Seoul Economic Daily EnglishCodex · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:韩股▼ 亏 -3.73% · 已结算把握 6/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 15:44:06时区推断·⟳ 抓取 16:21:29·⚡ 决策 07-27 16:25:10 +3m41s·92.1 天前
斗山能源二季度利润显著超预期，订单 backlog 继续扩大
斗山能源（034020.KS）二季度营业利润3143亿韩元，高于KB证券此前2518亿韩元预估约24.8%，也扭转市场此前预期的同比下滑。
📄 原文Seoul Economic Daily English↗ 原文
Doosan Enerbility H1 Operating Profit Jumps 32.4% to 547.8 Billion Won
Doosan Enerbility (034020.KS) posted profit growth in the second quarter this year, driven by the recognition of overse…
▼ 亏 -3.73%入场 07-28 开盘 @68,700 → 离场 07-29 开盘 @66,500
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑财报显著超预期，盘后尚未交易
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +5%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +5%(半仓)/+10%(清仓) · 止损 -5% · 时间止损 3日
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 034020.KS 斗山能源
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 034020.KS 斗山能源
| 收益状态 | -3.73% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-07-28 · 开盘 · @68700 |
| 离场成交 | 2026-07-29 · 开盘 · @66500 |
| 毛收益 | -3.20% |
| 成本 | +0.53% |
| 净收益 | -3.73% |
| 计入收益 | -3.73% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-07-28 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 17:46
研究档案
消息传播链
- Yonhap报道斗山能源二季度净利润2264亿韩元，并明确称净利润高于Yonhap Infomax一致预期614亿韩元。市场反应:事件披露在韩国收盘后，连续竞价已结束。
- Seoul Economic Daily补充上半年营业利润同比增长32.4%、订单和backlog数据，并引用公司对核电、SMR和燃气轮机增长的表述。市场反应:韩国市场已收盘，反应留到下一交易日开盘。
- KB证券四天前下调目标价，预估二季度营业利润2518亿韩元且低于市场共识，构成本次实际3143亿韩元的反向预期基线。市场反应:7月23日前后股价仍在低位区间震荡。
关键理由
- 斗山能源（034020.KS）二季度营业利润3143亿韩元，高于KB证券此前2518亿韩元预估约24.8%，也扭转市场此前预期的同比下滑。
- Yonhap Infomax给出的二季度净利润一致预期约614亿韩元，实际净利润2264亿韩元约为预期3.7倍，属于明确盈利 surprise。
- 公司上半年订单7.1255万亿韩元、6月底订单 backlog 26.3509万亿韩元，约为2025年收入17.06万亿韩元的1.5倍，短期盈利改善叠加核电/燃气轮机订单能见度。
主要风险
- 该股5月以来已从高位明显回落，反映美国AP1000核电设备订单延后，若市场更关注订单延期而非本季盈利 beat，次日可能高开低走。
- 二季度披露为财报日历事件，部分投资者已有预期；未能用Futu/stock_tools取得收盘后权威实时价，入场必须限制追高。
反向证据
- 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-23 · 影响 weakens
KB证券因美国AP1000核电设备订单从2026年延后至2027年而下调目标价，但仍维持买入，并认为燃气轮机需求可填补短期空档。
检索:Doosan Enerbility July 2026 analyst downgrade AP1000 order delay KB Securities target price lowered 原文 ↗ - 做多前查反向 · 来源 web · 日期 2026-07-23 · 影响 weakens
多家韩媒转载同一KB观点，主要反证集中在核电订单延期和WACC上升，未发现直接否定本季盈利改善的新增事实。
检索:Doosan Enerbility 2026 risks delayed AP1000 nuclear equipment orders debt valuation July 2026 原文 ↗
历史先例(按相似度)
- 相似度 8/10 BWXT 2025-02-24 BWX Technologies 4Q24/FY24收入、利润、现金流增长并给出2025增长指引,商业核电设备扩产支撑。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +4.2% · +2日 +6.8% · +3日 +2.2% · +4日 +4.1% · +5日 +1.6%
相似度依据:核电设备链财报/指引向上且订单景气相近,但BWXT客户结构偏美国政府和商业核燃料服务,非韩国重装整机。 - 相似度 8/10 GEV 2025-01-22 GE Vernova 4Q24财报披露record orders 13.2B、收入和利润改善、backlog利润率提升。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +2.5% · +2日 -1.6% · +3日 -22.7% · +4日 -16.9% · +5日 -17.3%
相似度依据:同为电力设备/能源基建龙头,财报超预期叠加record orders/backlog质量改善,但GEV受美国AI电力主题和美股估值扰动更大。 - 相似度 7/10 CW 2025-02-12 Curtiss-Wright 4Q24/FY24 new orders +37%、全年book-to-bill约1.2x、backlog +20%,商业核产品需求稳健。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -1.2% · +2日 -5.5% · +3日 -4.8% · +4日 -1.9% · +5日 -3.4%
相似度依据:商业核产品需求、new orders和backlog上行与斗山核电链条相似,但业务还包含航空防务,纯度较低。 - 相似度 6/10 PWR 2025-02-20 Quanta Services 4Q24 adjusted EPS增长、free cash flow强、总backlog 34.54B且2025指引双位数增长。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -4.2% · +2日 -7.8% · +3日 -6.0% · +4日 -4.4% · +5日 -7.8%
相似度依据:能源/电网基建订单与backlog驱动机制相似,但Quanta是工程服务商而非核电重装制造。 - 相似度 6/10 FLR 2024-08-02 Fluor 2Q24 Urban Solutions利润提升、收入+52%、ending backlog +67%至19.6B。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -2.7% · +2日 -2.1% · +3日 -1.7% · +4日 +3.0% · +5日 +2.3%
相似度依据:大型工程/backlog兑现和利润改善机制相似,但Fluor业务分散且非核电主线。 - 相似度 6/10 CCJ 2025-02-20 Cameco 4Q24 uranium与Westinghouse强劲贡献、adjusted EBITDA大幅提升、长期合同组合扩大。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 -6.6% · +2日 -7.0% · +3日 -6.3% · +4日 -3.9% · +5日 -6.6%
相似度依据:核能景气和Westinghouse贡献与核电产业链相关,但Cameco是铀矿/核燃料链,不是发电设备制造商。 - 相似度 6/10 2727 2025-03-31 上海电气2024年报披露新增订单1536亿元,能源装备订单891亿元,归母净利恢复增长。 原文 ↗
事件后 +1日 +0.4% · +2日 +1.6% · +3日 +1.9% · +4日 -14.0% · +5日 -11.7%
相似度依据:电力装备集团年报利润恢复和新增订单高增长机制相似,但上海电气是中国国企H股且估值/政策环境不同。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,894 字
Doosan Enerbility (034020.KS) posted profit growth in the second quarter this year, driven by the recognition of overseas power project earnings and a strong global nuclear power market.
Doosan Enerbility said on the 27th that its second-quarter operating profit on a consolidated basis rose 15.9% from a year earlier to 314.2 billion won. Revenue for the same period increased 3.4% to 4.7248 trillion won.
On a first-half basis, Doosan Enerbility's operating profit rose 32.4% year-on-year to 547.8 billion won. Revenue increased 8.0% over the same period to 8.9859 trillion won. Net profit came in at 286.6 billion won, up 109.9 billion won from a year earlier.
Doosan Enerbility explained that improved profitability at Enerbility and its subsidiary Doosan Bobcat drove the overall earnings improvement. The Enerbility division's first-half orders totaled 7.1255 trillion won. Major projects included a contract to supply seven gas turbines to a U.S. company, the second phase of the Jafurah cogeneration power plant in Saudi Arabia, construction of the Duqm combined-cycle gas power plant in Oman, and a long-term service agreement for gas turbines with Korea Southern Power. As of the end of June, the order backlog stood at 26.3509 trillion won, up about 2.1 trillion won from the previous quarter.
Doosan Enerbility plans to continue its growth through the full-scale development of large nuclear power and small modular reactor (SMR) businesses, as well as rising gas turbine demand driven by the expansion of the global data center market. "Earnings improved on the back of steady orders in the first half and rising subsidiary performance," a Doosan Enerbility official said. "We will push ahead with major projects including the Czech nuclear power plant as planned and focus on key businesses such as gas turbines to achieve the guidance we presented this year (13.3 trillion won)."
Doosan Enerbility said on the 27th that its second-quarter operating profit on a consolidated basis rose 15.9% from a year earlier to 314.2 billion won. Revenue for the same period increased 3.4% to 4.7248 trillion won.
On a first-half basis, Doosan Enerbility's operating profit rose 32.4% year-on-year to 547.8 billion won. Revenue increased 8.0% over the same period to 8.9859 trillion won. Net profit came in at 286.6 billion won, up 109.9 billion won from a year earlier.
Doosan Enerbility explained that improved profitability at Enerbility and its subsidiary Doosan Bobcat drove the overall earnings improvement. The Enerbility division's first-half orders totaled 7.1255 trillion won. Major projects included a contract to supply seven gas turbines to a U.S. company, the second phase of the Jafurah cogeneration power plant in Saudi Arabia, construction of the Duqm combined-cycle gas power plant in Oman, and a long-term service agreement for gas turbines with Korea Southern Power. As of the end of June, the order backlog stood at 26.3509 trillion won, up about 2.1 trillion won from the previous quarter.
Doosan Enerbility plans to continue its growth through the full-scale development of large nuclear power and small modular reactor (SMR) businesses, as well as rising gas turbine demand driven by the expansion of the global data center market. "Earnings improved on the back of steady orders in the first half and rising subsidiary performance," a Doosan Enerbility official said. "We will push ahead with major projects including the Czech nuclear power plant as planned and focus on key businesses such as gas turbines to achieve the guidance we presented this year (13.3 trillion won)."
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