Barclays下调Travis Perkins评级至减持并将目标价砍至463便士

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Investing.com -- Barclays cut its rating on Travis Perkins (LON:TPK) to “underweight” from “overweight” and slashed its price target to 463 pence from 850 pence, warning the stock could de-rate into earnings downgrades as weaker UK housing demand exposes the building materials group to renewed margin pressure.
The broker said it now worries that weaker market conditions will make 2026 another year of aggressive price competition in the specialist merchanting space.
Barclays said gross margins could come under competitive pressure again, a risk it believes is increasing, as this has occurred in the past against a backdrop of weak market volumes and increased materials inflation, conditions it expects for the second half of the year.
Barclays said the market may become increasingly worried that the decline in Travis Perkins’ merchanting operating margin, from 7.8% underlying in 2023 to 3.3% in 2025, has been more competition-driven and structural rather than cyclical. The broker said this could result in the stock further de-rating into possible earnings downgrades.
Barclays’ new 2026 pre-tax profit estimate for Travis Perkins is 6% below current Bloomberg consensus. The analysts said the stock currently trades on 22 times current-year earnings, above its last three peaks of about 18 to 20 times.
The lower price target of 463 pence was driven largely by Barclays’ reduced terminal merchanting margin estimate, cut to 3.4% from 6%.
The new target implies 16% potential downside from current levels and still represents a current-year price-to-earnings multiple of 18 times, in line with recent peaks and above the long-term average of 12 times, Barclays said.
Barclays said Travis Perkins’ next potential catalyst is risk to consensus earnings at first-half results on Aug. 4.
The analysts kept its “overweight” ratings on Howden Joinery and Breedon Group, citing market share gains and M&A-driven growth.
Barclays lowered its Breedon Group price target to 380 pence from 450 pence, driven by an increase in its WACC assumption to 8.9% from 8.3%. It kept its Howden Joinery price target unchanged at 980 pence.