CNBC Top NewsCodex · 实盘不做把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05:00:11时区推断·⟳ 抓取 16:58:48·⚡ 决策 07-16 20:44:23 +3h45m·102.9 天前
美联航二季度小幅超预期但三季度指引低于预期且燃油成本显著上升
美联航2Q调整EPS为1.99美元，高于预期1.88美元，收入176.7亿美元略高于预期176.1亿美元。
📄 原文CNBC Top News↗ 原文
United earnings top estimates but airline expects $6 billion in added fuel costs
United Airlines' second-quarter results came in ahead of Wall Street estimates, but billions of dollars in added fuel c…
不做 美联航（UAL.US）
财报略超预期与全年指引上修不足以抵消3Q指引低于预期和60亿美元燃油成本压力；多空信号混杂，当前不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
消息传播链
- CNBC报道UAL二季度EPS和收入均略超预期，但燃油成本显著上升并拖累三季度指引。
- WSJ报道UAL盘后因三季度指引偏弱和燃油成本压力下跌约2%。市场反应:工具最新UAL.US为120.97美元，较前收+0.52%，显示盘后利空未形成持续单边下跌。
关键理由
- 美联航2Q调整EPS为1.99美元，高于预期1.88美元，收入176.7亿美元略高于预期176.1亿美元。
- 负面增量更明确：3Q调整EPS指引2.50-3.50美元低于市场约3.60美元，且燃油成本今年可能较年初预期增加近60亿美元。
- 量级上，60亿美元额外燃油成本约为UAL当前392.6亿美元市值的15%，虽公司称可转嫁80%-100%，但短线盈利不确定性大于财报beat。
主要风险
- 若油价快速回落或票价转嫁超预期，燃油成本利空会被修复。
- 做空需要确认可借券，且当前公司上调全年EPS区间下限，利空不够单边。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-16 · 影响 weakens
3Q EPS指引低于预期且燃油成本压力大，削弱财报beat追多。
检索:United Airlines Q2 2026 fuel costs Q3 guidance below estimates 原文 ↗ - 做空前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-16 · 影响 weakens
公司上调全年EPS区间下限并称Q4可完全转嫁更高燃油成本，削弱做空。
检索:United Airlines raises full year EPS guidance recover fuel costs Q4 2026 原文 ↗
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原文全文
展开原文 · 2,688 字
United Airlines' second-quarter results came in ahead of Wall Street estimates, but billions of dollars in added fuel costs continue to weigh on earnings, the carrier said Wednesday.
Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended June 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.99 adjusted vs. $1.88 expected
- Revenue: $17.67 billion vs. $17.61 billion expected
United forecast third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of between $2.50 and $3.50, compared with analysts' estimates for $3.60 a share. It estimated full-year adjusted earnings per share of between $9 and $11, the higher end of the range of the adjusted $7 to $11 a share it forecast in April, when it cut its January forecast after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
According to Argus data published by industry group Airlines for America, jet fuel prices at major U.S. airports are up 34% in July alone through Tuesday amid a roller coaster of escalating and deescalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Jet fuel is the largest cost for airlines after labor.
United said the higher fuel prices could add nearly $6 billion to its expenses this year compared with what it expected at the start of 2026, and that its second-quarter fuel costs rose 84% from last year to $2.3 billion. Those estimates were made based on Tuesday's fuel prices. It said it would cover up to as much as 90% of its higher costs this quarter and all of it in the fourth quarter.
Rival Delta Air Lines also said it is passing on more of those higher costs to flyers. The airlines said demand has remained strong despite higher fares.
United said it is updating its forecast to include the most recent fuel prices because costs have been so volatile. Since the beginning of July, fuel prices have hit adjusted earnings for the third quarter by $1.12 per share, it said.
The carrier could further cut its capacity plans because of higher fuel costs this year, it said in a filing.
United expanded flying 3.5% second quarter. Its revenue rose 16% from a year earlier to $17.67 billion, with total unit revenue up 12.1% in the second quarter from last year. That was the highest unit revenue growth since early 2023, according to FactSet.
The airline reported higher revenue for premium, corporate and no-frills basic economy tickets, as well as rising unit revenue for both domestic and international trips.
Net income fell more than 17% to $805 million, or $2.46 a share. Adjusting for one-time items United reported $649 million, or $1.99 a share on an adjusted basis.
United executives will hold an earnings call Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Here is what United Airlines reported for the quarter that ended June 30 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.99 adjusted vs. $1.88 expected
- Revenue: $17.67 billion vs. $17.61 billion expected
United forecast third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of between $2.50 and $3.50, compared with analysts' estimates for $3.60 a share. It estimated full-year adjusted earnings per share of between $9 and $11, the higher end of the range of the adjusted $7 to $11 a share it forecast in April, when it cut its January forecast after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
According to Argus data published by industry group Airlines for America, jet fuel prices at major U.S. airports are up 34% in July alone through Tuesday amid a roller coaster of escalating and deescalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Jet fuel is the largest cost for airlines after labor.
United said the higher fuel prices could add nearly $6 billion to its expenses this year compared with what it expected at the start of 2026, and that its second-quarter fuel costs rose 84% from last year to $2.3 billion. Those estimates were made based on Tuesday's fuel prices. It said it would cover up to as much as 90% of its higher costs this quarter and all of it in the fourth quarter.
Rival Delta Air Lines also said it is passing on more of those higher costs to flyers. The airlines said demand has remained strong despite higher fares.
United said it is updating its forecast to include the most recent fuel prices because costs have been so volatile. Since the beginning of July, fuel prices have hit adjusted earnings for the third quarter by $1.12 per share, it said.
The carrier could further cut its capacity plans because of higher fuel costs this year, it said in a filing.
United expanded flying 3.5% second quarter. Its revenue rose 16% from a year earlier to $17.67 billion, with total unit revenue up 12.1% in the second quarter from last year. That was the highest unit revenue growth since early 2023, according to FactSet.
The airline reported higher revenue for premium, corporate and no-frills basic economy tickets, as well as rising unit revenue for both domestic and international trips.
Net income fell more than 17% to $805 million, or $2.46 a share. Adjusting for one-time items United reported $649 million, or $1.99 a share on an adjusted basis.
United executives will hold an earnings call Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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