.m. and 11 a.m. ET.
The Muse effect: Do banks face disruption risk from AI agents?
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of the Facebook parent company Meta, takes the stage at the Meta Connect developer conference.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
One likely topic for today's analyst calls will be around whether banks aren't just the beneficiary of AI, but at risk from it.
Specifically, AI agents like Meta's Muse could make it easier for customers to move money from accounts that pay almost nothing to accounts with higher yields. Last month, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok even outlined a possible bank run scenario caused by AI.
"If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans," Slok wrote. That would "be a problem for the entire financial system."
Some banks faced higher deposit costs last quarter, but that's amid the backdrop of surging Treasury yields, according to StreetAccount.
Bank stocks were hit by concerns over AI agents last month, just as shares of Meta were rising as its Muse app topped the app download charts.
But over the longer term, banks will develop their own agent interfaces, insulating them from the threat, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in an Oct. 4 note.
"Investors continue to inquire about the potential for agentic AI to disrupt banking deposits, fees, margins and customer acquisition," Poonawala wrote. "While the timing and magnitude remain uncertain, one implication is becoming clearer: banks may increasingly need to build for the agent, not just the customer."
— Hugh Son
26 Min Ago
Oura's shelved IPO raises questions about Wall Street's deal outlook
Tom Hale, chief executive officer of Oura Health Oy, wears an Oura Ring during an interview in San Francisco, California, US, on Friday, June 14, 2024.
Those are the questions analysts will have for Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase after a string of high-profile IPOs were put on hold in recent months, including the listing of smart ring maker Oura, which cited uncertain market conditions as its reason for delay.
Global investment banking revenue in the third quarter fell 6.6% from a year earlier to $27.2 billion, thanks to declines in closed mergers and debt issuance, according to Dealogic data.
But the slowdown is far from uniform across Wall Street.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned in September that third-quarter investment banking fees were headed for a decline of more than 10%, while trading revenue will be roughly flat.
Citigroup expected to do a bit better: CFO Gonzalo Luchetti told analysts at the same conference that investment banking is tracking for "low-single-digit" revenue growth, while trading revenue was heading for "mid-single-digit" growth.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan co-president Doug Petno told analysts last month that both investment banking and trading revenue were headed for a percentage jump in the mid- to high-teens, showing that the boom continues at some banks.
— Hugh Son
36 Min Ago
The breakdown of segment revenues expected for Citigroup
According to consensus metrics from StreetAccount, Citigroup is expected to report $4.31 billion in revenue for its fixed income markets division. It's also expected to report $1.76 billion in revenue in equity markets and $1.29 billion in investment banking fees.
Analysts are expecting Citi to report $2.41 billion in net credit losses and $2.62 billion in provisions for credit losses.
– Laya Neelakandan
41 Min Ago
Jamie Dimon's warning on interest rates is coming into focus
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., during the America Business Forum in Miami, Florida, US, on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
For years, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that interest rates could climb higher than investors expect, fueled by persistent inflation and geopolitical conflicts.
Investors may get a fresh read on that outlook as the big banks report third-quarter results.
Bond markets sold off during the period amid renewed inflation concerns, rising oil prices and questions about how the growing wave of debt tied to artificial intelligence is impacting credit markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield — a benchmark that influences borrowing costs across the economy — jumped to about 5.3% by the end of September, the highest level in more than two decades. Bond prices fall as yields rise, pushing up financing costs for businesses and consumers.
For banks, higher rates are a double-edged sword.
Lenders may earn more on new loans, but they also face pressure to pay more to retain deposits as money market funds and Treasuries become enticing to investors. Higher borrowing costs may weigh on loan demand, while tighter financial conditions could complicate mergers and IPOs.
Ultimately, higher rates can strain borrowers' finances, pushing some into default.
Those concerns weighed on bank stocks during the third quarter. The S&P 500 Banks Index fell 5.4%, while the broader S&P 500 gained about 2.3%.
— Hugh Son
56 Min Ago
Is the clock ticking on Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's tenure?
John Waldron, chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon.
This will be the first chance that analysts have to directly ask Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon about reports that he could be replaced by his main deputy, John Waldron, as soon as next year.
If Waldron, who currently serves as Goldman president and chief operating officer, takes over as CEO, Solomon would likely remain as executive chairman for a period of time, an arrangement designed to engineer a smooth handoff.
But it's unclear if Solomon, 64, is ready to release the reins of the top Wall Street investment bank, just as his company has hit its stride.
Solomon has gotten Goldman back on track after an ill-fated foray into consumer banking earlier in his tenure. With help from the artificial intelligence boom and a rebound in deals and trading, Goldman shares have outpaced rivals over the past year.
Goldman spokesman Tony Fratto has said there is "no definitive timeline for succession" at the bank.
Both Solomon and Waldron were awarded $80 bonuses in 2025 to keep them at the bank through 2030.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Wells Fargo is expected to report these segment revenues
Analysts are expecting Wells Fargo to report net interest income of $12.66 billion, according to consensus metrics from StreetAccount.
They're also estimating the company will report a provision for credit losses of $1.14 billion.
Last quarter, CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank was "benefitting from the broad-based economic strength" in the U.S.
– Laya Neelakandan
1 Hour Ago
Wells Fargo has a streak of beating revenue expectations
According to StreetAccount, Wells Fargo has beaten consensus expectations for revenue in 12 of the past 20 quarters.
The company has also beaten consensus metrics for earnings per share in 16 of the past 20 quarters, with one report in-line with expectations.
– Laya Neelakandan
1 Hour Ago
Here's what to expect from Citigroup
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Citigroup is set to report its third-quarter results before the bell on Tuesday. Here's what the company is expected to post, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $2.66 expected
Revenue: $23.72 billion expected
Company executives will hold a conference call with analysts at 11 a.m. ET.
– Laya Neelakandan
1 Hour Ago
Here's what analysts are expecting from Goldman Sachs
David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., speaks during the Qatar Economic Forum in New York, US, on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, has benefited from elevated investment banking and trading activity so far this year.
The main question: Will the Wall Street boom continue?
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Earnings per share: $13.02, according to LSEG
Revenue: $16.71 billion, according to LSEG
Trading revenue: fixed income of $3.71 billion, equities of $5.02 billion, according to StreetAccount
Investing banking fees: $2.84 billion, according to StreetAccount
Solomon and CFO Denis Coleman will hold a conference call with analysts at 9:30 a.m. ET.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Here's what Wall Street expects from JPMorgan
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, departs the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 25, 2026.
Graeme Sloan | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Tuesday.
JPMorgan, led by longtime CEO Jamie Dimon, is the biggest U.S. bank by assets and the largest in the world by market capitalization.
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Earnings per share: $5.90 according to LSEG
Revenue: $51.22 billion, according to LSEG
Investment banking fees: $3.02 billion, according to StreetAccount
Trading revenue: Fixed income of $5.95 billion, equities of $4.43 billion, per StreetAccount
Dimon and CFO Jeremy Barnum will hold a conference call with analysts at 8:30 a.m. ET.
— Hugh Son
1 Hour Ago
Here's what analysts are expecting from Wells Fargo
A Wells Fargo logo is displayed on a sign outside of a bank branch on June 6, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images
Wells Fargo is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday. Here's what Wall Street is expecting from the company:
Earnings per share: $1.85 per share expected, according to LSEG
Revenue: $22.3 billion expected, according to LSEG
Company executives will hold a conference call with analysts at 10 a.m. ET.

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  1. d0edb6fd66 · 2026-10-13 18:27 · doubao / doubao-seed-evolving-latest-version · 策略包 2226518bfdee当前