Investing.com标题错配，正文实际为BofA上调Tesco评级与目标价

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Investing.com -- Bank of America on Thursday upgraded Tesco to Buy from Neutral and raised its price objective to 540 pence from 490 pence, arguing that investors are focused on near-term trading pressures while overlooking an improving returns story.
Analyst Xavier Le Mene said Tesco now generates a return on invested capital of 10.8%, comfortably above an estimated 8.5% cost of capital, making it "the only major U.K. grocer generating meaningful economic value."
BofA raised its earnings forecasts, lifting fiscal year 2027 (FY27) EPS estimates by 1.4%, FY28 by 4.6% and FY29 by 7.6%, citing greater confidence that Tesco can sustain market share gains and improve asset productivity without needing higher margins.
Near-term conditions remain challenging, Le Mene said. U.K. consumer spending power has been roughly flat year-on-year, and Tesco faces tough market-share comparisons through September against a period last year when it benefited from weather-driven demand and competitor disruption from cyberattacks.
He expects reported market share gains to turn "modestly negative" year-on-year over the summer, but sees this as a comparison effect rather than a sign of competitive weakness.
Le Mene argues that U.K. grocery consolidation is effectively blocked by regulation, following the Competition and Markets Authority’s (CMA) rejection of the proposed Sainsbury’s-Asda merger, which locks in a more fragmented market where scale leaders such as Tesco are best placed to keep gaining share from structurally weaker rivals Asda and Morrisons.
The analyst also pointed to Tesco’s data and technology assets — Clubcard, dunnhumby and its retail media platform — as an increasingly important, high-margin, capital-light source of earnings, alongside continued investment in automation and warehouse robotics.
He does not expect meaningful margin expansion, with retail margins seen rising only from about 4.3% to 4.4%, but sees returns improving through higher volumes and disciplined capital spending of roughly £1.6 billion a year.
On cash returns, Le Mene noted Tesco generated almost £2 billion of free cash flow in FY26 and has returned more than £4 billion via buybacks since FY22, with a further £750 million planned for FY27, implying a total shareholder yield of 5.7%. He also flagged that a potential disposal of Tesco’s Central European operations could be "the final simplification step" in its portfolio, potentially funding additional buybacks.
"While Tesco deserves a premium to European food retail peers, it still trades at a discount to global retail leaders despite similar growth, cash generation and returns on capital, leaving scope for rerating," Le Mene concluded.