ING二季度业绩强劲并上调2026、2027年展望

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Introduction & Market Context
ING Groep (NYSE:ING) presented its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026, showcasing accelerated growth across its customer base and strengthening profitability that enabled the Dutch banking group to raise its full-year and 2027 outlook. The presentation highlighted the success of the bank’s "Growing the Difference" strategy, which has driven compound annual growth rates significantly above pre-2024 levels across lending, deposits, and fee income.
The bank’s shares rose 3.54% in premarket trading to $33.66, approaching the upper end of its 52-week range of $22.54 to $33.60, as investors responded positively to both the quarterly beat and improved forward guidance.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
ING’s second-quarter results demonstrated broad-based strength across key financial metrics. The bank reported strong customer activity driving profitability improvements, with return on tangible equity reaching 14.5%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year.
The following overview illustrates the bank’s comprehensive performance across commercial growth and financial metrics:
Total income reached €6,284 million in the quarter, representing 10.2% year-over-year growth. This was supported by commercial net interest income of €4,174 million (up 10.7% YoY) and fee income of €1,278 million (up 13.9% YoY). The bank achieved positive operating jaws of 3.1 percentage points, with income growth of 5.1% outpacing expense growth of 2.0% on a four-quarter rolling basis.
Mobile primary customers, which the bank views as a key driver of deeper engagement and higher income generation, increased by 377,000 in the quarter and 1,055,000 year-over-year, reaching 39% of the total 41 million customer base.
Net core lending growth totaled €15.2 billion, translating to 8.1% annualized growth that exceeded the bank’s 5% outlook. Customer deposits grew €15.9 billion, representing 8.5% annualized growth, also surpassing the 5% target.
Strategic Execution: Accelerated Growth Post-CMD
ING’s strategic progress since its Capital Markets Day in June 2024 has resulted in markedly accelerated growth rates across its business. The bank’s compound annual growth rates show substantial improvement in the post-CMD period compared to the years preceding the strategic announcement.
As illustrated in the following chart showing pre- and post-CMD growth trajectories:
Customer lending CAGR increased from 12.0% pre-CMD to 19.6% post-CMD, while customer deposits accelerated from 6.6% to 13.1%. Fee income growth jumped from 1.9% to 7.2%, and assets under management and e-brokerage improved from 3.6% to 5.7%.
The bank emphasized that capital deployed into profitable organic growth is value accretive and exceeds returns from share buybacks, while maintaining a demonstrated low-risk profile with strong diversification. Over two-thirds of deposits are remunerated, with approximately 95% of retail savings priced at core savings rates, and the average customer lifetime exceeds 13 years.
ING highlighted progress across all four business segments. In Private Individuals, the bank introduced agentic mortgages to reduce "time-to-yes" and increase scalability, rolled out a subscription model to approximately 17 million customers, and launched a conversational banking pilot with agentic AI capabilities.
Business Banking expanded into Germany and Italy with launches announced for Spain, achieving more than 100,000 year-over-year client growth. Private Banking launched in Italy with Spain announced, while acquisitions of stakes in Van Lanschot Kempen and Singular Bank, plus full ownership of Goldman Sachs TFI in Poland, supported 34% year-over-year fee income growth.
Wholesale Banking shifted toward capital-light products, generating 11% year-over-year fee income growth, while growing deposit volumes at a 9.5% CAGR over the past two years.
Capital Management and RWA Optimization
A key driver of ING’s improved return profile has been disciplined risk-weighted asset management that has enhanced capital efficiency. While customer lending grew 9.6% year-over-year, RWA increased by only 1.8%, demonstrating effective capital optimization.
The bank’s approach to RWA management and capital rebalancing is shown in the following breakdown:
Wholesale Banking RWA decreased by €4.6 billion year-over-year, while Retail Banking RWA grew €11.6 billion, reflecting a strategic rebalancing toward higher-return retail operations. As of 2Q2026, Retail Banking accounted for 56% of Group RWAs (versus 44% for Wholesale Banking), up 6 percentage points from 2Q2024 and ahead of the bank’s rebalancing plan.
This RWA efficiency improvement resulted from increased usage of secondary loan sales, credit protection and risk insurance (CPRI), and client portfolio optimisation. The bank completed its first significant risk transfer (SRT) transaction of 2026 during the quarter, providing a 4 basis points benefit to the CET1 ratio, with cumulative CET1 relief from SRT transactions reaching 16 basis points as of 2Q2026.
Profitability and Shareholder Returns
ING’s increasing profitability, combined with ongoing share buybacks, has driven significant earnings per share accretion. Net result on a four-quarter rolling basis reached €6,701 million, up from €6,071 million in 2Q2025, while return on tangible equity improved from 12.9% to 14.5% over the same period.
The trends in profitability and capital allocation are illustrated below:
Shares outstanding decreased from 2,981 million in 2Q2025 to 2,860 million in 2Q2026 as a result of the bank’s buyback program. This reduction in share count, combined with rising profitability, resulted in earnings per share of €2.30, representing 16% year-over-year accretion.
Of the €6.7 billion in capital generated over the past 12 months, 50% (€3.4 billion) was allocated to regular dividends, approximately 10% (€0.8 billion) was deployed to facilitate €65 billion of profitable lending growth, and approximately 40% was allocated to additional distributions, selective M&A, or reserved outside of CET1.
The bank’s commitment to shareholder returns is further demonstrated in its distribution patterns:
Total distributions across the five quarters from 2Q2025 to 2Q2026 included both share buybacks and cash distributions. In 2Q2026, the bank distributed €2,567 million, comprising €442 million in buybacks and €2,125 million in cash distribution. An interim dividend of €1.1 billion (€0.40 per share) will be paid on August 10, 2026.
The share price showed strong appreciation, with the four-quarter rolling average increasing from €16.8 in 2Q2025 to €22.9 in 2Q2026, while the end-of-quarter price rose from €18.6 to €27.7.
Revenue Diversification and Income Growth
ING’s total income growth was supported by strength across all major revenue streams, with commercial net interest income and fee income both showing robust expansion.
The composition of total income is detailed in the following breakdown:
Commercial NII increased by €114 million quarter-over-quarter and was 10.7% higher than the prior year, driven by continued volume growth, disciplined pricing, and hedging tailwind on customer deposits. Fee income grew €42 million quarter-over-quarter and was up 14% year-over-year, with all products and markets contributing. All other income, supported by stronger trading income in Financial Markets and positive results from hedge ineffectiveness, increased 3.0% year-over-year to €833 million.
Customer balance growth underpinned the revenue expansion, with both lending and deposits showing substantial increases:
Total customer lending increased from €744.0 billion in 1Q2026 to €761.6 billion in 2Q2026, with net core lending growth of €15.2 billion. Retail Banking contributed €12.1 billion, driven by solid demand for mortgages and growth in business and consumer lending, while Wholesale Banking added €3.0 billion, mainly in lending where client financing demand remained strong.
Customer deposits grew from €753.1 billion to €773.2 billion, with net core deposits growth of €15.9 billion. Retail Banking recorded €16.7 billion growth, reflecting successful savings campaigns across several countries and seasonal inflows from holiday allowance payments.
The commercial NII performance reflected both volume growth and margin management:
Average customer balances increased 6.8% year-over-year, supporting commercial NII growth of 10.7%. The lending margin decreased slightly to 124 basis points, mainly reflecting a mix shift toward lower risk-density loans at attractive returns. The liability margin increased to 107 basis points, supported by continued disciplined pricing and a hedging tailwind on replicated deposits. The commercial net interest margin remained relatively stable at 226 basis points.
Fee income momentum continued across product categories, with retail assets under management showing particularly strong growth:
Total fee income of €1,278 million represented 14% growth year-over-year. Retail Banking fees grew 16% across markets, supported by the addition of 1.1 million mobile primary customers and a 5% increase in Business Banking clients. Active investment product customers increased 8% to 5.3 million, while AuM and e-brokerage grew 27% to €322 billion, driven by €21 billion of net flows (approximately 8%), positive market effects, and the integration of TFI in Poland.
Wholesale Banking fees were up 11% year-over-year, supported by higher syndication fees, increased client issuance activity in Capital Markets, and higher deal flow in Trade Finance.
Capital Strength and CET1 Development
ING’s CET1 ratio increased to 13.1% in 2Q2026, supported by strong capital generation and continued capital optimization measures. The bank’s capital position remained well above its approximately 13% target, providing flexibility for both growth and shareholder returns.
The development of the CET1 ratio during the quarter is shown below:
Starting from a pro forma 1Q2026 position of 12.9% (after accounting for the ongoing share buyback), the bank generated 0.6% from net result, reserved 0.6% for profits (100% reservation), and benefited from 0.1% positive RWA movements, reaching 13.1% at quarter-end.
RWA decreased by €2.4 billion, mainly driven by €2.2 billion lower Market RWA. Credit RWA (excluding €0.5 billion of FX impacts) decreased by €0.6 billion, as RWA growth from business activity was more than offset by €1.0 billion relief from an SRT transaction completed during the quarter, as well as model updates and the partial reduction of the stake in TMBThanachart Bank.
As of 1Q2026, ING is required to reserve, outside of CET1, for both its regular 50% payout policy and any potential additional distributions. The bank noted that €2.7 billion of profits is reserved outside of CET1, of which €1.0 billion is incrementally reserved to the regular 50% payout policy.
Forward-Looking Statements and Upgraded Outlook
ING raised its outlook for both 2026 and 2027, reflecting confidence in sustained momentum across its business. The upgraded targets represent substantial increases from the bank’s previous guidance.
The comprehensive outlook comparison is presented in the following table:
For 2026, ING now expects total income of more than €24.5 billion (upgraded from approximately €24 billion), fee income of approximately €5.0 billion (upgraded from 5-10% growth), and return on tangible equity of more than 15% (upgraded from more than 14%). Operating expenses are expected to remain at €12.6-€12.8 billion, with the CET1 ratio targeted at approximately 13%.
For 2027, the bank upgraded its total income target to more than €26 billion (from more than €25 billion), fee income to €5.3-€5.5 billion (from more than €5 billion), and ROTE to more than 16% (from more than 15%). Operating expenses are expected to be approximately €13 billion, with the CET1 ratio maintained at approximately 13%.
The bank noted that commercial NII is expected to be between €16.8 billion and €17.0 billion in 2026, an increase from prior expectations, with the FY2026 liability margin expected to be in the upper mid-range of 100-110 basis points.
Management emphasized that the outlook excludes potential impact of the intended exit from Russia and other incidental items or one-offs. Incidental cost items booked in 2Q2026 and subsequent quarters are incremental to the outlook for operating expenses.
Detailed Financial Results
The complete financial overview for the quarter provides additional context on the bank’s performance across all income and expense categories:
Net result for 2Q2026 was €1,947 million, after taxation of €902 million and non-controlling interests of €71 million. The result before tax of €2,919 million reflected gross result of €3,198 million less addition to loan loss provisions of €279 million.
Excluding volatile items, total income was €6,195 million, with commercial NII of €4,174 million, fee income of €1,277 million, and all other income of €745 million. Operating expenses excluding volatile items totaled €3,039 million.
Risk costs remained well below the through-the-cycle average of 20 basis points, coming in at 15 basis points of average customer lending in 2Q2026. This reflects the strength and diversified nature of the loan book. Stage 3 risk costs were €270 million, including releases related to the sale of non-performing loans in Retail Banking, while Stage 1 and Stage 2 risk costs were €8 million, supported by a partial release of the overlay for interest-only mortgages in the Netherlands.
Geographic Performance and Diversification
ING’s Retail Banking operations across multiple countries contributed to the strong overall returns, with scale advantages and mobile customer growth supporting profitability:
The bank’s 41.2 million customers across nine countries generated strong returns, with Retail Banking achieving a four-quarter rolling average return on equity of 22.9%. The Netherlands led with 32.3% ROE, followed by Germany at 27.9%, Romania at 25.1%, and Poland at 23.7%.
Mobile primary customer growth totaled 1,055,000 over the past four quarters, with Germany contributing 291,000, Spain 177,000, the Netherlands 177,000, Poland 146,000, and Romania 105,000. Net core lending growth of €40.2 billion was led by the Netherlands (€16.5 billion), Germany (€7.8 billion), and Australia (€4.6 billion).
Customer deposits totaled €678.2 billion, with the Netherlands accounting for €233.4 billion, Germany €166.4 billion, and Spain €56.9 billion. The diversified geographic presence provides stability and growth opportunities across different market conditions.
The bank emphasized its granular deposit base, with approximately 70% of total deposits from private individuals, of which more than 80% are deposit guarantee scheme-covered. The average private individual account balance is less than €15,000, indicating a highly granular and stable funding base.
Full presentation:
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