纽卡斯尔高卡动力煤年内上涨约40%至约150美元/吨，LNG替代需求与印尼、澳洲供给受限共振

TOKYO -- The price of coal for power generation has risen roughly 40% since the start of this year as high natural gas prices drive record demand, even as uncertainty hangs over exports from Indonesia and Australia.
Near-term futures for high-grade Australian thermal coal, and Asian benchmark, are trading around $150 per metric ton after touching roughly $152 per metric ton on Oct. 6, LSEG data shows. Last week's rise matched June's high, which was the most since December 2023.
Thermal coal has been underpinned by the energy supply disruption from the Iran war. Worldwide demand for the fuel this year is on track to set a record at 8.94 billion tons, a 1.2% rise from 2025 levels, according to an International Energy Agency forecast released in September.
With the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz pushing up prices for liquefied natural gas, coal represents a cheaper alternative for India and Pakistan in particular, which are both highly dependent on LNG from the Middle East.
Demand alone cannot explain the price rise, however. Supply is the biggest factor, not demand, according to Mark Gresswell, director of Australian market research firm Commodity Insights.
Exports from Indonesia, one of the world's top coal producers, have stagnated as the government has toughened approval criteria for mining plans and tightened domestic supply obligations. Commodity Insights projects the country's 2026 export volume coming to 450 million tons, down roughly 10% on the year, or less, based on weak export levels last month.
Since 2000, there has been no precedent for exports falling during a year in which coal prices rose more than 20%, Gresswell said. Indonesia has historically been a buffer that increases supply when demand and prices rise. The decline in exports has weakened its supply capacity.
Australia, another big coal exporter, also faces supply uncertainty. Last week, the country's High Court upheld a lower court's decision to invalidate extending the mining period past December at Mount Pleasant Coal Mine in the state of New South Wales, dismissing the operator's appeal. Japan Coal Development, which is backed by Japanese power companies, owns a stake in the mine.
Meanwhile, a mining extension at another coal mine in New South Wales, operated by Glencore and Yancoal Australia, was approved last month by the state's independent planning committee.
"The ruling doesn't immediately stop coal mine development in Australia," said Masataka Furukawa, president at Japanese consulting firm Energy Cross Execute. "But policy and judicial decisions are having an even greater impact than before on the supply outlook for resource exporters, and they warrant attention."
In Japan, there has also been a trend toward using existing thermal power plants, including by temporarily easing restrictions on operating inefficient coal power plants.
"This is a reminder of the usefulness of coal power during emergencies," said Hideaki Kato, CEO of Electric Power Development Co., or J-Power.
"Both generation facilities and fuel supply chains are needed to maintain [power] supply capacity," said Sumiko Takeuchi, a director at the Tokyo-based International Environment and Economy Institute. "Institutional improvements toward maintaining power generation facilities are in progress, but maintaining the supply network that supports fuel procurement is not easy."