伊塔乌二季度盈利和收入低于预期但ROE仍强

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Introduction & Market Context
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. presented its second-quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026, revealing a quarter marked by resilient profitability despite missing Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue. The Brazilian banking giant reported earnings per share of $0.2096 versus a consensus forecast of $0.2238, while revenue came in at $9.1 billion against expectations of $9.44 billion.
Despite the shortfall, investors appeared to focus on the bank’s underlying strength, pushing shares up 2.75% to $8.415, near the top of the 52-week range of $6.388 to $9.6. The positive market reaction suggests confidence in Itaú’s core fundamentals, particularly its industry-leading return on equity and improving capital position.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
The presentation revealed that Itaú’s recurring managerial result reached R$12.4 billion in the second quarter, representing a 1.0% increase from the prior quarter and a 7.8% gain year-over-year. More importantly, the bank maintained a consolidated return on equity of 24.3%, placing it among the most profitable large banks in Latin America.
As shown in the following financial highlights summary, the bank’s performance metrics demonstrate continued strength across key areas:
The Brazil-focused ROE stood at 25.7%, underscoring the strength of the domestic franchise despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. When adjusted to an 11.5% Common Equity Tier I ratio, the consolidated recurring managerial return would have been 25.1% consolidated and 26.7% in Brazil, providing what management described as "perhaps the most comparable metric across earnings releases."
The bank’s Common Equity Tier I (CET I) ratio improved to 12.3% as of June 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from March but down 0.8 percentage points from the prior year. This capital strengthening provides a stronger buffer for future growth and regulatory requirements.
Portfolio Growth and Credit Quality
Itaú’s credit portfolio reached R$1,522 billion as of June 2026, expanding 2.7% from the prior quarter and 9.6% year-over-year. The growth was broad-based across segments, with particular strength in mortgage lending, payroll loans and corporate credit.
The detailed portfolio breakdown shows disciplined expansion across all major segments:
Notable origination highlights included a 14.3% quarterly increase in the private sector payroll portfolio and 90.1% year-over-year growth. In mortgages, Itaú maintained its leadership position with R$36 billion in origination over the last 12 months and a 55% market share among private banks. The SME segment also showed momentum, with government-sponsored facilities portfolio increasing 7.2% versus the prior quarter.
Credit quality metrics remained stable and in some areas improved. As illustrated in the following NPL ratio trends, the bank demonstrated continued discipline in risk management:
The 90-day NPL ratio for the consolidated portfolio declined from 3.0% in June 2024 to 1.9% in June 2026, with Brazil showing a similar improvement trajectory. The 15-90 day NPL ratio remained relatively stable at 2.2% for both total and Brazil portfolios.
The bank’s cost of credit as a percentage of the loan portfolio remained steady at 2.7% across recent quarters, as shown in this cost of credit analysis:
The absolute cost of credit increased to R$10.1 billion in the second quarter from R$10.0 billion in the first quarter, reflecting portfolio growth while maintaining the same risk-adjusted ratio. The renegotiated portfolio continued to decline as a percentage of total loans, reaching 2.6% by June 2026.
Revenue Streams and Efficiency
The bank’s financial margin with clients reached R$32.6 billion for the second quarter, up 3.3% from the prior quarter and 5.1% year-over-year. The waterfall analysis below illustrates the key drivers of this performance:
Average volume contributed R$0.3 billion to the quarterly increase, while spreads and liabilities’ margin added R$0.1 billion. Calendar and working days effects contributed R$0.2 billion, with Latin America and other operations adding another R$0.2 billion. The annualized average margin with clients remained stable at 9.1% on a consolidated basis and 10.0% in Brazil.
The financial margin with the market showed more volatility but remained positive at R$0.9 billion in the second quarter, with Brazil contributing R$1.4 billion offset by a R$0.7 billion capital index hedge.
Commissions, fees, and insurance results presented a mixed picture, as detailed in this comprehensive breakdown:
Total commissions and fees reached R$11.0 billion, up just 0.3% from the prior quarter and 2.3% year-over-year. Asset management showed strong growth of 4.6% quarter-over-quarter and 7.3% year-over-year, reaching R$2.0 billion. Advisory services and brokerage surged 32.5% year-over-year to R$1.3 billion. However, current account fees for individuals declined 7.4% quarter-over-quarter and 21.2% year-over-year, while payments and collections fell 7.5% year-over-year.
Insurance, pension plans and premium bonds results grew 0.9% quarter-over-quarter and 8.7% year-over-year to R$3.1 billion, providing some offset to softer fee trends.
On the expense side, the bank demonstrated continued operational discipline. As shown in the following efficiency analysis:
Non-interest expenses totaled R$16.7 billion in the second quarter, up 3.3% from the prior quarter and 3.1% year-over-year. The efficiency ratio in Brazil improved to 35.5% for the first half of 2026 from 35.7% in the first half of 2025, while the consolidated ratio improved to 37.3% from 37.5%. These levels rank among the best in the market and reflect years of cost control, digital investment and portfolio optimization.
Capital Position and Risk Management
The bank’s capital evolution during the second quarter demonstrated strong organic capital generation. The following waterfall chart illustrates the key movements:
Starting from a CET I ratio of 12.0% in March, net income contributed 0.8 percentage points while dividends and interest on own capital reduced the ratio by 0.3 percentage points. Risk-weighted assets and other adjustments reduced the ratio by 0.1 percentage points, resulting in a June CET I of 12.3%. Including Additional Tier I capital of 1.5%, the total Tier I capital ratio reached 13.8%.
The bank’s credit quality under Resolution 4,966 showed stable trends across portfolio stages:
Stage 2 portfolios (increased credit risk) declined to 4.1% of total loans by June 2026, while Stage 3 portfolios (credit-impaired) also improved to 4.1%. Coverage ratios remained robust, with Stage 3 coverage at 53.8% on a consolidated basis, providing substantial loss absorption capacity.
Business Model Performance
The bank’s segmental performance by business model revealed balanced contributions across its franchise:
The credit business generated R$9.7 billion in recurring managerial result for the first half of 2026, up from R$8.5 billion in the prior year, with an ROE of 15.4%. Insurance and services delivered R$13.4 billion with a 50.0% ROE, while trading contributed R$0.9 billion with a 21.6% ROE. The strong performance in insurance and services, which achieved value creation of R$9.5 billion, highlights the benefits of Itaú’s diversified business model.
Forward-Looking Statements
Management maintained most of its full-year 2026 guidance but made one significant adjustment. The updated guidance is presented below:
The bank revised its outlook for commissions, fees and insurance results to growth between 2.0% and 5.0%, down from the previous range of 5.0% to 9.0%. This change reflects softer economic activity and more cautious expectations for some fee-generating businesses, particularly credit cards and services.
All other guidance ranges remained unchanged, including:
- Total credit portfolio growth in Brazil: 5.5% to 9.5%
- Credit portfolio growth in Brazil: 6.5% to 10.5%
- Financial margin with clients growth: 5.0% to 9.0%
- Financial margin with the market: R$2.5 billion to R$5.5 billion
- Cost of credit: R$38.5 billion to R$43.5 billion
- Non-interest expenses growth: 1.5% to 5.5%
- Effective tax rate: 29.5% to 32.5%
Management noted that the lower fee outlook was offset by other assumptions, including an effective tax rate expected at the lower end of the guidance range, leaving the bottom-line outlook effectively unchanged. The company indicated it expects to provide 2027 guidance with next year’s budget.
The comprehensive income statement detail provides additional context for the quarter’s performance:
Looking ahead, Itaú expects loan portfolio growth to remain around 9-10%, with net interest income with clients accelerating in the second half of the year. Cost of credit is expected to stay near the midpoint of guidance, while expenses should grow approximately 3.1% year-over-year, below inflation and wage adjustments.
Management emphasized that growth would remain disciplined and tied to expected returns, particularly in mortgages, payroll loans and SME lending. The company also highlighted that its digital transformation efforts, including the completion of the One Itaú super app migration covering 50 million clients and the launch of more than 20 new products, should support future cross-sell opportunities and customer engagement.
Despite the modest earnings miss and reduced fee guidance, the bank’s core fundamentals remain strong, with industry-leading profitability, improving capital levels, stable credit quality and disciplined expense management positioning it well for continued performance in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
Full presentation:
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