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Introduction & Market Context
S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) presented its second-quarter 2026 results on July 28, showcasing what management described as "very strong performance" with 11% revenue growth. However, the presentation’s optimistic tone contrasted sharply with market reality, as actual earnings fell significantly short of Wall Street expectations, sending shares down 5.2% to $416.94 in premarket trading.
The company’s quarterly update highlighted robust performance across its benchmark businesses—Ratings, Indices, and the Platts energy franchise—which collectively account for approximately 65% of revenue and 80% of operating profit. Yet while revenue of $4.15 billion exceeded the $4.09 billion consensus estimate, adjusted earnings per share of $4.08 missed the $4.75 forecast by 14.1%, overshadowing the revenue beat.
The presentation came just after S&P Global completed the July 1 spin-off of Mobility Global, streamlining its structure to focus on four core divisions: Ratings, Indices, Energy, and Market Intelligence.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
According to the company’s presentation materials, S&P Global reported strong top-line momentum in the second quarter. The following chart illustrates the key financial and operational highlights from the period.
Revenue increased 11% on both a pro forma and organic constant currency basis, with benchmark products growing 15% and recurring revenue advancing 8%. Adjusted operating profit rose 15% year-over-year, while adjusted operating margin expanded by 200 basis points to 54.3%. The company also reported adjusted diluted EPS growth of 23% year-over-year in its presentation.
However, the actual reported adjusted diluted EPS of $4.08 represented a significant shortfall from analyst expectations, despite the strong year-over-year growth rate. This disconnect between presentation metrics and market expectations proved costly for shareholders.
The company announced it now expects to repurchase more than $7 billion in shares during 2026, up from previous targets, demonstrating confidence in cash generation despite the earnings miss.
Benchmark Business Dominance
S&P Global’s presentation emphasized its identity as fundamentally a benchmarks company. The following breakdown illustrates how benchmark products drive the company’s financial profile.
The data shows benchmark products—comprising S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices, the Platts business within Energy, and Ratings-related content in Market Intelligence—generated approximately 65% of the company’s $14.3 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. More significantly, these benchmark franchises contributed roughly 80% of the $7.5 billion in adjusted operating profit, underscoring their superior margin profile.
This concentration in high-margin benchmark businesses has historically provided S&P Global with pricing power and resilient cash flows, even as the company works to diversify its revenue streams through data and analytics offerings.
Ratings Division: Issuance Surge
The Ratings division delivered particularly strong performance in the quarter, benefiting from robust debt issuance activity. The following chart details the billed issuance trends across different market segments.
Total billed issuance increased 25% year-over-year to $1,268 billion in the second quarter. Investment grade issuance jumped 27% to $560 billion, driven primarily by large transactions to finance AI infrastructure expansion and strong merger and acquisition activity. High-yield issuance grew 15% to $169 billion, while structured finance and other categories increased 25% to $539 billion.
Management noted that hyperscaler-related billed issuance reached $169 billion in the first half of 2026, already exceeding full-year estimates. This AI infrastructure boom has become a significant driver of debt market activity.
The company’s presentation detailed Ratings division financial performance showing revenue growth of 17% to $1,339 million and adjusted operating margin expansion to 68.5%.
Despite some concerns about pull-forward of issuance, debt maturity walls remain robust. Management updated full-year guidance to assume mid-to-high single-digit billed issuance growth for 2026, incorporating the increased AI infrastructure-related activity.
Indices: ETF Growth Momentum
S&P Dow Jones Indices extended its global leadership position, with particularly strong growth in exchange-traded fund assets under management. The following chart illustrates the ETF AUM trajectory.
Quarter-ending ETF AUM associated with S&P Dow Jones Indices reached $6,350 billion, representing 34% growth compared to the second quarter of 2025. The increase comprised $1,010 billion from price appreciation and $605 billion from net inflows, demonstrating both market performance and investor preference for S&P index products.
A significant milestone occurred in June when a single ETF based on the S&P 500 reached $1 trillion in AUM for the first time. The company maintained its position as the number one global provider of indices based on ETF-linked AUM and ranked first in flow capture during the quarter.
Exchange-traded derivatives volumes grew 19% year-over-year, with related revenue increasing 22%, as market volatility drove demand for hedging instruments. The Indices division posted 20% revenue growth to $534 million and maintained a 71.5% adjusted operating margin.
AI Initiatives and Technology Progress
S&P Global’s presentation highlighted significant progress in artificial intelligence initiatives, positioning AI as a key driver of future growth. The following metrics demonstrate the adoption trajectory.
The company reported that Market Intelligence clients using AI products showed 1.6 times higher annualized contract value growth compared to non-AI clients, while Energy AI clients demonstrated 3.0 times higher growth. API call volume surged 5.4 times compared to the first quarter, and the company now has more than 500 active and trialing LLM-Ready API customers.
Management indicated that approximately 60% of the $100 million expense discipline and optimization (EDO) 2027 savings program has been achieved, with AI-driven productivity gains contributing to the progress.
However, the presentation also noted evolving customer behavior, with clients increasingly focused on "token expense" and demanding higher return on investment expectations for AI tools. Some customers are seeking to build in-house solutions using S&P Global data, potentially reducing reliance on third-party platforms.
Detailed Financial Analysis
The company’s presentation provided comprehensive financial results across all divisions. The following chart shows the consolidated enterprise performance.
Total revenue reached $3,678 million in the second quarter according to the presentation, representing 11% growth with strong contributions across all divisions. Adjusted operating profit increased 15% to $1,998 million, while adjusted expenses rose just 6% to $1,681 million, demonstrating operating leverage.
The adjusted operating margin expanded from 52.3% to 54.3%, with margin improvement even more pronounced when excluding OSTTRA contributions. This margin expansion reflects both revenue growth in high-margin benchmark businesses and expense discipline initiatives.
By division, Market Intelligence posted 6% revenue growth to $1,235 million with margin expansion to 36.0%, while Energy grew 3% to $623 million with a 47.5% margin. The slower Energy growth reflected geopolitical pressures, sanctions uncertainty, and commodity price volatility that affected customer renewal rates and usage-based revenue.
Forward-Looking Guidance
Despite the second-quarter earnings miss, S&P Global maintained its full-year guidance ranges in the presentation, expressing confidence in the underlying business momentum. The following chart details the updated financial outlook.
The company expects organic constant currency revenue growth of 6% to 8% for the full year 2026, with adjusted operating margin expansion of 75 to 100 basis points excluding OSTTRA. Adjusted diluted earnings per share are projected in the range of $17.50 to $17.75, representing 10% to 12% year-over-year growth.
At the division level, management raised guidance for both Ratings and Indices. Ratings organic constant currency revenue growth was increased to 5% to 8% from the prior 4% to 7% range, while Indices guidance rose to 12% to 14% from 10% to 12%. Energy and Market Intelligence guidance remained unchanged at 4.5% to 6% and 5.5% to 7%, respectively.
The company also announced plans to repurchase more than $7 billion of stock in 2026, representing more than 5% of its market capitalization at current prices. Management indicated it expects to issue approximately $2 billion of debt in the second half to support the enhanced buyback program, with gross leverage rising to 2.7x to 2.8x EBITDA by year-end before declining in 2027.
Strategic Positioning Post-Mobility Spin
The completion of the Mobility Global spin-off on July 1 marked a significant strategic milestone, allowing S&P Global to sharpen its focus on four core divisions. The company also consolidated supply chain products within the Energy division and established a new leadership and operating model for Market Intelligence.
Management emphasized three strategic pillars going forward: advancing market leadership in benchmarks through continued investment; expanding high-growth adjacencies with focused investment in strategic initiatives while optimizing Market Intelligence for more agile and profitable growth; and amplifying enterprise capabilities through AI, particularly by bringing the full data estate to market responsibly through Kensho Data.
The company announced two acquisitions in July—datacenterHawk and Agusto & Company—signaling continued portfolio optimization to support growth in high-priority areas such as data center infrastructure and emerging markets.
Market Challenges and Risk Factors
While the presentation highlighted numerous positive developments, actual results revealed execution challenges. The significant earnings miss relative to expectations raised questions about margin timing, business mix, or expense control that were not fully addressed in the prepared materials.
Energy division performance faces near-term headwinds from extreme commodity price volatility, the Iran conflict, and sanctions-related uncertainty affecting Global Trading Services and customer renewals. Management expects these pressures to be temporary, with growth normalizing after 2026.
The increased leverage target to support the expanded buyback program, while demonstrating confidence, also reduces financial flexibility. Additionally, some mature or subscale products within Market Intelligence continue to face growth challenges, prompting management to consider strategic options if performance does not improve.
Customer behavior around AI investments is evolving, with increased focus on return on investment and some movement toward in-house solutions, which could affect the monetization trajectory of S&P Global’s AI initiatives.
Trading at $417.87 following the earnings release, S&P Global shares sit approximately 27.9% below the 52-week high of $579.05, reflecting investor concerns about the path to meeting elevated expectations despite the company’s strong market position and benchmark business franchise.
Full presentation:
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