韩国餐饮“lunchflation”延续：万元以下餐厅仅约两成，消费流向便利店盒饭与汉堡，但这是回顾性行业数据而非新增公司催化

A meal that can be covered by a single 10,000-won note is becoming harder to find in South Korea. Prices for staple dishes such as kalguksu, a knife-cut noodle soup, and bibimbap have pushed past 10,000 won, adding to household food costs. Consumers tightening their budgets are shifting from restaurants to convenience store lunch boxes and hamburgers, reshaping spending patterns in the dining-out market.
Only 20.1% of general restaurants had an average spend per customer below 10,000 won last year, according to a survey of restaurant operations by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs released on the 16th. That was down 3.3 percentage points from 23.4% in 2024, leaving roughly one in five restaurants where the average diner spends less than 10,000 won.
Restaurants in higher price brackets expanded their share. Those with average spending of 10,000 won to just under 20,000 won rose to 55.1% last year from 52.4% in 2024, a gain of 2.7 percentage points. Restaurants in the 20,000-won to 30,000-won range increased to 16.1% from 15.6% over the same period, indicating that the center of dining-out spending is moving higher.
Prices have kept rising this year. The average price of kalguksu in Seoul topped 10,000 won for the first time in March, according to Chamgagak, the price information portal run by the Korea Consumer Agency. Gimbap, long an inexpensive option, also became more costly, with its average price up 8.3% in August from a year earlier. All eight major dining-out items tracked, including samgyetang, a ginseng chicken soup, and naengmyeon, cold buckwheat noodles, rose in price.
A bigger problem is that higher menu prices have not improved restaurant finances. Average revenue at general restaurants was 289.31 million won last year, up just 1.4% from 285.22 million won a year earlier. Average operating costs rose 1.7% to 263.78 million won from 259.26 million won over the same period. With costs rising faster than revenue, the average operating margin slipped to 8.8% from 9.1%, a decline of 0.3 percentage point.
Food ingredient costs, wages and rent, together with delivery platform fees and packaging expenses, are squeezing profitability. The structure makes it difficult to offset cost increases through menu price hikes alone. Analysts say restaurants will likely consider further price increases to ease the strain, which in turn could add to what consumers pay to eat out.
The surge in dining-out costs is changing where consumers eat. Convenience stores have emerged as a clear beneficiary. Sales of ready-to-eat items such as lunch boxes, gimbap and rice balls at GS25 rose 18.1% last year from a year earlier, according to GS Retail (007070). The growth rate accelerated to 24.1% in the first half of this year. Demand for cheaper meals than restaurants offer is driving the expansion of the convenience store ready-meal market. "Sales of ready-to-eat meals at lunchtime keep rising, to the point that people talk about lunchflation," a GS Retail official said. "We are also carrying out a renewal to improve the quality and competitiveness of our ready-to-eat lineup."
Fast-food chains built around hamburgers also kept growing. McDonald's Korea posted revenue of 1.4313 trillion won last year, up 14.5% from 1.2502 trillion won a year earlier. Lotte GRS, which operates Lotteria, saw revenue climb 12.4% to 1.1189 trillion won from 995.4 billion won, crossing the 1 trillion won mark. Revenue at Mom's Touch & Company, operator of Mom's Touch, rose 14.6% to 479 billion won from 417.8 billion won. BKR, which runs Burger King, and KFC Korea reported revenue growth of 12.5% and 29.3%, respectively.
Coffee chains are strengthening food menus to capture meal demand. Mega MGC Coffee sells toast and hot dogs, while Compose Coffee has broadened its food lineup with items such as tteokbokki and fresh rolls. Tim Hortons offers salads and soups, and Coffee Bean has introduced burritos and sandwiches, extending their stores into places where customers can have a meal as well as a drink.
"With ingredient costs, wages and various fees all rising, it is hard to defend profitability even after raising menu prices," an industry official said. "Consumers moving to ready-to-eat meals because of price pressure is unwelcome news for restaurants, but with cost pressure continuing, dining-out prices are likely to keep rising for some time."
Kim Yeon-ha's Killing Issue covers the key issues, trends, corporate strategies and market shifts in the food, fashion and beauty industries in depth. It offers useful insight for industry professionals as well as interested readers. Subscribe to receive the latest news quickly.