高温洪涝威胁中国玉米、大豆和棉花产区，或增加美国玉米、高粱和棉花进口需求

High temperatures and heavy rain have battered China's key corn, soybean and cotton-growing regions since mid-July, threatening crop quality and yield losses that could boost imports of feed grains and cotton, including from the United States.

China pledged to buy $17 billion of U.S. agricultural goods ​annually through 2028, excluding soybeans, under a trade war truce, the White House has said.

However, Beijing has yet to make the large-scale ‌non-soybean purchases expected following a meeting of both nations' leaders in May, as markets await news on tariff reductions.

If weather damage reduces output or quality, China could increase imports of corn, sorghum and cotton, potentially bringing U.S. supplies into focus, traders and analysts said.

Last autumn, adverse weather damaged crop quality despite a record harvest, prompting Chinese buyers to increase purchases of corn and feed-grain ​substitutes such as sorghum and barley.

This year, heatwaves and floods have hit China's main corn and soybean regions in the northeast and the ​North China Plain, with corn losses and lower soybean output possible, though higher corn acreage should keep national production broadly ⁠stable, five analysts said.

In northwestern Xinjiang, prolonged heat and scant rainfall are expected to curb cotton yields. The region produces more than 90% of China's cotton ​and has also become an important corn-growing area.

CORN

From mid-July to late August, temperatures at 50 weather stations, mainly in the provinces of Jilin and Liaoning, which are ​major producers of corn and soybean, as well as Xinjiang, matched or exceeded historical records.

Heilongjiang, China's largest corn- and soybean-producing province in the northeast, has also been hit by repeated heavy rain and historic flooding since mid-July, state-run CCTV said this week.

Henan province, a major summer corn and soybean producer in the North China Plain, faced a bout of extreme ​heat in July, followed by heavy rainfall from the remnants of Typhoon Dolphin in mid-August.

"Prolonged heat during corn's critical pollination stage in the North China Plain ​could reduce kernel set, while flooding poses risks to low-lying fields in the northeast," said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.

Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, said ‌Typhoon Dolphin ⁠would probably take a toll on production in Henan, but it would be less damaging than last year's rains during harvest.

Both Liu and Friedrichs said higher corn acreage should largely offset localised yield losses.

China's agriculture ministry forecasts 2026/27 corn area at 45.13 million hectares, up 0.4% from a year earlier.

Quality damage could nonetheless boost demand for imported feed grains, potentially strengthening the case for U.S. purchases.

"The focus would have to be on corn or sorghum because those have historically been the ​highest dollar-value exports to China outside ​of soybeans," Friedrichs said.

China imported 1.36 ⁠million tons of corn from January to July, up 61.3% annually. Sorghum and barley imports rose 86.2% and 53.4%, respectively.

China bought no U.S. corn but imported 2.98 million tons of U.S. sorghum, almost four times its full-year 2025 purchases.

SOYBEANS

Excessive rainfall in ​Heilongjiang has reduced soil temperatures and sunlight, affecting soybean quality and potentially protein content, said Wang Wenshen, analyst ​at Sublime China Information.

Soybean ⁠planting area is expected to fall 0.6% this year to 10.19 million hectares, the agriculture ministry says, as farmers shift to more profitable corn.

The impact on imports is likely to be limited because domestic non-GMO soybeans are mainly used for food, while imported GM beans are primarily crushed for feed.

COTTON

Persistent heat and limited rainfall in Xinjiang ⁠have cut ​the average number of cotton bolls per plant and raised yield-loss risks in some drought-hit fields, ​the agriculture ministry said in its August 12 outlook.

China imported 1.02 million tons of cotton in the first seven months of 2026, nearly matching total imports in all of 2025.

U.S. cotton made up 114,494, matching ​China's full-year 2025 purchases but just 13% of 2024 imports.