Investing.com预览半导体设备财报季，KLAC、TER、LRCX、AMAT将陆续公布业绩

Wall Street mixed as investors eye tech earnings for AI cues, led by Alphabet
Investing.com -- The Semicap sector is set to deliver what could be its defining earnings season moment — S&P 500 semiconductor equipment earnings are forecast to surge +133% in Q2 2026, contributing roughly 44% of all S&P 500 earnings growth this period. The catch? The SOX index already ran +65% YTD before dropping 18% from its late-June all-time high — meaning these stocks must now earn their premium multiples all over again. With KLAC and TER reporting Jul 28, LRCX on Jul 29, and AMAT on Aug 13, the verdict is about to arrive fast.
The Earnings Gauntlet
| Stock | Report Date | EPS Est | Rev Est | Beat Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLA Corp (KLAC) | Jul 28 AH | $1.00 | $3.60B | 4 of 4 ✅ |
| Teradyne (TER) | Jul 28 AH | $2.06 | $1.22B | 4 of 4 ✅ |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | Jul 29 AH | $1.68 | $6.65B | 4 of 4 ✅ |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | Aug 13 AH | $3.40 | $8.98B | 4 of 4 ✅ |
| ASML (ASML) | ✅ Already Reported | Beat +9.6% | $10.67B | 4 of 4 ✅ |
Every name in this cohort has beaten all four consecutive quarters — the base rate for upside surprises is unusually high. But as Wolfe Research cautioned, elevated investor expectations create fewer near-term catalysts even with raised estimates.
Valuation vs. Momentum Reality Check
| Stock | Price | PE (Fwd) | Rev Growth | GP Margin | ROIC | Analyst Upside | Fair Value Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML (ASML) | $1,789 | 46.4x | +9.8% | 52.7% | 46.6% | +27.2% | -15.4% |
| Applied Materials (AMAT) | $557 | 45.9x | +3.3% | 49.0% | 26.3% | +14.6% | -23.1% |
| Lam Research (LRCX) | $317 | 56.2x | +26.5% | 50.0% | 46.7% | +18.0% | -30.3% |
| KLA Corp (KLAC) | $215 | 55.6x | +13.4% | 61.4% | 44.0% | +4.6% | -33.3% |
| Teradyne (TER) | $370 | 51.2x | +30.3% | 58.7% | 29.4% | +19.2% | -29.0% |
The universal truth: Every single name trades above InvestingPro’s Fair Value. This is a sector priced for perfection — execution risk is elevated.
Stock-by-Stock Read
ASML — Already Delivered. Reported Q2 on Jul 15: EPS $8.68 vs. $7.92 est (+9.6% surprise), revenue $10.67B vs. $10.24B est. EPS consensus has been revised +24.2% in just 7 days post-results. Highest analyst target upside at +27.2%. The EUV monopoly remains unassailable — WFE estimates for 2027-2028 point to structurally higher demand.
AMAT — Wolfe’s Top Pick. Wolfe Research singled out Applied Materials (AMAT) as its #1 Semicap pick, citing DRAM exposure and relative valuation trading at 25x base-case 2028 EPS. With 4 consecutive beats averaging ~5-7% EPS surprise and FY2026 EPS estimated at $12.27 (vs $9.42 in FY2025), the growth slope is steep. Citi named it a Top Buy in June 2026. Read more
LRCX — The Growth Engine. The fastest-growing large-cap Semicap with +26.5% TTM revenue growth and a Piotroski Score of 9 (perfect). ROIC of 46.7% is best-in-class for pure WFE exposure. Reports Jul 29 with EPS est $1.68 vs $1.47 last quarter — the bar implies a +14% sequential EPS jump. Previous beats of 8.9% and 9.5% provide comfort.
KLAC — Margin Royalty, but Bar is Low. Best gross margins in the group at 61.4% and market-share gains in process control/inspection. However, analyst consensus upside is a tepid +4.6% — the market has already priced in the story aggressively. Back-to-back post-earnings price drops (-12.3% in Jan, -3.2% in Apr) signal a "sell the news" dynamic to watch.
TER — The Wild Card. The most volatile setup: Q1 2026 saw a jaw-dropping +23% EPS beat paired with a -23.8% stock collapse — guidance disappointed. Reports Jul 28 with EPS est $2.06 (vs $2.56 beat last quarter — a sequential decline built in). If guidance re-accelerates on AI test demand, this could be the biggest upside mover. If it doesn’t, history suggests pain.
The Big Picture
Wolfe raised 2027 WFE to $185B and 2028 to $225B (22% YoY growth), noting industry supply constraints will continue into 2028, meaning 2028 WFE may not be the peak. That structural tailwind supports every name above. But with the SOX down 18% from its June high, the market is actively pressure-testing whether these multiples (45–60x forward PE) can survive any guidance hiccup.
Bull frame: Consecutive beats, massive upward estimate revisions (AMAT EPS +32% in 1 year, LRCX +56%, TER +76%), and secular WFE ramp = numbers will keep coming in above bar.
Bear frame: All trade significantly above Fair Value, the sector has already doubled, and "buy the rumor" dynamics historically punish even strong prints when expectations are stretched (see ASML’s muted +0.52% reaction on a 9.6% EPS beat).
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