TC Energy二季度EBITDA增长并指向2026年指引上端，但股价盘中未确认重定价

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Introduction & Market Context
TC Energy (NYSE:TRP) presented its second quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026, showcasing broad-based operational strength that drove comparable EBITDA up 12% year-over-year to $2.95 billion. The Calgary-based energy infrastructure company beat Wall Street’s profit expectations with adjusted earnings of $0.94 per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.8325, while maintaining its position near 52-week highs with shares trading at $94.40.
The presentation highlighted the company’s success in converting strong North American natural gas demand into a growing project backlog, with more than $20 billion in advanced-stage opportunities and approximately $3 billion in new projects sanctioned year-to-date. Management indicated the company is now targeting the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance range of CAD 11.6 billion to CAD 11.8 billion.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
TC Energy delivered strong operational performance across all business segments in the second quarter, with natural gas pipeline flows increasing 3% system-wide and power generation assets achieving exceptionally high availability rates.
As shown in the following breakdown of quarterly performance and EBITDA contribution by segment:
The Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines segment reported total system deliveries averaging 24.2 Bcf/d, up 1% from the prior year, while Canadian Mainline Western receipts increased 4% to 4.6 Bcf/d. The segment contributed $38 million in incremental comparable EBITDA versus Q2 2025.
U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines posted the strongest performance with daily average flows of 27.0 Bcf/d, up 5% year-over-year, driven by increased deliveries to LNG facilities which averaged 3.9 Bcf/d, a 13% increase. The Gillis Access pipeline set an all-time delivery record of 1.5 Bcf on July 3, 2026. Comparable EBITDA for the segment increased $129 million, or 12%, from the prior year quarter.
Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines saw daily average flows of 3.4 Bcf/d, down 5% from Q2 2025, though deliveries to natural gas-powered generation remained stable at 1.4 Bcf/d. Despite lower volumes, the segment achieved a 28% increase in comparable EBITDA, adding $90 million versus the prior year.
Power and Energy Solutions delivered exceptional performance with Bruce Power achieving 98.5% availability and the cogeneration fleet reaching 89.6% availability. The segment’s comparable EBITDA increased $60 million, or 20%, year-over-year.
Strategic Growth Pipeline
TC Energy’s project development pipeline continues to expand, providing significant visibility into future EBITDA growth. The company has placed approximately $2 billion of assets into service year-to-date and expects to commission an additional $3.5 billion by year-end 2026.
The following chart illustrates the company’s multi-stage project advancement strategy:
The $3 billion in projects sanctioned year-to-date carry a weighted average after-tax internal rate of return of approximately 12%, demonstrating the company’s ability to secure attractive returns on new investments. These projects include the Central Virginia Capacity expansion, the Clark Project, MYGP expansion facilities, and the Appalachia Supply Project.
TC Energy has approximately $7 billion in projects pending approval for the 2026-2031 period, with management noting "advanced commercial discussions on multiple projects." Beyond the near-term backlog, the company identified more than $20 billion in additional projects in origination, targeting build multiples of 5 to 7 times capital expenditure to comparable EBITDA.
The company’s geographic footprint and recent project announcements demonstrate its competitive positioning across key North American markets:
Among the newly announced projects, the Central Virginia Capacity expansion represents approximately US$0.3 billion in capital with 0.4 Bcf/d of capacity and a 6.4x build multiple, supported by a 20-year take-or-pay contract with an expected 2028-2030 in-service date. The Clark Project, with US$0.1 billion in capital and 0.3 Bcf/d capacity, carries a 4.4x build multiple and targets a 2028 in-service date, also backed by a 20-year contract.
Market Opportunity & Demand Outlook
TC Energy significantly increased its long-term forecast for North American natural gas demand growth, now projecting an incremental 51 Bcf/d by 2035, up from a previous estimate of 46 Bcf/d. This upward revision reflects strengthening fundamentals across multiple demand sectors, particularly power generation and LNG exports.
The revised demand outlook is illustrated in the following chart:
Power generation is expected to drive more than half of the year-over-year forecast increase, with approximately 70% of natural gas-fired power demand growth coming from the U.S. Heartland, Alberta, and Mexico. The company noted that power generation demand is projected to grow by 16 Bcf/d from 2025 to 2035, driven by data center development, coal-to-gas switching, and industrial electrification.
On the supply side, TC Energy emphasized its strategic advantage in connecting growing demand with abundant supply, noting that over 60% of forecasted natural gas production will come from diverse, TC Energy-connected basins. The company highlighted that North America possesses over 100 years of economic natural gas supply at current production levels.
Canadian natural gas demand is also experiencing robust growth, with the following regional breakdown showing market opportunities:
In Canada, demand is projected to increase by over 8 Bcf/d, or 65%, from 2025 to 2035, with significant contributions from LNG export facilities and intra-Alberta demand driven by record data center participation. TC Energy has launched multiple NGTL service offerings to support approximately 1 Bcf/d of incremental system throughput, with several offerings already fully subscribed for 2029 delivery in the Greater Edmonton Area.
Operational Excellence & Bruce Power
Bruce Power’s Unit 3 Major Component Replacement project exemplified TC Energy’s execution capabilities, returning to service more than seven months ahead of the original IESO schedule and delivering approximately $150 million back to Ontario ratepayers through cost efficiencies.
The following timeline illustrates the execution improvements achieved across the MCR program:
The company achieved approximately 15% cost reduction from Unit 6 to Unit 3 through disciplined planning, supply chain readiness, and a repeatable approach leveraging an experienced workforce. Key success factors included design maturity to reduce execution risk, strong decision gate mechanisms, continuous learning, and innovation and automation to improve productivity.
Bruce Power Unit 4’s MCR is currently tracking to cost and schedule expectations, with the lessons learned from Units 6 and 3 being applied to future work. The MCR program is expected to extend the operating life of Bruce Power units while maintaining high availability rates that contribute significantly to the Power and Energy Solutions segment’s financial performance.
Financial Outlook & Capital Allocation
TC Energy is targeting the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook of $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion, representing growth from $11.0 billion in 2025. The company maintained its 2028 outlook of $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion in comparable EBITDA.
The progression of comparable EBITDA and key drivers are shown in the following outlook chart:
Management identified several key drivers supporting the comparable EBITDA outlook, including revenue enhancements and rate case outcomes, government policies supporting new infrastructure builds, bringing assets into service ahead of schedule, technological innovations including AI-enabled solutions, capital and operational efficiencies, commercial marketing synergies between natural gas and power, and favorable foreign exchange movements.
The company’s capital allocation strategy reflects an opportunity-driven approach balanced with financial discipline. Future capital investment will be driven by project opportunities across the portfolio:
Net capital expenditures are projected to range from approximately $5.8 billion in 2026 to $6.8 billion in 2030, with the largest component consisting of projects in origination. The $20+ billion in origination projects breaks down by demand driver as 67% LNG, 17% power generation, 11% supply access, and 5% local distribution company reliability improvements.
Chief Financial Officer Sean O’Donnell emphasized the company’s commitment to maintaining leverage at 4.75 times debt-to-EBITDA or better, noting that organic deleveraging will help fund future growth. Management indicated it has time to evaluate funding options, including capital rotation, hybrid securities, or other market tools, before Bruce Power’s cash flow inflection later in the decade.
Sustainability Performance
TC Energy reported significant sustainability achievements in 2025, demonstrating that environmental and safety improvements can accompany business growth and strong financial performance.
The company’s sustainability highlights are summarized as follows:
The company achieved a 24% reduction in methane intensity since 2019 while simultaneously increasing throughput by 20% and growing Natural Gas Pipelines comparable EBITDA by 57%, demonstrating that environmental performance and business growth are not mutually exclusive.
TC Energy invested $5.4 billion with Indigenous and Native American businesses from 2021 to 2025, reflecting its commitment to economic reconciliation and local community engagement. The company also achieved a 66% improvement in its high-energy serious injury and fatality (HSIF) rate in 2025 versus 2024, while placing $8.3 billion of assets into service 15% under budget.
Notably, the company reported zero significant process safety incidents in 2025 while maintaining greater than 97.1% asset availability across its infrastructure network, underscoring the effectiveness of its operational discipline and safety culture.
Strategic Priorities & Execution
TC Energy outlined its progress on three strategic priorities for 2026: maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence, executing its selective portfolio of growth projects, and ensuring financial strength and agility.
The company’s delivery on these priorities is detailed in the following framework:
On safety and operational excellence, the company achieved zero Tier 1 process safety events year-to-date, delivered 12% comparable EBITDA growth in Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025, filed settlement agreements on Great Lakes and received FERC approval on ANR, and received CER approval of the 2027-2030 settlement for the Canadian Mainline.
For growth project execution, TC Energy announced approximately $0.7 billion of new projects primarily serving power generation and data center demand, launched multiple NGTL service offerings to support approximately 1 Bcf/d of incremental system throughput, and brought Bruce Power Unit 3 back into service more than seven months ahead of schedule.
On financial strength, the company is tracking to the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook, advanced its methane intensity target while supporting system competitiveness and strong financial performance, and remains on track to deliver its long-term target of 4.75 times debt-to-EBITDA.
President and CEO François Poirier emphasized the company’s strategic focus: "Our consistent focus on safety and execution excellence is the foundation that delivers reliable service, it wins new business, and it ultimately drives higher financial performance that continues to create long-term shareholder value." He added that TC Energy is "capitalizing on the competitive advantages afforded by our incumbent footprint in some of the highest growth markets in North America and converting strong demand into high-return growth projects."
The presentation reinforced TC Energy’s positioning to benefit from long-term structural trends in North American energy markets, including the transition to natural gas-fired power generation, LNG export growth, and emerging demand from data centers and industrial facilities. With a substantial project backlog, improving execution metrics, and strengthening demand fundamentals, the company appears well-positioned to deliver on its medium-term growth targets while maintaining the financial discipline that has characterized its recent performance.
Full presentation:
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