标普将 Lennar 信用展望由正面下调至稳定，评级维持 BBB

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Investing.com - S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) to stable from positive today and affirmed all ratings, including the BBB issuer credit rating, citing declining revenue and compressed margins as the Miami-based homebuilder navigates a cyclical downturn stemming from affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates.
For the six months ended May 31, 2026, Lennar’s core homebuilding segment generated revenue of $13.9 billion, an 8% decline from $15.0 billion in the prior-year period, largely due to a 6% decrease in average sales price to $371,000. The company’s homebuilding gross profit margins fell to approximately 15.4% over this period from 18.2% for the six months ended May 31, 2025. Lennar’s inability to improve gross margins back above 20% was one of the triggers for the outlook revision.
As of May 2026, Lennar’s debt to EBITDA was 1.7x, its FFO to debt was about 29% and its EBITDA interest coverage stood at 11.6x. S&P Global views this downward trend in credit metrics as a direct consequence of Lennar’s decision to defend delivery volumes, which dropped by a modest 2% to 37,382 homes for the first half of fiscal 2026 amid weak consumer sentiment. The ratings firm expects the company will continue to face margin pressures over the near term, causing EBITDA margins to settle in the 7%-8% range in 2026 before gradually normalizing to the 9% area in 2027 and 2028 as market conditions stabilize.
The stable outlook reflects S&P Global’s expectation that Lennar will maintain adjusted debt to EBITDA of less than 2x, FFO to debt of between 45% and 50%, EBITDA interest coverage in the 8x-12x range, and debt to capital of below 20% over the next 24 months. Although the company’s leverage has increased, with net debt to EBITDA rising to 1.7x as of May 2026 from 0.9x as of Nov. 30, 2025, it remains within acceptable range for the current rating.
S&P Global could lower its rating on Lennar if leverage rises significantly above 2x on a sustained basis, which could occur if the company’s operating performance continues to deteriorate such that 2027 gross margins decline by more than 200 basis points relative to forecast or it adopts a more aggressive financial policy. The company’s credit strength is anchored by its disciplined leverage approach and $4.7 billion liquidity position.
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