日经特写质疑富士胶片约1万亿日元生物制药CDMO押注回报，但主要为旧闻回顾与分析师观点，无新增公司级事实

TOKYO -- Japanese technology group Fujifilm Holding is facing questions over whether its 1 trillion yen ($6.31 billion) bet on the biomedical business will pay off.
The biomedical business is part of what could be a third transformation for the company, which started in photographic film and moved to fields that applied the accumulated expertise including advanced materials, as well as office and medical equipment.
However, investors are concerned about the poor performance of Fujifilm's biomedical contract development and manufacturing organization (bio CDMO) business. The company entered this field in 2011 and positioned it as a growth business.
Fujifilm announced in August it would consider a partial spinoff of its business innovation unit, the segment responsible for office printers and a strong revenue generator for the group. The move was a "bold management decision that will significantly advance selection and concentration," said Takumi Nishida, fund manager at Asset Management One.
The semiconductor materials business, another prong of the third transformation, is brisk thanks to demand tied to the spread of generative artificial intelligence. Operating profit for the electronics business segment, which includes semiconductor materials, is projected to jump 24% in the fiscal year that ends in March. This is significantly higher than the 10% increase forecast for groupwide operating profit.
But Fujifilm's stock has underperformed. On Aug. 7, immediately after the announcement of the partial spinoff, Fujifilm's share price plunged 17% to 3,236 yen. Currently, the price hovers just above 3,400 yen, and the price-to-book ratio remains slightly above the undervaluation threshold of 1.
Sales from bio CDMO are projected to reach 280 billion yen this fiscal year, representing less than 10% of total sales. However, Fujifilm anticipates the annual growth rate through fiscal 2030 to average roughly 30%. The company has invested over 1 trillion yen in large-scale facilities and other projects in the U.S. and Europe.
The segment's operating loss this fiscal year is expected to widen from the nearly 40 billion yen previously projected to about 70 billion yen. Early stage development projects have been sluggish for small and midsized facilities. U.S. facilities were temporarily shut down due to regulatory compliance reasons.
Furthermore, the establishment of large U.S. facilities has been delayed, resulting in production volume falling below Fujifilm's plans.
The EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin also is expected to turn negative, down from the mid-single digit percentage. The market has been increasingly doubtful about how Fujifilm will recoup its investment.
In February, Fujifilm pushed back its fiscal 2027 target for achieving positive free cash flow at the bio CDMO business by a year.
"The continued downward revisions to the plans make it difficult to have confidence in the company's growth strategy," said a source at an institutional investor.
Fujifilm's groupwide free cash flow was negative for four consecutive years through fiscal 2025. The ratio of net interest-bearing debt to EBITDA is also at 1.65, the highest ratio in six years.
Fujifilm has expanded capital expenditures. But not only is the company struggling to acquire customers, it is also facing challenges due to delays in developing production infrastructure.
"It's time to consider impairment of small and mid-scale production facilities, where orders continue to stagnate," said Tomoko Yoshihara, analyst at UBS Securities Japan, adding the impairment amount "could be of a considerable size."
Fujifilm's medium- to long-term growth scenario remains unchanged, according to Masayuki Higuchi, the company's chief financial officer. Fujifilm is revamping its production infrastructure, as well as its sales team to secure orders. At the end of September, small and midsized facilities in the U.S. resumed operations following inspections.
Given this context, the spinoff of the business innovation business could narrow the company's financial prospects. The segment is projected to generate 1.2 trillion yen in revenue this fiscal year, up 2%. The business accounts for over 30% of the total.
Although the business innovation segment has faced issues with asset efficiency and profitability, the EBITDA has exceeded capex by tens of billions of yen each year, generating stable cash flow.
"With the increasing likelihood of earnings becoming volatile, the early profitability of bio CDMO is essential for maintaining creditworthiness," said Hideki Matsumoto, senior credit analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities.