韩元2026年波动率创11年新高，年内自1561转强至1321，出口商利润承压、航空进口商受益

The won's volatility against the dollar reached its highest level in 11 years in 2026, the most since 2015, as the currency swung from weakness in the first half of the year to strength in the second. The shift has increased the burden on exporters managing earnings and currency risk.
Between Jan. 8 and Oct. 23, the won traded as weak as 1,561.5 per dollar on June 5 and as strong as 1,321.2 on Oct. 22, according to the Bank of Korea's Economic Statistics System. The 240.3-won gap between the high and the low amounted to a 15.4% decline from the peak.
The average daily trading range was 14.1 won this year, about 22% wider than the 11.6 won recorded last year. Annualized volatility based on intraday highs and lows came to 10.1%, exceeding last year's 8.8% and the 6.9% seen in 2022, and marking the highest level since 2015.
Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said at a news conference following the Monetary Policy Board meeting on Oct. 22 that the elevated exchange rate in early summer had "distinctly abnormal aspects," describing the recent decline as part of a normalization process.
Still, the sharp swings weigh on corporate earnings. Automakers benefit when a weaker won inflates the local-currency value of foreign sales, but profitability can deteriorate when the won strengthens. For Hyundai Motor (005380), a 10-won move in the won-dollar rate is estimated to shift annual operating profit by about 200 billion to 300 billion won.
A foreign exchange market specialist said automaker clients had begun reporting pressure on operating profit as the won firmed into the 1,320 range. Airlines, which settle a large share of costs in dollars, and companies that rely heavily on imported raw materials stand to benefit from lower costs as the won strengthens.
The currency's path from here is expected to hinge on dollar supply and demand tied to semiconductor exports and overseas investment. NH Investment & Securities said strong chip exports would continue to support the won next year, though dollar demand from expanding overseas investment would partly offset that. Ha Jae-seok, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said the likelihood of a sustained sharp appreciation from current levels is limited. Some analysts, however, said pressure for a stronger won could build if export-related dollar inflows increase or the central bank tightens policy more aggressively.