Mosaic二季度净亏2.73亿美元但管理层强调肥料市场复苏

Stocks turn mixed after stellar start to August takes Wall Street back to record
Introduction & Market Context
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) presented its second quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026, revealing a challenging operational period marked by consolidated net losses of $273 million and operating losses across all three business segments. However, the fertilizer producer emphasized improving market fundamentals and strategic repositioning efforts that management believes will support recovery as supply constraints tighten and commodity prices strengthen.
The presentation comes as the stock trades at $23.41, up 3.08% from the previous close of $22.71, though still well below its 52-week high of $36.99. Investors appeared to focus on the company’s liquidity position, cost management initiatives, and positive market signals rather than the quarter’s operational challenges.
Q2 2026 Financial Performance
Mosaic reported consolidated revenues of $2,824 million for the second quarter, with an operating loss of $36 million and adjusted EBITDA of $407 million. The results reflected significant headwinds across the company’s three operating segments.
As shown in the following breakdown of consolidated and segment performance:
The Phosphate segment generated net revenues of $1,246 million but posted an operating loss of $104 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $128 million. Production and sales volumes both reached 1.4 million tonnes, while the DAP selling price averaged $773 per tonne FOB plant. The segment’s cash cost of conversion stood at $129 per tonne, with $60 million in idle, turnaround and unabsorbed fixed costs weighing on profitability.
The detailed phosphate metrics reveal the operational pressures facing this segment:
Management highlighted that Q2 realized stripping margins exceeded historical levels and noted that Q3 sulfur contracts settled below prevailing spot market prices. However, the company announced additional curtailments in Q3 to manage through current market conditions, with sulfur availability remaining a critical constraint.
The Potash segment delivered stronger performance with net revenues of $650 million, operating earnings of $195 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $278 million. Sales volumes reached 2.0 million tonnes while production totaled 1.8 million tonnes. The MOP selling price averaged $275 per tonne FOB mine, with a cash cost of production of just $84 per tonne.
The potash operational metrics demonstrate the segment’s relative strength:
Management emphasized that global potash fundamentals remained balanced with strong demand expected across all key markets in Q3. The Esterhazy turnaround was completed during the quarter, and the Hydrofloat ramp-up is expected to drive higher production and lower unit costs going forward. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was supported by higher realized prices.
Mosaic Fertilizantes, the company’s Brazilian operations, reported net revenues of $1,034 million with an operating loss of $41 million and adjusted EBITDA of $60 million. Total sales volumes reached 1.5 million tonnes, with 0.7 million tonnes of produced products. The phosphate cash cost of conversion for this segment was $141 per tonne.
The Fertilizantes performance metrics are detailed in the following breakdown:
Management noted that production was scaled back to manage through current market conditions, though co-product margins improved during the second quarter. Importantly, the Araxá sale process is advancing with multiple indications of interest received.
Market Dynamics Supporting Recovery
Despite the operational challenges, Mosaic’s presentation emphasized several positive market trends that could support future performance. Commodity prices have been recovering across key agricultural markets, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all showing upward momentum.
The following chart illustrates the commodity price recovery through July 2026:
Corn prices recovered from approximately $4.00 per bushel in June to about $4.60 by July 2026. Soybeans climbed from around $11.00 to approximately $12.00 over the same period, while HRW wheat demonstrated strong recovery from $5.00 in January to between $7.00 and $7.50 by July 2026.
A critical driver of fertilizer demand is nutrient depletion from strong harvests and higher acreage. The company presented data showing significant two-year incremental nutrient removal in both the United States and Brazil.
As illustrated in this analysis of nutrient depletion trends:
In the U.S., incremental phosphorus removal (DAP-equivalent) totaled approximately 1.4 million tonnes for 2025 and 0.9 million tonnes for 2026 compared to the 2022-24 average. In Brazil, the figures were even more striking at approximately 1.8 million tonnes for both 2025 and 2026. Potassium removal (MOP-equivalent) showed similar trends, with approximately 0.9 million tonnes of incremental removal in both regions.
Fertilizer affordability has improved significantly, which should support demand recovery. The company’s analysis shows that plant nutrient affordability metrics have moved below long-term averages, indicating more favorable economics for farmers.
The affordability trends across major nutrients are shown in the following analysis:
DAP affordability improved 15% year-over-year, though it remains 69% above the 2010-present average. MOP affordability improved 13% year-over-year and is now at the 2010-present average. Urea showed the strongest improvement at 20% year-over-year, though still 28% above the long-term average.
A key competitive advantage for Mosaic is its ability to secure favorable raw material contracts. The company highlighted that Q3 Tampa contracts for sulfur and ammonia settled well below global spot prices, providing a cost advantage heading into the third quarter.
The benchmark stripping margin analysis demonstrates Mosaic’s profitability potential:
Benchmark stripping margins have been recovering since mid-2025, climbing toward $550 per metric tonne by August 2026. The margin components showed substantial increases from January 2021 to August 2026: phosphoric acid prices rose from $390 per short ton to $795, ammonia increased from $270 to $635 per metric tonne, and sulfur surged from $96 to $705 per long ton.
The phosphate market itself shows signs of tightening, with elevated pricing and constrained global shipments supporting the outlook for improved profitability.
As detailed in this market analysis:
DAP prices in India climbed from approximately $700 per metric tonne to between $900-$950 by July 2026, while MAP prices in Brazil increased from about $600 to $850-$900 over the same period. Global phosphate shipments are forecast to decline to approximately 65 million tonnes in 2026, down from peaks near 75-77 million tonnes in recent years, indicating supply constraints that should support pricing.
Strategic Initiatives & Capital Reallocation
Mosaic outlined four key strategic pillars designed to position the company for recovery: normalizing production and costs, reallocating capital, leveraging market access, and redefining growth.
The company’s comprehensive strategic framework is illustrated below:
Under the "Normalize Production and Costs" pillar, management emphasized disciplined cost management and raw material sourcing, with phosphate operations ready to restart once markets normalize. Higher potash production volumes and lower unit costs are expected in the second half of 2026 and beyond.
The "Reallocate Capital" initiative has resulted in significant progress. The company reduced its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $1.2 billion and completed the Carlsbad sale in April 2026. The Araxá sale process is advancing with multiple indications of interest.
For "Leverage Market Access," Mosaic highlighted how its global network enabled the company to meet customer demand worldwide, while MF distribution managed through challenging credit conditions with sequential margin improvement.
The "Redefine Growth" pillar showcased Mosaic Biosciences, which launched 5 new products in the first half of 2026 and is targeting 8-10 product launches for the full year. MF co-product margins in Q2 improved significantly compared with Q1.
A competitive advantage for Mosaic is its ability to consistently outperform benchmark stripping margins through integrated operations and strategic contracting.
The historical stripping margin outperformance is demonstrated in this analysis:
Mosaic’s quarterly realized stripping margin has typically exceeded the benchmark in most market scenarios, with recent quarters Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 showing positive outperformance of approximately $50-60 per metric tonne. Management attributed this to quarterly contracted sulfur rates that limit exposure to market price volatility, internally produced and contracted ammonia that provides a cost advantage versus non-integrated producers, and raw material cost timing through COGS that smooths stripping margin variance over time.
The Mosaic Biosciences growth initiative represents a significant diversification opportunity for the company.
As shown in the following growth trajectory:
Net sales are expected to double in 2026, reaching $135+ million compared to $68 million in 2025, $27 million in 2024, and just $13 million in 2023. The innovation platform has already launched 5 products in the first half of 2026 across Brazil, India, and China, with 8-10 total product launches planned for the year. The company now has product sales in 18 countries with over 60 total registrations globally.
Liquidity Position & Forward Guidance
Despite the challenging operating environment, Mosaic emphasized its strong liquidity position. Total liquidity capacity stands at $3.5 billion, comprising a $2.5 billion revolver and commercial paper facility, $0.7 billion in inventory financing and other facilities, and $0.3 billion in cash. The company established a $1 billion term loan to replace and extend very short-term commercial paper maturities, demonstrating proactive balance sheet management.
For the third quarter of 2026, Mosaic provided the following guidance: phosphate sales volumes of 1.1 to 1.4 million tonnes, DAP FOB plant prices of $820 to $840 per tonne, potash sales volumes of 2.0 to 2.2 million tonnes, and MOP FOB mine prices of $270 to $290 per tonne.
Full year 2026 guidance includes potash production volumes of 9.0 million tonnes, total capital expenditures of $1.2 billion, depreciation, depletion and amortization of $1.1 to $1.2 billion, selling, general and administrative expenses of $510 to $530 million, net interest expense of $220 to $240 million, and cash tax of $250 to $300 million.
The company’s pricing sensitivities indicate that each $10 per tonne change in average DAP FOB plant prices impacts adjusted EBITDA by $60 million, while each $10 per tonne change in average MOP FOB mine prices impacts adjusted EBITDA by $83 million (including the impact of Canadian Resource Tax).
Management characterized the current period as one where the company is working through difficult market conditions by managing controllable factors and positioning for eventual recovery. The presentation emphasized constructive long-term macro tailwinds, including strong harvest and higher acreage driving nutrient depletion, improving fertilizer affordability, and supply constraints that should support pricing as markets normalize.
Full presentation:
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