新韩证券上调韩美药品目标价至65万韩元，点评HM17321授权Genentech交易将带动肥胖管线整体重估

Hanmi Pharmaceutical's entire obesity drug pipeline is set for a re-rating after the company licensed HM17321, a muscle-preserving obesity drug candidate, to Roche subsidiary Genentech, according to a securities analyst. The deal secured the largest upfront payment ever recorded for a single Korean drug candidate despite the asset being only in Phase 1, raising expectations for additional licensing deals involving follow-on obesity treatments.
Lee Ho-chul, an analyst at Shinhan Securities, said on the 27th that "a re-rating of Hanmi Pharmaceutical's entire obesity pipeline is expected now that global big pharma interest in next-generation obesity treatments has been confirmed." He maintained a buy rating and raised his target price 27.5% to 650,000 won.
Hanmi Pharmaceutical signed an exclusive licensing agreement on the 24th to transfer HM17321 to Genentech. Genentech secures exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize HM17321 worldwide, excluding South Korea. The deal is worth up to $2.305 billion (about 3.2 trillion won), and Hanmi Pharmaceutical will receive a non-refundable upfront payment of $190 million (about 270 billion won). The company will also receive separate royalties following product launch.
HM17321 is a non-incretin UCN2 (urocortin-2) analog developed in-house by Hanmi Pharmaceutical. It is being developed as a potential first-in-class drug that selectively reduces fat mass while improving muscle mass and muscle function, achieving weight loss and muscle preservation simultaneously. The candidate is currently in Phase 1, with Genentech set to lead development from Phase 2 onward.
The market is focused on the size of the upfront payment. At $190 million, or about 8.2% of the total deal value, it is more than double the roughly 4% average upfront ratio for licensing deals from Korean drugmakers to global big pharma. "It is encouraging that the absolute size of the upfront payment is the highest among single-asset licensing deals on record, even at the Phase 1 stage," Lee said.
The upfront payment is expected to be reflected in Hanmi Pharmaceutical's fourth-quarter earnings. Because HM17321 was developed independently by Hanmi Pharmaceutical, the company will receive the full amount without sharing it with holding company Hanmi Science.
Roche's decision to make a large investment in HM17321 at an early clinical stage was seen as driven by an urgent need to secure a differentiated pipeline as a latecomer in the obesity treatment market. "Enisepatide, an injectable GLP-1/GIP drug Roche is developing, and RG6652, a small-molecule oral GLP-1 drug, offer limited differentiation from existing obesity treatments," Lee said. "The need to secure candidates with new mechanisms has grown after RG6237, a myostatin inhibitor being developed for muscle preservation, failed in two Phase 2 trials this year."
As a result, Roche may combine HM17321 with its own obesity treatments to offset its weakness as a latecomer through mechanistic differentiation, according to the analysis. The strategy would pair HM17321's ability to minimize muscle loss or improve muscle mass during weight loss with existing incretin-based obesity treatments.
The licensing deal may also lead to additional out-licensing of Hanmi Pharmaceutical's other obesity drug candidates. Through its H.O.P (Hanmi Obesity Pipeline) project, the company is developing follow-on candidates including HM15275, a triple agonist, and HM-500197, a myostatin inhibitor.
"Global big pharma validation of the H.O.P obesity project has begun," Lee said. "The likelihood of additional licensing deals has also risen for HM15275, which is in global Phase 2 trials, and HM-500197, whose preclinical results were presented at the American Diabetes Association meeting in June this year."
Reflecting the licensing deal, Shinhan Securities valued HM17321 at 1.7 trillion won and raised its assessment of Hanmi Pharmaceutical's total new drug value to 4.9 trillion won. "If Roche enters global Phase 2 trials for HM17321 in 2027, large milestone payments could follow," Lee said.