巴克莱更新欧洲保险股观点，上调Ageas目标价并维持Swiss Re低配

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Investing.com -- Barclays kept its Neutral stance on the European insurance sector, saying steady underlying operating trends, benign catastrophe losses and supportive markets should underpin headline earnings, while highlighting Ageas, AXA, MAPFRE and Swiss Re as its key focus stocks heading into results.
The broker sees higher cash remittances supporting shareholder returns at Ageas, believes AXA’s valuation remains undemanding, warns MAPFRE’s premium growth trajectory could make its targets harder to achieve, and expects Swiss Re could disappoint if reinsurance price declines accelerate.
Ageas
Barclays reiterated “overweight” on Ageas and raised its price target to €73 from €66.5 after increasing its 2026-2028 estimates by about 5% on average.
The broker expects higher cash remittances to provide upside to 2026 shareholder returns and forecasts first-half net operating profit of €757 million, supported by the consolidation of AG in Belgium, the full integration of esure and Saga in Europe, stronger life capital gains and materially higher China dividends.
It expects these positives to be partly offset by weather-related claims, while forecasting the solvency ratio to decline to 197% from about 211% at end-2025 because of the Taiping Pension closure, debt grandfathering, the Belgium downgrade and mark-to-market effects.
AXA
Barclays maintained an “overweight” rating and a €47.5 price target on AXA, arguing the insurer offers an undemanding valuation and consensus expectations while expecting the stock to re-rate.
The broker said AXA’s higher property-and-casualty weighting and well-defined capital management policy should help its market-implied cost of equity converge with peers over time.
Its base-case forecasts assume underlying post-tax earnings rise to €8.9 billion in 2026 from €8.4 billion in 2025, with property-and-casualty underlying earnings increasing to €6.3 billion, while it sees upside if loss ratios improve and downside if property-and-casualty profitability deteriorates.
MAPFRE
Barclays kept “equal weight” on MAPFRE with a €3.78 price target, saying a softer gross written premium trajectory could make the insurer’s growth targets difficult to achieve.
The broker expects improving motor insurance margins in Iberia as price increases accelerate and profitability recovers, but said the company’s collection of businesses does not generate a sufficiently high return on equity to compensate for operational and currency risks across multiple jurisdictions, leaving limited upside to its target price.
Swiss Re
Barclays maintained an “underweight” rating on Swiss Re and raised its price target to 116 Swiss francs from 113 francs, warning that accelerating blended reinsurance price declines at the July 1 renewals could disappoint investors.
More broadly, the broker expects reinsurers to benefit from a benign catastrophe environment, with first-half large losses running 40%-50% below historical averages, but believes major European reinsurers are more likely to use that earnings tailwind to strengthen reserve buffers rather than increase capital returns.
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