NatWest上半年业绩强劲并上调2026年收入和回报指引

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Introduction & Market Context
NatWest Group (NYSE:NWG) presented its first-half 2026 results to fixed income investors on July 31, showcasing what the British bank described as "sector-leading returns" of 19.7% on tangible equity alongside the successful completion of its transformative Evelyn Partners acquisition. The presentation came as shares rose 3.83% in premarket trading to $19.24, approaching the 52-week high of $19.355, following second-quarter results that beat analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue.
The lender’s Chief Financial Officer Katie Murray emphasized the bank’s momentum across retail banking, commercial lending and wealth management, noting that operating leverage improvements and disciplined capital management have positioned NatWest as "the most efficient large U.K. bank." The presentation detailed strengthened 2026 guidance and an accelerated timeline for share buyback resumptions, reflecting confidence in sustained performance.
Executive Summary
As illustrated in the following performance overview, NatWest delivered comprehensive growth across its three core businesses in the first half of 2026, with customer assets and liabilities increasing 13.4% year-over-year to £987bn, or 5.2% excluding the Evelyn Partners acquisition. The bank achieved positive operating leverage of 4.4 percentage points, with income rising 8.9% while costs increased just 4.5%.
The bank’s return on tangible equity of 19.7% for the half exceeded its 2028 target of greater than 18%, while the cost-to-income ratio improved 2.8 percentage points to 46.0%, approaching the medium-term goal of below 45%. Customer loans grew £27.8bn or 6.8% to £410bn, while customer deposits increased 2.7% to £448bn. Assets under management and administration surged 152% to £131bn, driven primarily by the £71.7bn contribution from Evelyn Partners.
Capital generation reached 137 basis points before distributions, excluding a 5 basis point impact from the Evelyn Partners acquisition. The CET1 ratio stood at 13.2%, maintaining the bank’s target operating level of approximately 13% despite the 142 basis point impact from the wealth management deal.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
The following detailed financial breakdown demonstrates consistent momentum building through the first half, with second-quarter operating profit before impairments reaching £2.5bn, up 19.5% year-over-year.
Net interest income excluding notable items climbed 12.6% to £6.9bn in the first half, benefiting from both volume growth and margin expansion. The net interest margin improved to 249 basis points in the second quarter from 247 basis points in the first quarter, supported by favorable deposit pricing dynamics and the bank’s structural hedging program.
Non-interest income excluding notable items declined 3.3% to £1.8bn, reflecting market volatility impacts on trading revenues, though this was more than offset by the strong net interest income performance. Total income including notable items rose 11.0% to £8.9bn.
Operating expenses totaled £4.1bn, with the bank achieving approximately £250 million in gross cost savings through technology transformation and ongoing simplification initiatives. These savings partially offset wage inflation of 4.1% effective April 1 and investment spending of approximately £300 million focused on data, technology and operating model transformation.
The sequential income momentum from first to second quarter illustrated strong business performance across all three divisions, with Commercial & Institutional contributing £145 million of the £209 million total growth from business operations.
Management projected full-year 2026 income excluding notable items of approximately £17.9bn, including roughly £275 million from Evelyn Partners, based on an assumed UK base rate of 3.75%. This represents an upgrade from previous guidance of the top end of £17.2-17.6bn.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
The bank demonstrated broad-based customer asset and liability growth of £86.8bn or 9.6% in the second quarter, significantly enhanced by the Evelyn Partners transaction which added £71.7bn in assets under management and administration.
Excluding the Evelyn Partners impact, organic growth totaled £15.1bn or 1.6%, driven by £9.7bn in lending growth, £2.8bn in deposit increases, and £2.6bn in assets under management and administration expansion.
The lending growth reflected particular strength in Commercial & Institutional segments, as shown in the following breakdown of gross loans to customers by business segment.
Mortgages increased £7.2bn or 3.4% in the first half to £219.3bn, with the bank’s stock share rising to 12.7% from 12.5% at year-end 2025. Commercial Mid-market lending grew £1.9bn, concentrated in commercial real estate, manufacturing and social housing sectors. Corporate & Institutions lending surged £8.3bn or 11.1%, driven by structural demand across infrastructure, renewables and transition finance.
Deposit growth of £2.8bn was led by Commercial & Institutional and Private Banking & Wealth Management divisions, with the overall deposit mix maintaining stability across term, instant access and non-interest-bearing balances.
The transformation of the wealth management business through the Evelyn Partners acquisition represented a strategic milestone, more than doubling assets under management and administration as detailed in the following chart.
Excluding the acquisition, assets under management and administration grew £6.2bn or 11.8% in the second quarter, with net flows of £1.1bn representing 10.2% of opening assets under management. The combined wealth platform positions NatWest to capture growth in the U.K.’s expanding high-net-worth and affluent customer segments.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Management
The bank’s focus on operational leverage produced meaningful results, with the cost-to-income ratio improving to 46.0% in the first half from 48.8% in the prior-year period, as illustrated in the following analysis of operating expense movements.
Gross cost savings of approximately £250 million stemmed primarily from technology transformation initiatives and ongoing simplification efforts. These savings more than offset wage inflation of roughly £125 million, reflecting a 4.1% average increase effective April 1, and business growth investments of approximately £300 million.
The bank guided full-year 2026 group operating costs excluding litigation and conduct expenses to approximately £8.5bn, including roughly £300 million for Evelyn Partners. The acquisition will contribute transaction costs of £28 million recognized in the first half, operating costs of approximately £185 million in the second half, amortization of acquired intangibles of about £60 million, and costs-to-achieve synergies of roughly £20 million. Management targets approximately £100 million in cost synergies by year three, with total costs-to-achieve of about £150 million.
Asset Quality and Risk Management
Credit quality remained robust, with structurally lower impairments underpinned by the bank’s well-diversified, high-quality loan book, as shown in the following impairment rate trends.
The loan impairment rate for the first half stood at 19 basis points, well below the full-year guidance of less than 25 basis points. The first-half charge totaled £423 million, including £20 million from post-model adjustment changes and £122 million from changes in economic forecasts. The second quarter saw a normalized charge of £140 million or 13 basis points.
Stage 3 impairment rates remained contained at 10 basis points for the group, with Retail Banking at 25 basis points, Private Banking & Wealth Management at 6 basis points, and Commercial & Institutional at 17 basis points. Total post-model adjustments increased to £316 million from £296 million at year-end 2025, reflecting continued prudent provisioning for economic uncertainty.
The bank’s stress test performance demonstrated resilience, with the 2025 Bank Capital Stress Test showing NatWest had the lowest projected CET1 drawdown of 250 basis points among U.K. banks, significantly below the 430 basis point aggregate for the sector.
Capital Position and Funding Strategy
NatWest maintained a solid capital position with key metrics well above regulatory requirements, as summarized in the following overview.
The CET1 ratio of 13.2% provided an appropriate buffer to regulatory requirements while maintaining flexibility to support customers and pursue growth opportunities. The MREL ratio stood at 30.6%, well above the 21.8% requirement, and the UK leverage ratio of 4.7% exceeded the 4.3% Tier 1 leverage requirement.
The trajectory of the CET1 ratio through the first half reflected strong organic capital generation partially offset by the Evelyn Partners acquisition and ordinary dividend accruals, as illustrated in the following waterfall analysis.
Starting from 14.0% at year-end 2025, the CET1 ratio absorbed a 142 basis point impact from the Evelyn Partners acquisition before benefiting from 197 basis points of gross capital generation. Organic growth consumed 61 basis points, RWA management utilized 41 basis points, and investment spending required 11 basis points. After the 76 basis point ordinary dividend accrual, the ratio ended the half at 13.2%.
Management projected capital generation before distributions exceeding 240 basis points for full-year 2026 excluding the Evelyn Partners impact, equivalent to greater than 100 basis points on a reported basis. This strong generation capability enabled the bank to accelerate its expected share buyback resumption to full-year 2026 from the previous expectation of first-half 2027.
Liquidity metrics remained robust, with the liquidity coverage ratio at 140%, net stable funding ratio at 132%, and primary liquidity of £152bn. Customer deposits provided approximately 83% of funding supply, with wholesale funding of £93bn diversified across multiple instruments and maturities.
The bank made good progress on its 2026 issuance plans, completing approximately £7.4bn in benchmark transactions against guidance totaling roughly £9bn across various capital and funding instruments. Group Treasurer Donal Quaid indicated the bank expects to remain active in MREL markets in the second half, with about £1.4bn remaining of its £3bn holdco senior guidance.
Forward-Looking Guidance and Strategic Targets
NatWest strengthened its full-year 2026 guidance across multiple metrics, reflecting confidence in sustained momentum and the successful integration of Evelyn Partners, as detailed in the following comparison of previous and updated guidance against first-half actuals.
The bank now expects total income excluding notable items of approximately £17.9bn including roughly £275 million for Evelyn Partners, up from previous guidance of the top end of £17.2-17.6bn. Other operating expenses are projected at approximately £8.5bn including about £300 million for Evelyn Partners, compared to prior guidance of roughly £8.2bn.
Return on tangible equity guidance increased to greater than 19% from the previous target of above 17%, with first-half actuals of 19.7% already exceeding the upgraded target. Capital generation before distributions and the Evelyn Partners day-one impact is expected to exceed 240 basis points compared to the previous guidance of approximately 200 basis points.
The loan impairment rate guidance remained unchanged at below 25 basis points, with first-half performance of 19 basis points providing substantial headroom. The ordinary dividend payout ratio is maintained at approximately 50% of earnings, with a 12.0 pence interim dividend announced.
Looking toward medium-term 2028 targets, the bank aims to achieve a cost-to-income ratio below 45%, return on tangible equity above 18%, capital generation exceeding 200 basis points before distributions, and customer asset and liability compound annual growth rate greater than 4%. First-half 2026 performance already exceeded these targets on disciplined growth and return metrics, while approaching the cost efficiency and capital generation goals.
The bank noted that Basel 3.1 implementation on January 1, 2027 is expected to increase risk-weighted assets by approximately £10bn, with the Prudential Regulation Authority estimating Tier 1 capital requirements for major U.K. banks to increase by less than 1% by January 2030. Management expressed confidence in the bank’s ability to absorb these regulatory changes while maintaining its capital targets and growth trajectory.
Additional regulatory developments under review include the Pillar 2A framework update, buffer usability enhancements, leverage framework reforms expected to reduce the minimum leverage ratio by approximately 40 basis points, and the ring-fencing review introducing a new growth allowance for ring-fenced banks of up to 10% of credit risk-weighted assets.
The presentation concluded with management emphasizing the bank’s positioning to deliver consistent sector-leading growth and returns through its three diversified businesses, enhanced competitive advantage through improved operating leverage, and strengthened capital generation providing flexibility to invest and grow while returning attractive returns to shareholders.
Full presentation:
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