杰富瑞下调达能评级、上调雀巢评级，理由是达能中国营养品与北美乳制品动能走弱、雀巢咖啡和宠物护理改善

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Investing.com -- Jefferies downgraded Danone to Underperform from Buy and cut its price target to €62 from €80, citing mounting concerns over China nutrition growth and slowing momentum in North American dairy.
The brokerage said the next six to 12 months will be shaped by the balance between a China Nutrition slowdown and a NORAM Dairy acceleration, which together account for 30% of sales but more than half of first-quarter 2026 like-for-like growth.
Jefferies said its September 2025 upgrade had rested on the assumption that resolving capacity constraints would drive faster growth in yogurt, but "despite steady additions of capacity, Nielsen data shows no corresponding recovery."
Over the past year, the yogurt category grew about 11% while Danone contracted 2%, with Chobani gaining 270 basis points of share as Danone lost roughly 350 basis points. Jefferies cut its forecast for North American yogurt organic growth to an average of 3.2%, from 4.2% previously.
In China, Jefferies pointed to Aptamil’s online market share falling 280 basis points year-on-year in the second quarter as domestic rivals Biostime and Friesland Campina gained ground, while pricing in medical nutrition is being compressed by provincial procurement policies.
The broker cut its two-year average China Specialised Nutrition growth forecast to 6.4% from 7.3%, and lowered fiscal 2026 (FY26), FY27, and FY28 EPS estimates by 2%, 7% and 9%, respectively.
The new price target implies a "de-rate to <14.5x NTM P/E vs ~18x today,” analysts led by David Hayes said.
Separately, Jefferies upgraded Nestle to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to 99 from 84 Swiss francs, arguing that the effects of resource allocation missteps dating back to 2022 are fading.
Hayes said Nestle had been "reluctant to concede" that 2020/21 volume growth was inflated by pandemic-era demand, and the resulting overinvestment in volume/mix led to pricing under-recovery and cuts to brand spending that weighed on 2024/25 results.
He noted momentum is now improving in coffee and petcare, with petcare demand inflecting as wet-cat capacity comes online and the pandemic-era dog adoption boom fades, while coffee volume/mix beat expectations in the first quarter.
The analyst also cited a reset in Nestle’s 2025 margin ambition to 16%, calling it a move that "released ~CHF2.2bn of flex," and pointed to a gradual monetization of Nestle’s remaining 20% L’Oreal stake as a potential funding source for further acquisitions.