Axios AI & Machine LearningCodex · 实盘不做把握 2/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 19:20:06时区推断·⟳ 抓取 19:21:58·⚡ 决策 08-04 19:41:35 +19m37s·83.9 天前
Axios称标普500盈利高增被Amazon和Alphabet非经营性持股收益放大
这是一篇指数盈利质量和AI资本开支会计处理的背景分析，不是公司新订单、指引修正或监管事件。
📄 原文Axios AI & Machine Learning↗ 原文
The AI-driven boom in profits comes with some caveats
S&P 500 earnings are growing at some of the fastest rates of the last 30 years. Why it matters: Giant earnings growth s…
不做 SPDR标普500 ETF（SPY.US）
宏观/指数盈利质量背景分析，无法形成对单一标的或ETF的直接、可量化、短周期交易催化，不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-08-04 · 扩散 low · price-in 风险 medium ↗
关键理由
- 这是一篇指数盈利质量和AI资本开支会计处理的背景分析，不是公司新订单、指引修正或监管事件。
- 文中提到Amazon和Alphabet对标普500盈利贡献较大，但核心信息是已披露财报后的指数口径解释，缺少新的公司级可交易增量。
主要风险
- 若后续出现公司正式下调AI资本开支回报预期或会计处理监管动作，需按新事件重新研判。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,136 字
S&P 500 earnings are growing at some of the fastest rates of the last 30 years.
Why it matters: Giant earnings growth should reassure investors that the AI boom is more than a speculative mania. It's actually producing profits!
Yes, but: A couple of features of the current AI-driven boom are skewing the numbers and are likely overstating just how profitable things are.
By the numbers: With results from about 62% of S&P 500 companies in hand, earnings per share for the index is roughly 47% higher than last year, according to FactSet data.
Context: That's impressive. The only time we typically see growth like that is in the aftermath of severe recessions.
Reality check: So far, the top contributors to the S&P 500's massive quarter are hyperscalers Amazon and Alphabet, according to FactSet data.
Caveat: Those insane gains, however, were largely the result of large, non-operating, unrealized gains on equity stakes these companies hold in other tech companies.
State of play: Some analysts have felt the need to strip out earnings from these giants to get a better sense of the underlying trend for earnings, which — it should be said — is still strong.
What they're saying: "Excluding Alphabet and Amazon.com, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2026 would fall to 28.8% from 47.4%. However, this would still mark the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 20% and the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index," FactSet analyst John Butters wrote.
The intrigue: There is another element to keep in mind when contemplating the profitability of the blue chips.
Zoom in: Most spending that companies do, say on wages for employees, is deducted from sales, as costs or expenses. The company's profit is what remains.
TL;DR: In the aggregate, this dynamic can temporarily overstate how profitable the system is, because the bill for all that spending isn't being tallied up as quickly as the profits that spending is generating for vendors.
The bottom line: At first glance, this seems like a golden age of profits for corporate America. And things are pretty good.
Why it matters: Giant earnings growth should reassure investors that the AI boom is more than a speculative mania. It's actually producing profits!
Yes, but: A couple of features of the current AI-driven boom are skewing the numbers and are likely overstating just how profitable things are.
By the numbers: With results from about 62% of S&P 500 companies in hand, earnings per share for the index is roughly 47% higher than last year, according to FactSet data.
Context: That's impressive. The only time we typically see growth like that is in the aftermath of severe recessions.
Reality check: So far, the top contributors to the S&P 500's massive quarter are hyperscalers Amazon and Alphabet, according to FactSet data.
Caveat: Those insane gains, however, were largely the result of large, non-operating, unrealized gains on equity stakes these companies hold in other tech companies.
State of play: Some analysts have felt the need to strip out earnings from these giants to get a better sense of the underlying trend for earnings, which — it should be said — is still strong.
What they're saying: "Excluding Alphabet and Amazon.com, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 2026 would fall to 28.8% from 47.4%. However, this would still mark the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 20% and the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index," FactSet analyst John Butters wrote.
The intrigue: There is another element to keep in mind when contemplating the profitability of the blue chips.
Zoom in: Most spending that companies do, say on wages for employees, is deducted from sales, as costs or expenses. The company's profit is what remains.
TL;DR: In the aggregate, this dynamic can temporarily overstate how profitable the system is, because the bill for all that spending isn't being tallied up as quickly as the profits that spending is generating for vendors.
The bottom line: At first glance, this seems like a golden age of profits for corporate America. And things are pretty good.
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