América Móvil二季度业绩解读显示运营改善但EPS大幅低于预期

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Introduction & Market Context
América Móvil (NYSE:AMX) presented its second quarter 2026 results on July 22, with CFO Carlos García Moreno highlighting operational improvements that drove EBITDA growth ahead of revenue expansion. The presentation emphasized strong subscriber additions in mobile postpaid and fixed broadband, along with improving financial metrics including a declining leverage ratio.
While the company’s slides showcased solid operational momentum, actual results revealed a more nuanced picture. Revenue of MxP 241.07 billion slightly exceeded analyst estimates, but earnings per share came in significantly below expectations at $0.02 versus a forecast of $0.4264, with financing costs and currency effects weighing on the bottom line. The stock traded at $26.09, down 0.5% following the release, remaining near the upper end of its 52-week range of $17.80 to $28.46.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
The company’s presentation centered on a key operational achievement: EBITDA growing faster than service revenue, demonstrating improved operating leverage. As illustrated in the following chart comparing service revenue and EBITDA growth trends, EBITDA growth reached 6.7% at constant exchange rates (excluding one-off items) in Q2 2026, while service revenue growth stood at 5.1%.
Net income totaled MxP 24.3 billion in the quarter, representing a 9.2% increase from the year-earlier period. The company’s net income composition showed EBITDA of MxP 96 billion (up 3.8%), depreciation and amortization of MxP 44 billion (down 2.2%), resulting in operating profit of MxP 52 billion (up 9.5%). Comprehensive financing costs increased 34.8% to MxP 10 billion, while taxes and other items totaled MxP 17 billion.
Subscriber Growth Momentum
Mobile postpaid and fixed broadband accesses emerged as the primary growth drivers for América Móvil’s customer base. The following chart demonstrates the acceleration in both segments, with postpaid access growth reaching 9.1% year-over-year and broadband access growth climbing to 6.1% in Q2 2026.
The mobile business showed divergent trends between prepaid and postpaid segments. While postpaid revenue growth moderated to 7.2% from approximately 9.5% a year earlier, prepaid revenue growth accelerated significantly to 5.3% from around 3.0%, as shown in the business line breakdown below. This prepaid acceleration helped offset the postpaid deceleration and supported overall mobile service revenue growth of 6.5%.
Fixed-line service revenue demonstrated notable acceleration, improving from 1.7% growth in Q1 2026 to 2.7% in Q2 2026. The following chart illustrates the steady pace of mobile revenue growth alongside the improving fixed-line performance.
Geographic and Product Performance
Mexico, Colombia, and the Central American region (CENAM) stood out as top performers in mobile revenue growth. The geographic breakdown reveals Colombia’s mobile service revenue growth accelerated to 10.5%, while CENAM maintained strong momentum at 13.0% growth in Q2 2026.
Within the fixed-line business, broadband and pay TV services drove the acceleration in revenue growth. Broadband revenue growth reached 5.4%, while pay TV growth climbed to 4.6% in the quarter. Corporate networks revenue also recovered, posting 4.0% growth after experiencing weakness in prior quarters.
Regional broadband performance highlighted particularly strong residential demand in select markets. As illustrated in the country-specific breakdown below, Ecuador led with 14.4% growth, followed closely by Central America at 14.1%. Peru posted solid 8.0% growth, while Mexico and Brazil showed more modest gains at approximately 4% and 2.3%, respectively.
Cash Flow and Financial Health
América Móvil generated strong operating cash flow of MxP 91.1 billion in the first half of 2026, which covered capital expenditures of MxP 48.1 billion and resulted in free cash flow of MxP 43.0 billion, as shown in the following breakdown.
The company deployed its free cash flow toward multiple priorities, including MxP 4.6 billion in share buybacks, MxP 8.4 billion for labor obligations, and net dividend income of MxP 1.1 billion. These activities, combined with the strong cash generation, enabled a net debt reduction of MxP 30.9 billion during the first half of the year.
The debt reduction contributed to a continued improvement in América Móvil’s leverage ratio, which declined to 1.31 times last-twelve-months EBITDA (excluding leases) in Q2 2026 from 1.57 times a year earlier. This steady deleveraging trend positions the company well within its stated target range of 1.2 to 1.5 times.
Challenges and Market Reality
While the presentation highlighted operational strengths, the actual earnings results revealed headwinds not fully captured in the slides. The significant earnings per share miss—95.3% below analyst estimates—reflected the impact of currency fluctuations, elevated financing costs, and a regulatory fine in Mexico. According to the earnings call, competitive pressure in Brazil from rivals TIM and Vivo remained intense, with management expecting improvement only in the third and fourth quarters as promotional activity eases.
CEO Daniel Hajj acknowledged the competitive dynamics during the earnings call, stating: "If promotions and our competitors are more aggressive, we need to be a little bit more aggressive." This contrasts with the presentation’s emphasis on steady growth trends without highlighting market pressures.
The company maintained its annual capital spending target at approximately $7 billion, noting that dollar weakness makes the program more expensive in dollar terms. Management also emphasized its commitment to maintaining leverage between 1.2 and 1.5 times EBITDA while pursuing fiber-based acquisitions, including pending deals for WOW in Peru and Desktop.
Forward-Looking Considerations
América Móvil’s Q2 2026 presentation showcased genuine operational improvements, particularly in operating leverage, subscriber additions, and balance sheet strength. The company’s ability to grow EBITDA faster than revenue through cost control, combined with strong postpaid and broadband momentum, demonstrates underlying business health.
However, investors must balance these operational achievements against bottom-line pressures from financing costs, currency volatility, and competitive dynamics in key markets like Brazil. The muted 0.5% stock decline following results suggests the market is weighing both factors carefully. With shares trading at a P/E ratio of 15.68 and delivering 57% returns over the past year, the company maintains investor confidence despite near-term earnings volatility.
Management’s focus on network quality—particularly its 5G leadership across Latin America—and disciplined capital allocation through acquisitions, dividends, and buybacks provides a foundation for continued growth. The key question remains whether operational momentum can translate to improved bottom-line performance as competitive pressures ease and financing costs stabilize in the second half of 2026.
Full presentation:
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